JakeHolman

M A G A >> WINNING!

27,132 posts in this topic

Real Clear Politics Average, as or 09/17/16:

Clinton - 41.9;  Trump - 40.8; Johnson - 8.3; Stein - 2.7

 

FiveThirtyEight as of 09/17/16 Electoral Votes in four-way race;

Clinton -289;  Trump - 248; Johnson - 4; Stein - 0

Clinton has a 60% chance of winning the election.

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Real Clear Politics Average, as or 09/17/16:

Clinton - 41.9;  Trump - 40.8; Johnson - 8.3; Stein - 2.7

 

FiveThirtyEight as of 09/17/16 Electoral Votes in four-way race;

Clinton -289;  Trump - 248; Johnson - 4; Stein - 0

Clinton has a 60% chance of winning the election.

"for the moment, mr. grady, only for the moment." -jack nicholson, the shining

 

:D

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It's hilarious how the "mainstream media" is covering up - as in not talking about - all the dirt that was recently released by WikiLeaks.

 

That's the only reason she's still at 60 percent.

 

The media is determined to get her elected, just like every official body everywhere. The FBI, the DOJ, the Military, every Corporation in the world.

 

Voting against Clinton has become the ultimate statement of resistance. 7 more weeks.

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FiveThirtyEight summary of polls (Electoral Votes)  With Trump taking FL, NC, OH, IA:  270 WINS.

Clinton:  288

Trump:   248

 

I lived in OH before moving to IA, and IMO there's no way she's going to win either one, let alone both.  It's sheer folly to count them in her win column at this point.  In IA, when Harkin retired, his Senate seat went to Ernst, Grassley has no competition from Judge, and we have a Republican governor, who is pretty popular. 

 

Other than traditional Dem. strongholds like Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus and Youngstown, the rest of OH leans strongly Republican.  Cincinnati is a particularly good example of that, and lots of rural areas also vote Republican.  The DNC has no confidence in Ted Strickland, judging by their withholding campaign funds:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/08/29/democrats-delay-ad-spending-on-ohio-senate-race/

 

Poll watching is fun, though.

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I as

 

I lived in OH before moving to IA, and IMO there's no way she's going to win either one, let alone both.  It's sheer folly to count them in her win column at this point.  In IA, when Harkin retired, his Senate seat went to Ernst, Grassley has no competition from Judge, and we have a Republican governor, who is pretty popular. 

 

Other than traditional Dem. strongholds like Cleveland, Toledo, Columbus and Youngstown, the rest of OH leans strongly Republican.  Cincinnati is a particularly good example of that, and lots of rural areas also vote Republican.  The DNC has no confidence in Ted Strickland, judging by their withholding campaign funds:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/08/29/democrats-delay-ad-spending-on-ohio-senate-race/

 

Poll watching is fun, though.

I assume you noticed that the post I made showed Trump taking OH and IA, not Clinton.  But Clinton still wins the election.

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I as

 

I assume you noticed that the post I made showed Trump taking OH and IA, not Clinton.  But Clinton still wins the election.

 

Oops.  My bad.  Time to step away from the computer for a bit.

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But Clinton still wins the election.

 

I believe that is the most probable outcome as well.

 

Puke-worthy, but probable.

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tied across batleground states and donny ain't even declucked her yet in the first debate.

 

 

Imperious Donny,

 

Mighty Man of America

 

 

a man like trump loves the feud.

 

hell is where he's goin'?

 

uh-uh, he'll be waitin' for them there.

 

 

TRUMPUS MAXIMUS AMERICANUS!!! 

 

tenth power emanations

 

:D 

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75 million plus estimated for the 1st debate. Blood is in the water. Time for the kill for:

 

TRUMPUS MAXIMUS AMERICANUS!

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75 million plus estimated for the 1st debate. Blood is in the water. Time for the kill for:

 

TRUMPUS MAXIMUS AMERICANUS!

the other side wanted this...

 

they got it!   :D 

 

"just name the place, baby" -oddball, kelly's heroes

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As of 09/18/16:

FiveThirtyEight Summary of Polls (Four Candidates):  270 WINS! Clinton has 61% chance of winning.

Clinton - 290

Trump -  247

 

Real Clear Politics (Four Candidates):

Clinton - 41.0%

Trump - 40.3

Johnson - 8.6

Stein - 3.1

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As of 09/18/16:

FiveThirtyEight Summary of Polls (Four Candidates):  270 WINS! Clinton has 61% chance of winning.

Clinton - 290

Trump -  247

 

Real Clear Politics (Four Candidates):

Clinton - 41.0%

Trump - 40.3

Johnson - 8.6

Stein - 3.1

certainly not insurmountable for donny, is it TheCid? :D

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certainly not insurmountable for donny, is it TheCid? :D

 

When the cheating in the counting is added for Hillary's benefit, it may be.

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certainly not insurmountable for donny, is it TheCid? :D

Nor is it insurmountable or unlikely that the closer we get to Nov, the greater the margin of Clinton's lead will be.

Main point is that in the most accurate polling data, Clinton leads in liklihood of exceeding the 270 needed for a win in the Electoral College.

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Nate Silver: Trump surges from 3% to 48% chance of winning

The latest vote projection from elections guru Nate Silver has Republican Donald Trump just six Electoral Votes short of winning and one point away from equaling Hillary Rodham Clinton's popular vote.

 

WASHINGTON EXAMINER > http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/nate-silver-trump-surges-from-3-to-48-chance-of-winning-in-1-month/article/2602386

 

TRUMPUS MAXIMUS AMERICANUS!

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FiveThirtyEight (09/21) Summary of Polls (Four Candidates):  270 WINS! Clinton has 57% chance of winning.


Clinton - 280


Trump -  257


This is Nate Silver's polling site.


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FiveThirtyEight (09/21) Summary of Polls (Four Candidates):  270 WINS! Clinton has 57% chance of winning.

Clinton - 280

Trump -  257

This is Nate Silver's polling site.

 

 

Wasn't it 65% four days ago? And 60% two days ago.

 

Now it's 57%?

 

How many more days till the vote?

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Wasn't it 65% four days ago? And 60% two days ago.

 

Now it's 57%?

 

How many more days till the vote?

 

You're right. If something doesn't change, and things continue as is, Trump wins. 

 

At this point I almost want it to happen. You know how if there's one really dumb kid who keeps trying to put his hand on the hot stove, and you keep telling him no, but he keeps trying, so eventually you just have to let him touch it to see why it was a bad idea? Maybe America needs to stick its hand in some hot Trump.

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You're right. If something doesn't change, and things continue as is, Trump wins. 

 

At this point I almost want it to happen. You know how if there's one really dumb kid who keeps trying to put his hand on the hot stove, and you keep telling him no, but he keeps trying, so eventually you just have to let him touch it to see why it was a bad idea? Maybe America needs to stick its hand in some hot Trump.

that's how I feel.

 

take it like men!

 

you all took a dangerous gamble with hillary and it's backfiring.

 

doan blame us!

 

you all wanted us to empower donny.

 

I guess it's true. be careful what you wish for. :lol:

 

as for donny, he's either gonna be a nightmare or the greatest american political strongman anyone ever saw!

 

soups up! the fun is coming.

 

enjoy. :D

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You're right. If something doesn't change, and things continue as is, Trump wins. 

 

At this point I almost want it to happen. You know how if there's one really dumb kid who keeps trying to put his hand on the hot stove, and you keep telling him no, but he keeps trying, so eventually you just have to let him touch it to see why it was a bad idea? Maybe America needs to stick its hand in some hot Trump.

Maybe after 3 months, Congress will say to him, "You're fired!"

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Wasn't it 65% four days ago? And 60% two days ago.

 

Now it's 57%?

 

How many more days till the vote?

It does fluctuate and Clinton is losing ground.  But as Nate Silver says on the site, it will get more accurate the closer we get to the election itself.  It's about 7 weeks off.  Don't you know when you are going to vote?

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Maybe after 3 months, Congress will say to him, "You're fired!"

Never happen.  The GOPers in the House would never indict him.  Paul Ryan would never let it get to a floor vote.  Too afraid of being primaried out of office in 2018.  Even if they did, little chance there would be the 2/3 votes in Senate to convict him.

 

My greatest concern about a Trump presidency would be his appointments to the Supreme Court.  And the Senate will confirm whoever he nominates, assuming the GOPers retain a majority.

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