TheCid

2018 Elections

266 posts in this topic

NPR PoliticsVerified account @nprpolitics 2h2 hours ago

 
 

Tuesday night was a breakthrough for progressives, with the fall of a top Democratic establishment figure and a victory for Bernie Sanders.

(& other results....)

Trump endorsements boost incumbents .....

Republican divides on display ....

Romney's next step toward the Senate ....

https://www.npr.org/2018/06/26/623565247/primaries-to-watch-will-trump-endorsements-be-enough-to-protect-gop-incumbents

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James Hohman in his Washington Post article re: Ocasio-Cortez primary victory: (More than half the district’s residents, 54 percent, are Latino. Another 26 percent are black and 5 percent are Asian. Trump received less than 20 percent of the vote there in 2016.)

As for military, John Warren, the Republican gubernatorial candidate in S.C. who largely campaigned on his record in the Marines lost to the Trump backed incumbent in the run off.  After leaving the Marines, he founded a mortgage company that made him a multi-millionaire in a fairly short time.  He was endorsed by the other three candidates who lost in the first primary, as well as much of the "business" community.

Ironically, the winner, Henry McMaster, will face a Democrat who is a major in the National Guard and an Army Infantry combat veteran of Iraq or Afghanistan.

Actually all of these results may or may not portend anything at this point.  The real test comes in November in ALL the elections.

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9 hours ago, mr6666 said:

AP PoliticsVerified account @AP_Politics 3h3 hours ago

 
 

BREAKING: Former NAACP President Ben Jealous wins the Maryland Democratic nomination for governor, giving him a shot at becoming the state’s first black governor

and setting up a battle between the progressive candidate and a popular Republican incumbent. http://apne.ws/tefd3H0

I'll love to see those campaign ads. :lol:

214452-I-Am-Jealous-Of-The-People-That-G

:P

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9 hours ago, mr6666 said:

jeremy scahillVerified account @jeremyscahill 4h4 hours ago

 
 

A Democratic Socialist, @Ocasio2018,

took down one of the most powerful institutional Democrats in Congress. She ran an uncompromising campaign based on militant principles,

including abolishing ICE.

Abolishing ICE;  Yea,  that Dem isn't for open-borders.   Yea,  that is just GOP propaganda!   

You guys are a hoot. 

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Justice Kennedy's retirement will cause the "dark money" interests and other GOP supporters to launch huge efforts at the state and federal levels to elect more Republicans.  They will initially focus on the Democratic incumbent US Senate races and defending the very few GOP Senate seats with the goal of having 55-60 GOP senators in 2019.  They might make it.

The focus on the state level will be electing legislators and governors who will essentially repeal voting, civil, LGBT, housing worker and women's rights laws.  The Catholics, Evangelicals and others will go heavily on get out the vote for legislators to make abortions totally illegal. Then birth control and other issues.

Then they will focus on electing legislators who will void legal, environmental, financial, consumer, pharmaceutical, etc. protections.  They will want legislators supportive of public funding of private education, but with no regulations and less funding of public education.  They will do the same at the Federal level as well, but many of these begin at the state level.

With a conservative justice replacing Kennedy and the new laws above, these people will then fund massive  number of court cases with the intention that they will get to US Supreme Court and all of the goals in paragraph two and three will be accomplished.

Most importantly, Trump will effect his legacy of establishing a very conservative Supreme Court that will endure for 20-30 years.  It will reverse almost all of the "social and civil" cases of the past 50 years.  I can foresee Justice Ginsberg (85) giving up and retiring next year.  Speculation is that Trump may get to appoint four justices.  

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Daniel Balz in the Washington Post discusses upcoming elections.  He discusses Trump's already energetic "campaigning" via his appearances.  Also, the importance of college educated women, minorities and the young actually showing up to vote in November.  As well as the work to do before that if the Dems really want a blue wave instead of a blue ripple washed over by a red wave.

"The landscape tilts against the president’s party this year, typical of midterm elections. But Democrats underestimated what they were seeing at Trump rallies in 2016 and how that would translate on Election Day. They will need to match the president in their capacity to energize their potential voters. That’s the battle that will rage between now and November."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-midterm-elections-shape-up-as-a-battle-over-intensity-are-democrats-ready/2018/06/30/701da98c-7bd1-11e8-aeee-4d04c8ac6158_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.e996d9da523f&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

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US Senate races have gotten more interesting because of the Trump Tariffs and the huge prospective damage to US economy.  If Trump continues to screw up with Europe, NATO, Korea, Tariffs, etc., Dems may have a chance. 

 https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/how-the-trade-war-is-changing-minds-in-a-senate-battleground/2018/07/07/2a19d092-81f7-11e8-b3b5-b61896f90919_story.html?utm_term=.e98f44218fa0

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On 6/27/2018 at 2:30 AM, mr6666 said:

AP PoliticsVerified account @AP_Politics 3h3 hours ago

 
 

BREAKING: Former NAACP President Ben Jealous wins the Maryland Democratic nomination for governor, giving him a shot at becoming the state’s first black governor

and setting up a battle between the progressive candidate and a popular Republican incumbent. http://apne.ws/tefd3H0

I live in Virginia, so we hear much about Maryland. Hogan will probably be re-elected, and he is actually pretty moderate and willing to work with the Democratic controlled legislature there. Plus he is not associated with Trump at all. Thus he pretty much stands or falls on his own merits. I can't say I'd be disappointed if Hogan won reelection.

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On 6/27/2018 at 2:11 AM, mr6666 said:

VoteVetsVerified account @votevets 4h4 hours ago

 

Congratulations to VoteVets-endorsed @JasonCrowCO6 on your huge win in #CO06!

Jason is an U.S. Army Ranger veteran who has the guts to take on the gun lobby and be a strong, effective champion for Colorado families. #COpol

Yes,  GOP heads pretty much explode at the idea of a Democratic progressive veteran. It's like they think they own the copyright on veteran and war hero candidates.  They certainly don't know what  to do about Tammy Duckworth.

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4 minutes ago, calvinnme said:

Yes,  GOP heads pretty much explode at the idea of a Democratic progressive veteran. It's like they think they own the copyright on veteran and war hero candidates.  They certainly don't know what  to do about Tammy Duckworth.

Coffman, GOP incumbent, has held seat for several years and is a Marine combat veteran.  So, it will be an interesting race.

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1 hour ago, TheCid said:

Coffman, GOP incumbent, has held seat for several years and is a Marine combat veteran.  So, it will be an interesting race.

I would be interested in seeing actual data for past Congressional elections (say from 2006 forward),  to see if either party does better in the general election when running stereotypical 'for the other party' candidates;  e.g. GOP with a black women,  or Dem with a combat veteran.  

As it relates to this specific district in Colorado;  Will Dem voter turnout be high enough for Crow to win?    E.g. will the #MeToo movement,  as well as other liberal activist groups,  provide 'full' support to a white male?  

(we know that the GOP voters in that district will do so). 

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1 hour ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

I would be interested in seeing actual data for past Congressional elections (say from 2006 forward),  to see if either party does better in the general election when running stereotypical 'for the other party' candidates;  e.g. GOP with a black women,  or Dem with a combat veteran.  

As it relates to this specific district in Colorado;  Will Dem voter turnout be high enough for Crow to win?    E.g. will the #MeToo movement,  as well as other liberal activist groups,  provide 'full' support to a white male?  

(we know that the GOP voters in that district will do so). 

Clinton carried the district so that makes it more difficult to predict.

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If the Dems didn't have so many more Senate seats to defend than the GOP they

might have had a chance of taking over the Senate. As it is, I think they'll be lucky if

they have 44 or so seats after the election. 

 

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1 hour ago, Vautrin said:

If the Dems didn't have so many more Senate seats to defend than the GOP they

might have had a chance of taking over the Senate. As it is, I think they'll be lucky if

they have 44 or so seats after the election. 

 

Wow,  not very optimistic.    At this stage I would say the Dems lose 2 seats and end up with 47.

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3 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Wow,  not very optimistic.    At this stage I would say the Dems lose 2 seats and end up with 47.

I still think they will be lucky to be left with 44 or 45 seats. Under the

circumstances, that will not be a bad showing. We'll know for sure in November. 

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Any guesses on which Dems and which GOPers might lose their Senate seats?  Any guesses on which (if any) open seats will change from Dem to GOP or vice versa?

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Democratic senator Bill Nelson of Florida is currently polling behind Republican challenger Rick Scott.

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14 hours ago, Vautrin said:

I still think they will be lucky to be left with 44 or 45 seats. Under the

circumstances, that will not be a bad showing. We'll know for sure in November. 

You could be right since there is a strong anti-incumbent (throw the bums out),  vibe and of course the Dems are running more incumbents.  

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3 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

You could be right since there is a strong anti-incumbent (throw the bums out),  vibe and of course the Dems are running more incumbents.  

Yes, the Dems having so many more seats to defend than the GOP is the special circumstance

that will give them trouble. So as I said, if they wind up with 45 seats it won't be a very bad

outcome. Maybe this also shows that McConnell is not really worried about GOP Senators

voting against Donny's SC nominee, i.e. he will likely have a much more comfortable margin

after the election than he has now, but he knows that Collins is just doing a fake out.

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6 hours ago, TheCid said:

Any guesses on which Dems and which GOPers might lose their Senate seats?  Any guesses on which (if any) open seats will change from Dem to GOP or vice versa?

I haven't been paying a lot of attention to the details, but Heller of Nevada is seen as the

GOP Senator in the biggest trouble. I think most folks thought Joe Manchin was on his

way out, but I believe his chances have improved lately. 

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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/06/opinion/democratic-socialism-alexandria-ocasio-cortez.html

Democratic Socialism Is Dem Doom

A political novice who calls herself a “democratic socialist” wins an unexpected Democratic Party primary victory, and now political taxonomists are racing to explain just what the term means. Here’s my definition: political hemlock for the Democratic Party.

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