TheCid

2018 Elections

365 posts in this topic

I don't live in Kentucky so it's not my concern, but if I did live there, I'd vote for McGrath over Barr in an instant. She has no substantive record, so she's an unknown quantity, which means she might vote with policies I agree with, whereas I know Barr will not, and will in fact vote for things I do not agree with. 

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ProPublicaVerified account @ProPublica 1h1 hour ago

 
 

1/ Kris Kobach's GOP primary race in Kansas is too close to call. His current office is now responsible for a recount and there's no law stopping him from overseeing it. (via @KCStar)

------------------------------------------------------

Kris Kobach won’t recuse himself from a recount

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article216299955.html

 

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Kobach is the Secretary of State--

What's more, as Secretary of State, Kobach has appointed all of the Election Commissioners in the largest counties in Kansas.

Of course, that includes Johnson County, which is a suburb of Kansas City.

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, mr6666 said:

ProPublicaVerified account @ProPublica 1h1 hour ago

 
 

1/ Kris Kobach's GOP primary race in Kansas is too close to call. His current office is now responsible for a recount and there's no law stopping him from overseeing it. (via @KCStar)

------------------------------------------------------

Kris Kobach won’t recuse himself from a recount

https://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/election/article216299955.html

 

 

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15 minutes ago, jakeem said:

There have been some major problems with the count in Johnson County. They were finally able to give an unofficial count at 8am this morning with Kobach ahead by approximately 200 votes.

 Reportedly they still have provisional and mail-in ballots to count.

Governor Colyer is not conceding and is awaiting the recount.

 

Source: KSHB- TV, Kansas City

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7 minutes ago, Princess of Tap said:

There have been some major problems with the count in Johnson County. They were finally able to give an unofficial count at 8am this morning with Kobach ahead by approximately 200 votes.

 Reportedly they still have provisional and mail-in ballots to count.

Governor Colyer is not conceding and is awaiting the recount.

 

Source: KSHB- TV, Kansas City

I wonder if Colyer,  as Governor,  could force Kobach to recuse himself but that would raise a conflict of interest concern from the Kobach camp.     I say get a ref from the NFL and flip a coin.

 

 

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9 hours ago, TheCid said:

Per her website, it is just about all about her military service.  She went into the military at age 18 (Naval Academy) and stayed until she recently retired from the Marine Corps.

The Guard and Reserves were safe havens for many with connections during the Vietnam War.  In fact, those who wished to avoid active duty in peace time joined the Guard and Reserves.  I can remember people bragging about using family connections to get to the top of the lists. 

She does have a photo of herself with her husband and children, maybe to reassure voters

that just because she has a short haircut and somewhat mannish features that she's not a

lesbian. Having a military background might be a slight advantage in Kentucky, but maybe not

enough for a victory. I really don't know anything about the district she is running in. That is

obviously an important factor. Pols can have policy positions even if they've never had any

governing experience. 

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I caught a segment on one of the "news" channels with the usual panel arguing over results.  Bill Kristol stated that when November gets here what the GOP will do is hold up a picture of Nancy Pelosi and pair it with the Dem candidate.  Game over and the GOPers win again.  The independents and Trump disliking Republicans will vote against Pelosi.  But if Pelosi said she would not accept the speakership, then it is a new ball game.

Exactly what I have been saying for months.

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GOP Rep. Chis Collins of Western New York (Buffalo) is planning on standing for re-election.  Meanwhile if convicted of insider trading and lying to the FBI he faces 150 years in prison.:lol:

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I doubt that Nancy Pelosi is in the habit of taking advice from Little Billy Kristol.

Can't say I blame her.

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9 hours ago, Vautrin said:

I doubt that Nancy Pelosi is in the habit of taking advice from Little Billy Kristol.

Can't say I blame her.

True enough.  She is much like Trump in that respect.  Do what she wants even if it hurts the Dem Party and the country.

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7 hours ago, TheCid said:

True enough.  She is much like Trump in that respect.  Do what she wants even if it hurts the Dem Party and the country.

Pelosi could work 24/7 and never come close to Donny in the number of lies and stupid things

said. She does what she thinks will help the Democratic party, though one can't expect her to

give up all her political beliefs. Whatever her own views, she has tried to tamp down any talk of

impeaching Trump because she thinks it would be a losing strategy. 

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7 hours ago, TheCid said:

True enough.  She is much like Trump in that respect.  Do what she wants even if it hurts the Dem Party and the country.

I see that the hyper partisans aren't able to follow you when it comes to Pelosi.    You could even show them data related to her negative impact on Dem candidates in purple and red states, especially since 2010, and it wouldn't matter.

You're calling-out someone other than Trump and that is a no-no in these parts. 

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CNN has an article on the Dem strategy of pushing military candidates,  especially females ones:

"We worked tirelessly to recruit a historic number of candidates with records of service, including female veterans," says Molly Mitchell, the Director of Media Affairs for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of Democrats in the House of Representatives. "These candidates have powerful personal stories and strong independent profiles that excite the grassroots base and prevent Republicans from successfully putting our candidates into ideological boxes. The DCCC knew that voters would flock to the stabilizing influences of veteran candidates."

 

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15 hours ago, Vautrin said:

The popularity ratings of the POTUS is a more important factor in midterm

elections than the popularity of the Speaker or the possible future Speaker.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/14/politics/nancy-pelosi-unpopularity-importance-in-midterm/index.html

  • Below are the most relevant takeaways from the above article.  If you read it carefully, you will see that the unpopularity of the president does matter, but the unpopularity of a Speaker or Minority Leader is also important.
  • Furthermore, while John Boehner was not popular, Nancy Pelosi is despised by many.  Boehner was sort of a wash.  Unpopular, but largely irrelevant in elections.   Also, the GOPers took the House and Senate for many reasons, but number one was OBAMACARE which is the signature legislative achievement of PELOSI.  
  • More moderate GOPers and independent voters are fearful of a Pelosi House than of a GOP controlled House.  The GOP will use that to drive their people to the vote.  
  • "2010: Boehner was not a popular man. His net favorability rating in CNNand ABC News/Washington Post polls over the final week of the election averaged -7 percentage points. That made him about as popular as Democratic President Barack Obama. Did it matter that Boehner wasn't super popular? No. Republicans won 63 seats and control of the House. Now, perhaps Republicans were helped additionally by the unpopularity of then-Speaker Pelosi, whose net favorability rating was south of -20 percentage points, which was a significant decline from her positive ratings before the 2006 midterm, when Democrats took control of the House. But again, the common theme is that the president's popularity is driving the results.
  • 2014: Like Gingrich before him, Boehner was more unpopular after a few years as speaker. An October 2014 survey conducted by GfK Public Affairs & Corporate Communications put Boehner's net favorability at -24 percentage points. That was about equal to Pelosi's rating of -25 percentage points. It was far below the quite unpopular Obama's net approval rating of -16 percentage points in the same survey. In the end, it was Obama's net approval rating that mattered most. Democrats lost over a dozen seats."

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13 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

CNN has an article on the Dem strategy of pushing military candidates,  especially females ones:

"We worked tirelessly to recruit a historic number of candidates with records of service, including female veterans," says Molly Mitchell, the Director of Media Affairs for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign arm of Democrats in the House of Representatives. "These candidates have powerful personal stories and strong independent profiles that excite the grassroots base and prevent Republicans from successfully putting our candidates into ideological boxes. The DCCC knew that voters would flock to the stabilizing influences of veteran candidates."

 

While this is commendable, it still needs to come down to who is best qualified to serve in elected office.  I know many veterans and military retirees who vote against veterans if that is their primary qualification.

There are also a lot of veterans who lose elections every year, so the public wants more than just a past of wearing a uniform.

People need to realize that the military is not at all like any other job in America.  It is about service and sacrifice, but it is a very closed society that is much like a dictatorship.  It has to be to function and succeed.

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Lead paragraph says it all.

While Democrats grow optimistic about their chances of taking control of the House in November, they are increasingly anxious that the presence of their longtime and polarizing leader, Nancy Pelosi, is making it harder for many of their candidates to compete in crucial swing districts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/pelosi-is-the-star-of-gop-attack-ads-worrying-democrats-upbeat-about-midterms/2018/08/09/f85a2474-9b43-11e8-

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8 hours ago, TheCid said:
  • Below are the most relevant takeaways from the above article.  If you read it carefully, you will see that the unpopularity of the president does matter, but the unpopularity of a Speaker or Minority Leader is also important.
  • Furthermore, while John Boehner was not popular, Nancy Pelosi is despised by many.  Boehner was sort of a wash.  Unpopular, but largely irrelevant in elections.   Also, the GOPers took the House and Senate for many reasons, but number one was OBAMACARE which is the signature legislative achievement of PELOSI.  
  • More moderate GOPers and independent voters are fearful of a Pelosi House than of a GOP controlled House.  The GOP will use that to drive their people to the vote.  
  • "2010: Boehner was not a popular man. His net favorability rating in CNNand ABC News/Washington Post polls over the final week of the election averaged -7 percentage points. That made him about as popular as Democratic President Barack Obama. Did it matter that Boehner wasn't super popular? No. Republicans won 63 seats and control of the House. Now, perhaps Republicans were helped additionally by the unpopularity of then-Speaker Pelosi, whose net favorability rating was south of -20 percentage points, which was a significant decline from her positive ratings before the 2006 midterm, when Democrats took control of the House. But again, the common theme is that the president's popularity is driving the results.
  • 2014: Like Gingrich before him, Boehner was more unpopular after a few years as speaker. An October 2014 survey conducted by GfK Public Affairs & Corporate Communications put Boehner's net favorability at -24 percentage points. That was about equal to Pelosi's rating of -25 percentage points. It was far below the quite unpopular Obama's net approval rating of -16 percentage points in the same survey. In the end, it was Obama's net approval rating that mattered most. Democrats lost over a dozen seats."

My reading of it was that the popularity of the president is more of a factor than

the popularity of the Speaker or possible Speaker. We'll know in a few months.

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Rogue WH Snr Advisor @RogueSNRadvisor 6h6 hours ago

 
 

BEN SHAPIRO: Facts don’t care about your feelings!

ALSO BEN SHAPIRO: My feelings are incredibly hurt by the fact that you won’t debate me!

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shuts down Ben Shapiro’s challenge to debate-

Conservative and notorious racist Ben Shapiro is apparently, like many right-wing commentators, obsessed with New York Democratic congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and so he decided this week to offer a $10,000 donation to her campaign in exchange for having a debate.

On Thursday night, Ocasio-Cortez shut down the gimmicky cry for attention with a simple — yet powerful — tweet.

"Just like catcalling, I don’t owe a response to unsolicited requests from men with bad intentions," she said of the demands that she debate Shapiro. "And also like catcalling, for some reason they feel entitled to one.".....

https://www.salon.com/2018/08/10/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-shuts-down-ben-shapiro-and-his-calls-for-a-debate_partner/

:unsure:

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19 minutes ago, mr6666 said:

Rogue WH Snr Advisor @RogueSNRadvisor 6h6 hours ago

 
 

BEN SHAPIRO: Facts don’t care about your feelings!

ALSO BEN SHAPIRO: My feelings are incredibly hurt by the fact that you won’t debate me!

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez shuts down Ben Shapiro’s challenge to debate-

Conservative and notorious racist Ben Shapiro is apparently, like many right-wing commentators, obsessed with New York Democratic congressional candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and so he decided this week to offer a $10,000 donation to her campaign in exchange for having a debate.

On Thursday night, Ocasio-Cortez shut down the gimmicky cry for attention with a simple — yet powerful — tweet.

"Just like catcalling, I don’t owe a response to unsolicited requests from men with bad intentions," she said of the demands that she debate Shapiro. "And also like catcalling, for some reason they feel entitled to one.".....

https://www.salon.com/2018/08/10/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-shuts-down-ben-shapiro-and-his-calls-for-a-debate_partner/

:unsure:

Why did she say 'men with bad intentions' instead of just 'people with bad intentions' as well as 'catcalling'.

Shapiro is a total a-hole but Osasio-Cortez's reply was very immature.   

This article is bias;  E.g. Since she won her district primary race in a stunning upset, Ocasio-Cortez has drawn extensive criticism from the right — completely out of proportion to the attention paid to the hundreds of other congressional candidates across the country.

Uh,   the MSM is pushing her as the new face of the Dem party.   Bernie did some events with her and she came to CA for a Fund raiser.  (things that had NOTHING to do with her district race).    I.e. her coverage was completely out of proportion to the attention paid to every other first time Dem candidate running for office.    NOW,  a lot of that coverage was warranted since she defeated an incumbent Dem that had won that seat 10 times in a row,  (also because she is a self claimed socialist dem), but since the MSM made her a media darling,  of course the right is going to single her out for criticism. 

The silly article clearly is trying to imply any criticism is because of her background and gender. 

Her Dem opponent was an idiot to not debate her but maybe he (a white man) worried that anything he challenged her on (like being a socialist dem),  would be spun as a racist and sexist attack on a women of color.   

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17 hours ago, Vautrin said:

My reading of it was that the popularity of the president is more of a factor than

the popularity of the Speaker or possible Speaker. We'll know in a few months.

Agree that the popularity of the president is a greater factor, BUT how much better would the Dems do in Nov. if they did remove Pelosi as an issue (if that is possible)?  They need to turnover 23 seats while keeping all they have just to get a majority.  And that is not assured.  A bigger majority would be much better.

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8 hours ago, TheCid said:

Agree that the popularity of the president is a greater factor, BUT how much better would the Dems do in Nov. if they did remove Pelosi as an issue (if that is possible)?  They need to turnover 23 seats while keeping all they have just to get a majority.  And that is not assured.  A bigger majority would be much better.

We'll never know, since the election can't be run twice, once with Pelosi and once without

her. I think they have a good shot at taking the House, not a good shot at taking the

Senate. To be an actual blue wave I think the Dems would have to take both. Anything

less is not a wave, at least as I would define it.

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Interesting article re: Democratic Socialism (Ocassio-Cortez's beliefs) and its implications for the Democratic Party.  Very lengthy, but gives some information that I believe will successfully be used against Democrats running in areas other than Northeast and West Coast.  One aspect is that the Democratic Socialist have lofty goals, but no method for implementing them, much less paying for them.  Also, they are essentially opposed to capitalism.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/democratic-socialists-are-conquering-the-left-but-do-they-believe-in-democracy/2018/08/10/5bf58392-9b90-11e8-b60b-1c897f17e185_story.html?wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1&noredirect=on

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