JakeHolman

M A G A >> WINNING! WINNING! WINNING!

30,296 posts in this topic

Good news, eh, Jake? You're hoping to get your thin skinned petty snit-inclined three ring circus nothing-wrong-with-other-countries-getting-nukes racist sexual assaulter into the Oval Office yet.

 

If this poll is accurate, it's a depressing, disgusting comment on all those deplorables who turned their back on his lewd tape (and dismiss the comments of the, so far, eight women who said that he assaulted them).

 

NBC has Hillary up by 10/11%; CBS has Hillary up in all battleground states.

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Good news, eh, Jake? You're hoping to get your thin skinned petty snit-inclined three ring circus nothing-wrong-with-other-countries-getting-nukes racist sexual assaulter into the Oval Office yet.

 

If this poll is accurate, it's a depressing, disgusting comment on all those deplorables who turned their back on his lewd tape (and dismiss the comments of the, so far, eight women who said that he assaulted them).

 

Bill Maher on Fareed's CNN show this morning said he knew that he shared the same country with many racists, etc. but he had no idea that there were so many.  And he called all of the Trump supporters deplorable for ignoring what Herr Trump's true message is, not just 50%.

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Interesting that when polls showed Trump ahead by less than four points, JakeHolman (in BIG LETTERS) shouted that it showed Trump would win.

Now with Clinton ahead by four points, it is "within the margin of error."  Regardless Trump is still behind and more than that in all other polls.

 

Incidentally, Trump has dropped in the fiverthirtyeight.com polls since this morning.

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They don't care what he did or does, only what he says he'll do. I heard Ann Coulter defending him the other night by saying that as long as he says he's for the wall and for getting rid of Muslims (neither of which he stills supports, btw, but that's another tale), then they don't care about the "sex stuff".

 

The Republican party: Just tell us what we want to hear, regardless of your character or ability to make it happen.

 

Does all this start to remind you of the Roman Empire--

Gladiators and throwing Christians to the Lions--

 

Anything to keep the people amused and ignorance is bliss

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Monday, Oct. 17, 9:30 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com (4 person race):  


Clinton has 87.3% chance of winning vs. 12.7% for Trump.


Electoral College projections:  Clinton - 343; Trump - 194.  270 wins.


 


Senate Polls:  Monday, Oct. 17, 8:30 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com


Chance of winning control: Polls Only : Democrats - 63.7%; Republicans - 36.3%.


Polls Plus: Democrats - 68.5%; Republicans - 31.5%.  


KY, NC, FL and MO leaning GOP; PA, NH, NV, IN, WI and IL leaning DEM in Polls Plus.


 


Margin of error.  If Clinton has leads by four points and that is within margin of error, doesn't that also mean she could really be leading by eight points?


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Tuesday, Oct. 18, 9:00 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com (4 person race):  


Clinton has 87.7% chance of winning vs. 12.2% for Trump.


Electoral College projections:  Clinton - 344; Trump - 192.  270 wins.


 


Senate Polls:  Monday, Oct. 17, 8:30 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com


Chance of winning control: Polls Only : Democrats - 70.6%; Republicans - 29.4%.


                                     Polls Plus: Democrats - 73.8%; Republicans - 26.2%.  


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Survey Monkey poll of 15 battleground states show Clinton holds clear advantage over Trump.  FL, TX, AZ, OH lean Trump, but still ruled a toss up.  All others are Clinton by 4 or more points.  NV and Iowa are Trump by 4/5 points.

 

Quinnipiac poll puts Clinton up in PA, FL and CO, tied in OH.

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Just wondering if anyone else here has participated in any phone polling in recent months.  Many people I know don't even bother to answer such calls, or don't have a landline phone anymore.

 

Tuesday, I answered a phone call from TPC Research, located in CO.  It was the second time in the past few months I had taken one of their automated, multiple choice political polls. 

 

They don't say who is using the information they gather, but this particular poll is definitely biased, based on the wording and options of two crucial questions.  When asked, "if the election were held today, who I'd vote for, the options were 1) Trump, 2) HRC and 3) undecided or other.  Upon selecting the third option, they repeated the first two choices, but replaced the third with something along the lines of "decline to vote."  If one intended to vote for another candidate, it didn't matter to them.  After which, they moved on to the down ticket questions.

 

This is why it's hard to take polling seriously, when they're not uniform and have an obvious agenda.

 

Anyone else have any polling stories to share?

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Survey Monkey poll of 15 battleground states show Clinton holds clear advantage over Trump.  FL, TX, AZ, OH lean Trump, but still ruled a toss up.  All others are Clinton by 4 or more points.  NV and Iowa are Trump by 4/5 points.

 

Quinnipiac poll puts Clinton up in PA, FL and CO, tied in OH.

I don't know how valid on-line polls like Survey Monkey really are, but I guess it is what it is.  Monmouth Poll showed Clinton up by 7 in Nevada.

A new poll just released this morning from Arizona shows Clinton with a 5 point lead.  It may have been a typo, but Jill Stein was clobbering Gary Johnson in the same poll, 6 vs. 1 per cent (one of the few polls where she is beating him).  Clinton had 39 and Trump 34.  That would indicate that 20 per cent are either undecided or prefer someone else.

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Just wondering if anyone else here has participated in any phone polling in recent months.  Many people I know don't even bother to answer such calls, or don't have a landline phone anymore.

 

Tuesday, I answered a phone call from TPC Research, located in CO.  It was the second time in the past few months I had taken one of their automated, multiple choice political polls. 

 

They don't say who is using the information they gather, but this particular poll is definitely biased, based on the wording and options of two crucial questions.  When asked, "if the election were held today, who I'd vote for, the options were 1) Trump, 2) HRC and 3) undecided or other.  Upon selecting the third option, they repeated the first two choices, but replaced the third with something along the lines of "decline to vote."  If one intended to vote for another candidate, it didn't matter to them.  After which, they moved on to the down ticket questions.

 

This is why it's hard to take polling seriously, when they're not uniform and have an obvious agenda.

 

Anyone else have any polling stories to share?

I have been polled for Presidential elections three times (1984, 1996, 2004).  In all instances, the polls were done on a land line by a real person asking the questions.  I have been polled twice in non-presidential years (2002 and 2010).  In the non-presidential years, I could tell there was a particular slant toward the questions asked of me (one was liberal, one was conservative).  In both instances, I answered the questions based on my convictions and not necessarily what the pollsters wanted to hear.

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I don't always watch "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, but I will catch it if Steve Schmidt is one of the guests.  He's a Republican strategist who worked on John McCain's campaign in 2008, and I enjoy hearing his take on the state of his party and the election in general.

 

Today, he said based on internal polling numbers from various candidates across the country, Democrats will get a majority to control the Senate.  Republicans would maintain their majority in the House.  Currently, it's 54-46 Republican in the Senate, and Democrats would need to flip 5 races for an outright majority.  Republicans control the House 246-186, and would have to lose 31 seats to cede control.

 

Schmidt said if the election were held today, Republicans would lose 25 seats in the House, and Hillary Clinton could top 400 in the Electoral College.  It would equate to a wave election this time around, if the trends over the next three weeks continue the way they have the last two weeks.

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Just wondering if anyone else here has participated in any phone polling in recent months.  Many people I know don't even bother to answer such calls, or don't have a landline phone anymore.

 

Tuesday, I answered a phone call from TPC Research, located in CO.  It was the second time in the past few months I had taken one of their automated, multiple choice political polls. 

 

They don't say who is using the information they gather, but this particular poll is definitely biased, based on the wording and options of two crucial questions.  When asked, "if the election were held today, who I'd vote for, the options were 1) Trump, 2) HRC and 3) undecided or other.  Upon selecting the third option, they repeated the first two choices, but replaced the third with something along the lines of "decline to vote."  If one intended to vote for another candidate, it didn't matter to them.  After which, they moved on to the down ticket questions.

 

This is why it's hard to take polling seriously, when they're not uniform and have an obvious agenda.

 

Anyone else have any polling stories to share?

Still have a land line and cell is off most of the time.  I don't answer calls unless my caller ID shows it is a phone number or name I recognize.  Get almost no calls from anything that looks like a polling operation.  Got one call this year from something that said some kind of research and call started off with a lot of long automated questions so I hung up.

Often wonder how accurate polling is now.

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Wednesday, Oct. 19, 9:00 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com (4 person race):  


Clinton has 87.2% chance of winning vs. 12.8% for Trump.


Electoral College projections:  Clinton - 345; Trump - 192.  270 wins.


 


Senate Polls:  Wednesday, Oct. 18, 9:00 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com


Chance of winning control: Polls Only : Democrats - 74.2%; Republicans - 25.8%.


                                     Polls Plus: Democrats - 76.2%; Republicans - 23.8%.  


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I don't always watch "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, but I will catch it if Steve Schmidt is one of the guests.  He's a Republican strategist who worked on John McCain's campaign in 2008, and I enjoy hearing his take on the state of his party and the election in general.

 

Today, he said based on internal polling numbers from various candidates across the country, Democrats will get a majority to control the Senate.  Republicans would maintain their majority in the House.  Currently, it's 54-46 Republican in the Senate, and Democrats would need to flip 5 races for an outright majority.  Republicans control the House 246-186, and would have to lose 31 seats to cede control.

 

Schmidt said if the election were held today, Republicans would lose 25 seats in the House, and Hillary Clinton could top 400 in the Electoral College.  It would equate to a wave election this time around, if the trends over the next three weeks continue the way they have the last two weeks.

I very seldom watch Morning Joe, or as some wit here called it, Moaning Joe, because Scarborough is too offensive.  Not his politics, but his manner, the way he interrupts other people and so forth. They really need to replace him.

While I am hopeful that the Dems. do gain control of the senate, it will be close.  As for the house, the GOP will keep that due to gerrymandering and voter suppression. Even if GOP loses lot of seats in house, they will gain them back in two years.

Forget which one, but some GOP senator has stated that even if Hillary wins and the Dems gain control of senate, the GOPers will prevent appointment of anyone to the Supreme Court.

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I very seldom watch Morning Joe, or as some wit here called it, Moaning Joe, because Scarborough is too offensive.  Not his politics, but his manner, the way he interrupts other people and so forth. They really need to replace him.

While I am hopeful that the Dems. do gain control of the senate, it will be close.  As for the house, the GOP will keep that due to gerrymandering and voter suppression. Even if GOP loses lot of seats in house, they will gain them back in two years.

Forget which one, but some GOP senator has stated that even if Hillary wins and the Dems gain control of senate, the GOPers will prevent appointment of anyone to the Supreme Court.

They CAN'T replace him. because "Morning Joe" is a nice play on words. They'd have to replace him with someone else named Joe. Maybe Joe Biden is looking for a new gig.

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They CAN'T replace him. because "Morning Joe" is a nice play on words. They'd have to replace him with someone else named Joe. Maybe Joe Biden is looking for a new gig.

Now that's an idea.

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Wednesday, Oct. 19, 10:30 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com (4 person race):  


Clinton has 87.6% chance of winning vs. 12.4% for Trump.


Electoral College projections:  Clinton - 346; Trump - 191.  270 wins.


 


Senate Polls:  Wednesday, Oct. 18, 9:15 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com


Chance of winning control: Polls Only : Democrats - 74.6%; Republicans - 25.4%.


                                     Polls Plus: Democrats - 76.8%; Republicans - 23.2%.  


 


You can post in bigger letters, but that doesn't change the facts.


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Now that's an idea.

 

YES. Moanin' Joe is so obnoxious. He never shuts up! UGH.

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I don't always watch "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, but I will catch it if Steve Schmidt is one of the guests.  He's a Republican strategist who worked on John McCain's campaign in 2008, and I enjoy hearing his take on the state of his party and the election in general.

 

Today, he said based on internal polling numbers from various candidates across the country, Democrats will get a majority to control the Senate.  Republicans would maintain their majority in the House.  Currently, it's 54-46 Republican in the Senate, and Democrats would need to flip 5 races for an outright majority.  Republicans control the House 246-186, and would have to lose 31 seats to cede control.

 

Schmidt said if the election were held today, Republicans would lose 25 seats in the House, and Hillary Clinton could top 400 in the Electoral College.  It would equate to a wave election this time around, if the trends over the next three weeks continue the way they have the last two weeks.

 

 

Between Dem gains and Tea Party members, Ryan has his work cut out for him!

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Just wondering if anyone else here has participated in any phone polling in recent months.  Many people I know don't even bother to answer such calls, or don't have a landline phone anymore.

 

Tuesday, I answered a phone call from TPC Research, located in CO.  It was the second time in the past few months I had taken one of their automated, multiple choice political polls. 

 

They don't say who is using the information they gather, but this particular poll is definitely biased, based on the wording and options of two crucial questions.  When asked, "if the election were held today, who I'd vote for, the options were 1) Trump, 2) HRC and 3) undecided or other.  Upon selecting the third option, they repeated the first two choices, but replaced the third with something along the lines of "decline to vote."  If one intended to vote for another candidate, it didn't matter to them.  After which, they moved on to the down ticket questions.

 

This is why it's hard to take polling seriously, when they're not uniform and have an obvious agenda.

 

Anyone else have any polling stories to share?

 

 

I've never been polled. Still have my land line...

 

It's possible I may have been called. I dont pick up unless I hear who's calling (on the answering machine)...

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Wednesday, Oct. 19, 11:20 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com (4 person race):  


Clinton has 88.1% chance of winning vs. 11.9% for Trump.


Electoral College projections:  Clinton - 346; Trump - 191.  270 wins.


 


Senate Polls:  Wednesday, Oct. 18, 11:20 AM:  Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com


Chance of winning control: Polls Only : Democrats - 74.7%; Republicans - 25.3%.


                                     Polls Plus: Democrats - 77%; Republicans - 23%.  


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ACTUARIAL REVIEW: Analysis of Recent Polls Shows Trump Win and Possible Landslide
Ann Coulter warned in her book Slander in 2003 that the far left main stream media always uses polls to push their agenda. Polls can be skewed by selecting an unreasonable sample size, by asking lead up questions or by selecting more of a sample population of one side of an issue to achieve a desired result.

Main stream media skews polls to discourage potential voters from voting and has done it for years.

A good example of the media trying to shape a vote was in 1980. In a Gallup poll released on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan 47 – 39. Two weeks later Reagan won in such a landslide that Carter conceded before California was closed.

GATEWAY PUNDIT > http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/10/actuarial-review-of-recent-polls-shows-trump-win-and-possible-landslide/

HAIL TRUMPUS MAXIMUS!

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