JakeHolman

M A G A >> WINNING! NO COLLUSION NO OBSTRUCTION

28,346 posts in this topic

Even if Ryan keeps his job, he'll have just a narrow majority. And he'll have to deal with all those tea party members. Good luck.

Don't forget the "Freedom Caucus" in the House.  Although that tends to overlap with the Tea Party people.

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The House as a whole is more important than the Senate. As long as the GOP keeps the House, there will be checks and balances.

Except where the Supreme Court and other appointments are concerned.  Of course that gets into the 60 vote majority rule.

Don't expect the House to flip to Dems.  As has been said, gerrymandering and voter suppression will insure Republican majority for a long time to come.

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Thursday, Oct. 13, 11:15 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com (4 person race):  


Clinton has 87.1% chance of winning vs. 12.9% for Trump.


Electoral College projections:  Clinton - 342; Trump - 195.  270 wins.


 


Senate Polls:  Thursday, Oct 13, 8:00 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com


Chance of winning control: Polls OnlyDemocrats - 53.8%; Republicans - 46.2% .


Polls Plus: Democrats - 56%; Republicans - 44%.  Reps. lose 5 and pick up 1.


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I don't think for a minute that the House is going to flip.  Heck, I'm not even convinced Hillary Clinton will be elected President.  Getting the Senate to flip seems less likely to me.  Democrats seem likely to pick up three states (Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana).  Republicans are primed to hang onto three (Ohio, Missouri, Florida).  Nevada could flip to the Republican side, and that leaves three contested races where Democrats need to win two out of three to get the slimmest of majorities (assuming a Clinton-Kaine victory in which the Vice President would break tie votes).  New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina could be in for long nights as all those races look to be very close.  It's been my experience that voters tend to punish Democratic candidates more than Republican ones, even if they are enveloped in similar scandals or take similar stands on unpopular issues.

I try not to make political predictions, but unless something truly explosive

happens in the next three and a half weeks, it's hard to see how Trump can

win. I haven't been following the Senate races that closely, but I think the Dems

have a decent chance to regain the Senate, but probably not the House.

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Even if Ryan keeps his job, he'll have just a narrow majority. And he'll have to deal with all those tea party members. Good luck.

I almost feel sorry for the guy. It looks like he's going to become

another John Boehner. Speaking of which, I'll bet Johnny just

got back from the links and is enjoying a fine whiskey in the club

house bar. Life is good.

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I almost feel sorry for the guy. It looks like he's going to become

another John Boehner. Speaking of which, I'll bet Johnny just

got back from the links and is enjoying a fine whiskey in the club

house bar. Life is good.

 

No kidding. A fat pension, great medical coverage. What's to worry about? Yeah, it's not going to be a fun job for Ryan. The congressmen have been too busy running for re-election to bother much about legislative issues. Will be much different next year. Esp. if Hillary wins.

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No kidding. A fat pension, great medical coverage. What's to worry about? Yeah, it's not going to be a fun job for Ryan. The congressmen have been too busy running for re-election to bother much about legislative issues. Will be much different next year. Esp. if Hillary wins.

I suppose with the fame of Trump, Boehner is now the old orange.

I think the blueprints for a bomb shelter might be a good Christmas

present for Ryan. Incoming!!!

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RIG ALERT: New Analysis Shows Heavily Biased Polling Techniques by WSJ/NBC

 

You mean this NBC poll was rigged?: 

 

MEET THE PRESS

 

JAN 28 2016, 6:27 AM ET

 

Trump Strong in Three Early States as Clinton and Sanders Battle: Poll

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/trump-strong-three-early-states-clinton-sanders-battle-poll-n505516

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Hey, be nice to Jake. Every time Trump drops in the polls, he adds another line to his signature. By election day, he'll be posting War and Peace with each copy/paste he treats us with.

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Hey, be nice to Jake. Every time Trump drops in the polls, he adds another line to his signature. By election day, he'll be posting War and Peace with each copy/paste he treats us with.

 

It is amusing that Jake has taken to quoting Orwell, a man whose socialism makes Bernie Sanders look almost right-wing!

 

"The Spanish Civil War played the most important part in defining Orwell's socialism. He wrote to Cyril Connolly from Barcelona on 8 June 1937: "I have seen wonderful things and at last really believe in Socialism, which I never did before."

 

"...The other crucial dimension to Orwell's socialism was his recognition that the Soviet Union was not socialist. Unlike many on the left, instead of abandoning socialism once he discovered the full horror of Stalinist rule in the Soviet Union, Orwell abandoned the Soviet Union and instead remained a socialist—indeed he became more committed to the socialist cause than ever."

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9.png

 

1. Middle class has a very specific meaning in the UK -- not like here. Orwell criticized their socialism, but not real socialism; but more to the point:

 

2. "The Road to Wigan Pier is a book by the British writer George Orwell, first published in 1937. The first half of this work documents his sociological investigations of the bleak living conditions among the working class in Lancashire and Yorkshire in the industrial north of England before World War II. The second half is a long essay on his middle-class upbringing, and the development of his political conscience, questioning British attitudes towards socialism. Orwell states plainly that he himself is in favour of socialism, but feels it necessary to point out reasons why many people who would benefit from socialism, and should logically support it, are in practice likely to be strong opponents."

 

The point of the above is that he's talking about you, Jake, when he says that people who "should logically support it, are in practice likely to be strong opponents." Meaning people like you let people like Trump pull the wool over your eyes, because you can be manipulated by con artists like Trump and that whole ilk of super rich who know how to pull your strings for their own benefit.

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"The truth is that to many people calling themselves Socialists, revolution does not mean a movement of the masses with which they hope to associate themselves; it means a set of reforms which 'we,' the clever ones, are going to impose upon 'them,' the Lower Orders."

 

George Orwell

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Hey, be nice to Jake. Every time Trump drops in the polls, he adds another line to his signature. By election day, he'll be posting War and Peace with each copy/paste he treats us with.

 

Lawrence watch out-- I think Tolstoy was an anarchist.

 

Jake's favorite novel is a little closer to home--

 

AUTANT EN EMPORTE LE VENT-- oh I forgot I read it in French It's--

 

 

Gone with the Wind-- that was my mother's favorite novel too.LOL

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9.png

 

This is my opinion of how Donald Trump, the Ivy League Wharton graduate who went to private schools all his life, must look down upon the American working class types who fervently attend his rallies.

 

One of these days they're going to get a tape from Trump Tower of what he really thinks of them.

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To be honest, I never understood the meaning of election polls.  Why do we have them?  Is it to create a sense that an election is so close that voter turnout has to be prodded so we can pat ourselves on the back and say, "democracy in action is great...and nobody does it better than the United States"?  Is it to shame people into voting or shake your head over those who don't, especially if an election comes down to a re-count or has to be settled by drawing lots or flipping a coin?

 

Granted, I have participated in polls before (three times).  The first time was in 1984.  The last time was 2010.  I don't usually offer my opinions on political matters unless I am asked, so I was a willing participant and I answered the pollster's questions as honestly as I could to the best of my ability.  I don't know for sure how accurate any poll is.  By the same token, as much as I'd like to think my vote matters and will be counted, recorded, and reported accurately, there's that nagging doubt that any vote I made could be disqualified because I did not fill in the oval properly next to a candidate's name.

 

There was a brief discussion on one of these threads about yard signs and whether or not they accurately signify an area or a region's preference come Election Day.  I think the bigger question is for those who DO NOT have yard signs.  Once you get into the privacy of the voting booth or sit down to look at your mail-in ballot at home, no pre-election poll matters.  Maybe Americans are closet TCM fans....they like a good mystery from time to time?

 

:)

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I suppose with the fame of Trump, Boehner is now the old orange.

I think the blueprints for a bomb shelter might be a good Christmas

present for Ryan. Incoming!!!

 

 

LOL!

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Friday, Oct. 14, 1:30 PM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com (4 person race):  


Clinton has 85.7% chance of winning vs. 14.3% for Trump.


Electoral College projections:  Clinton - 338; Trump - 198.  270 wins.


 


Senate Polls:  Friday, Oct. 14, Noon:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com


Chance of winning control: Polls Only : Democrats - 56.1%; Republicans - 43.9%.


Polls Plus: Democrats - 60.6%; Republicans - 39.4%.  


 

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And by the time Georgie got there, Wigan pier was gone.

Orwell himself examines how his middle class upbringing

gave him a feeling of some disgust at the habits of the

working class, including their smells and general dirtiness.

He goes into some detail about the smells of the working

class, and it's hard not to conclude that, try as he might,

he still had some feeling of that disgust as an adult.

Victor Gollancz, who helped commission The Road to

Wigan Pier (for the Left Book Club) wrote a foreword

to the book in which he argues with many of Orwell's

points. One of his criticisms is that Orwell never writes

much about the actual nuts and bolts of socialism, and

how it will work in the real world. He just seems to assume

it will come about. In the second part of the book there

are some humorous passages about socialists. Orwell's

take is that one reason people shy away from socialism

is that its individual representatives seem rather bizarre

to the "ordinary" person. He goes on quite a riff about

the vegetarian, scandal-wearing, bohemian, wispy bearded

types who turn people away from socialism. Whatever your

politics, it's a wonderful book.

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Sunday, Oct. 16, 10:00 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com (4 person race):  


Clinton has 86.1% chance of winning vs. 13.9% for Trump.


Electoral College projections:  Clinton - 339; Trump - 198.  270 wins.


 


Senate Polls:  Sunday, Oct. 16, 10:00 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com


Chance of winning control: Polls Only : Democrats - 60.9%; Republicans - 39.1%.


Polls Plus: Democrats - 65.2%; Republicans - 34.8%.  


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Washington Post-ABC News poll: Clinton holds four-point lead in aftermath of Trump tape

Overall, Clinton leads Trump by 47-43 percent among likely voters, a slight edge given the survey’s four-percentage-point error margin. Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson has the support of 5 percent, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is at 2 percent. Among registered voters, the poll shows a similar four-point margin, with Clinton at 44, Trump at 40, Johnson at 6 and Stein at 3. In a two-way matchup, Clinton leads Trump by 50-46 percent among likely voters and by 50-44 percent among registered voters.

WASHINGTON POST > https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/washington-post-abc-news-poll-clinton-holds-four-point-lead-in-aftermath-of-trump-tape/2016/10/15/c31969a4-9231-11e6-9c52-0b10449e33c4_story.html

WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR

https%3A%2F%2Fblueprint-api-production.s

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Washington Post-ABC News poll: Clinton holds four-point lead in aftermath of Trump tape

 

WITHIN THE MARGIN OF ERROR

 

 

Good news, eh, Jake? You're hoping to get your thin skinned petty snit-inclined three ring circus nothing-wrong-with-other-countries-getting-nukes racist sexual assaulter into the Oval Office yet.

 

If this poll is accurate, it's a depressing, disgusting comment on all those deplorables who turned their back on his lewd tape (and dismiss the comments of the, so far, eight women who said that he assaulted them).

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If this poll is accurate, it's a depressing, disgusting comment on all those deplorables who turned their back on his lewd tape (and dismiss the comments of the, so far, eight women who said that he assaulted them).

 

They don't care what he did or does, only what he says he'll do. I heard Ann Coulter defending him the other night by saying that as long as he says he's for the wall and for getting rid of Muslims (neither of which he stills supports, btw, but that's another tale), then they don't care about the "sex stuff".

 

The Republican party: Just tell us what we want to hear, regardless of your character or ability to make it happen.

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