TheCid

2018 Elections

267 posts in this topic

Happy New Year and best wishes!

The primaries are only a few months away and for many races, that is the real election.  In many districts, counties, states, whoever wins the primary wins the election.  So these primaries are critical.

In addition, whoever wins the primaries for Nov. contested races will determine the success of those elections.  If a poor candidate is nominated, the other party may very well win.  As in AL special election for senate.  Any other Republican would have won that race due to the factors present in AL.

With more Trump nominees being approved for appointment to courts, the chances of voter suppression, gerrymandering and similar laws being overturned diminishes.

One irony in S.C. is that the incumbent gov. got his job because Trump appointed Haley to UN.  He was first elected GOPer in SC to endorse Trump.  His biggest opponent is now doing as much as she can to get support from Trump and portray herself as a hard core Trump supporter.  Will be curious to see if Trump picks a choice.

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In MI it became more interesting in the case of a special election to fill the seat vacated by the retiring John Conyers.

It was assumed his nephew would automatically step in.  And now there's the possibility of TVs judge GREG MATHIS, a retired 36th district court judge throwing his hat in the ring.

Sepiatone

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44 minutes ago, Sepiatone said:

In MI it became more interesting in the case of a special election to fill the seat vacated by the retiring John Conyers.

It was assumed his nephew would automatically step in.  And now there's the possibility of TVs judge GREG MATHIS, a retired 36th district court judge throwing his hat in the ring.

:lol: I'd vote for him!

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'Anti-Trump Rhetoric Not Enough': Bold, Progressive Agenda Demanded for 2018-

"We must act together. And we must act strategically. 2018 is the year the people fight back like never before."

...." Empty platitudes and anti-Trump rhetoric is not enough to win seats in Congress," said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who in 2017 emerged as one of the Democratic Party's most powerful critics of corporate power. "In 2018, Democrats need a bold economic vision which includes investing in education, healthcare, and opportunities for every American." ....

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/01/01/anti-trump-rhetoric-not-enough-bold-progressive-agenda-demanded-2018

:)

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26 minutes ago, mr6666 said:

'Anti-Trump Rhetoric Not Enough': Bold, Progressive Agenda Demanded for 2018-

"We must act together. And we must act strategically. 2018 is the year the people fight back like never before."

...." Empty platitudes and anti-Trump rhetoric is not enough to win seats in Congress," said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), who in 2017 emerged as one of the Democratic Party's most powerful critics of corporate power. "In 2018, Democrats need a bold economic vision which includes investing in education, healthcare, and opportunities for every American." ....

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/01/01/anti-trump-rhetoric-not-enough-bold-progressive-agenda-demanded-2018

:)

This is a CA Dem:  when one of them says 'every American' they mean illegal immigrants.  

 

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1 hour ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

This is a CA Dem:  when one of them says 'every American' they mean illegal immigrants.  

 

still having nightmares re: immigrant invasions??

"... again in 2016, horror films chose to forgo allegory and metaphor in favor of the direct route: pointing out that racist extremism, power-mad gun rights advocacy, religious zealotry, conspiracy-driven survivalism, and xenophobic nationalism are all scary as hell. ...

https://www.vox.com/culture/2016/12/21/13737476/horror-movies-2016-invasion

& http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/03/us/california-immigrant-transfers/index.html

-_-

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Of course it's always good to have a well thought out platform,

but anti-Trump emotion could still go far.

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9 hours ago, Vautrin said:

Of course it's always good to have a well thought out platform,

but anti-Trump emotion could still go far.

After all, the anti-Obama, anti-government emotions put Trump in office with no realistic platform at all.

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20 hours ago, mr6666 said:

still having nightmares re: immigrant invasions??

"... again in 2016, horror films chose to forgo allegory and metaphor in favor of the direct route: pointing out that racist extremism, power-mad gun rights advocacy, religious zealotry, conspiracy-driven survivalism, and xenophobic nationalism are all scary as hell. ...

https://www.vox.com/culture/2016/12/21/13737476/horror-movies-2016-invasion

& http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/03/us/california-immigrant-transfers/index.html

-_-

No nightmares just realities of CA politics;  E.g.  they are trying to pass a bill that will allow illegal immigrants to use the CA ACA exchange.   This will cost CA citizens billions since a very high percentage of the illegal immigrants require subsidies.  

I'm for granting work visas to 'dreamers' but the CA Dems are for open borders and amnesty for all,  even criminals and illegal immigrants that arrived yesterday.    

These are facts and one the Dems here can't justified (E.g. if you're for open borders and full on amnesty just be honest and say so and defend why that is a good public policy).

Instead all most do is imply one must be a racist (and I"m not even white,  and isn't it true only whites can be racist,  ha ha!).

 

 

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9 hours ago, TheCid said:

After all, the anti-Obama, anti-government emotions put Trump in office with no realistic platform at all.

Being strongly anti someone can bring people out. Related to the other guy

vote. I don't like this guy, so I'm voting for the other guy, even if the other

guy isn't especially good.

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SOUTH PARK once put it this way:

"It's a choice between a t u r d sandwich and a d o u c h e bag."

Sepiatone

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On 1/3/2018 at 12:49 PM, hamradio said:

Orrin Hatch, Utah Senator, to Retire, Opening Path for Mitt Romney

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/02/us/politics/orrin-hatch-retiring-romney-trump.html

 

Will be interesting if the former MA gov can be elected from UT at this stage of his career.  But others have pulled off similar things.

Trump's decision to open up most of the US coasts to oil drilling may work against some GOPers running for governor or other offices in coastal states.

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3 judge Federal panel rules that NC gerrymandered its election districts.  They are overly partisan and must be redone.  Of course, the GOPers will appeal and case will end up before SCOTUS.

Per Washington Post.

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2018 looks like it's going to be a wild election year in NC. I wonder if

Asheville will go back into the 11th CD. Not a racial gerrymander, but

one made to cut out Democratic voters. There is also a court case

concerning gerrymandering of the NC legislature. The judges had a

Stanford professor draw new maps for a number of districts and the

GOP is appealing that too. And time is quickly running out.

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This is probably an overly optimistic "prediction" for 2018, but indicates 38 House seats may shift to Dems and Senate is a toss-up.  With 25 Dem seats up in Senate vs. only 8 GOP seats, I doubt a change there.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/01/10/early-election-forecast-republicans-could-lose-38-seats-and-house-majority/?undefined=&utm_term=.70b9c0f7d44d&wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1

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6 hours ago, TheCid said:

This is probably an overly optimistic "prediction" for 2018, but indicates 38 House seats may shift to Dems and Senate is a toss-up.  With 25 Dem seats up in Senate vs. only 8 GOP seats, I doubt a change there.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/01/10/early-election-forecast-republicans-could-lose-38-seats-and-house-majority/?undefined=&utm_term=.70b9c0f7d44d&wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1

If Dems can hold on existing House seats and gain GOP ones in districts where Clinton beat Trump (5 total in CA,   and I live in one of these and the contest is getting a lot of local coverage),   the Dems could gain enough for a majority.

 

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2 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

If Dems can hold on existing House seats and gain GOP ones in districts were Clinton beat Trump (5 total in CA,   and I live in one of these and the contest is getting a lot of local coverage),   the Dems could gain enough for a majority.

 

Read where Darrell Issa of CA is not running for reelection.  Barely won in 2016 in a district that went for Clinton.

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2 hours ago, TheCid said:

Read where Darrell Issa of CA is not running for reelection.  Barely won in 2016 in a district that went for Clinton.

Yes,  Issa won by < 1% with Clinton getting around 6% more than Trump,  so that seat is the most likely to turn Dem.      The district I'm in the GOP candidate (Walters) won by over 6% and Clinton by < 1% so that one is likely to stay in the GOP (but she did vote for the Tax Bill and we are in a high 'rent' area where most people have more than 10K in SALT deductions).    Note that Issa voted against the Tax Bill because of that cap. 

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On 1/2/2018 at 9:06 AM, TheCid said:

After all, the anti-Obama, anti-government emotions put Trump in office with no realistic platform at all.

 

YEP!!!

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Caution:  We are still only discussing special elections.  However, the Dems picked up a state senate seat in WI that had been firmly GOP since 2000.  This was the 34th seat the Dems have taken from GOP in 2017-2018 cycle.  GOP has flipped four seats from Dems.

In other races, the Dems have also come close or at least gained significantly in strong GOP areas.  Even in races in the Deep South where Dems haven't even run candidates in many years.  

This is hopeful if the Dems do not become overconfident and do not offend too many of the people who actually vote in Nov. 2018.

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Article from WP on some of the contenders for Dem nomination.  Apparently in a poll, Biden comes in ahead of Winfrey.  Sanders and Gillibrand don't fare so well either.  Of course, as we learned in 2016, polls aren't that reliable, especially this far out.

However, I think it does show that the majority of people who will vote in Nov. 2020 would prefer a moderate to left of center Dem and not a celebrity or liberal.  Especially not the extreme liberals.

/www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/01/18/the-democrat-trump-should-fear-the-most-in-2020-and-its-not-oprah/?undefined=&utm_term=.2587a49b5c82&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

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7 hours ago, TheCid said:

Article from WP on some of the contenders for Dem nomination.  Apparently in a poll, Biden comes in ahead of Winfrey.  Sanders and Gillibrand don't fare so well either.  Of course, as we learned in 2016, polls aren't that reliable, especially this far out.

However, I think it does show that the majority of people who will vote in Nov. 2020 would prefer a moderate to left of center Dem and not a celebrity or liberal.  Especially not the extreme liberals.

/www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/01/18/the-democrat-trump-should-fear-the-most-in-2020-and-its-not-oprah/?undefined=&utm_term=.2587a49b5c82&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

that doesn't sound like oprah.:D

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Supreme Court decides that NC does not have to redraw its districts before the Nov election.  These were the ones that a lower court determined were egregiously partisan in favor of Republicans and unconstitutional.  This means the gerrymandered districts will be used in Nov practically insuring the GOP continues to dominate the NC legislature and its Congressional delegation.

This is not unusual as the SC often decides not to change anything until they make a final ruling.

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