TheCid

2018 Elections

623 posts in this topic

This should prove interesting.  Dianne Feinstein has lost the endorsement of the CA Dem. Party in her run for re-election.  They endorsed CA Senate Leader Kevin de Leon.  She will be 85, so that may have factored into it.  Major problem apparently is that she is not liberal enough for CA Dem Part.

CA's top two finishers primary system could result in Feinstein and de Leon being only two on the ballot anyway.

James probably will comment, but I wonder if the top two finishers in primaries may not be a better system.  Maybe combine with open primaries?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/02/25/feinstein-loses-california-democratic-partys-endorsement/?undefined=&utm_term=.9474f4d5f629&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

However, James Hohman's article (WP) on same race posits that the extremists are exerting powerful influences on the races in Illinois.

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51 minutes ago, TheCid said:

This should prove interesting.  Dianne Feinstein has lost the endorsement of the CA Dem. Party in her run for re-election.  They endorsed CA Senate Leader Kevin de Leon.  She will be 85, so that may have factored into it.  Major problem apparently is that she is not liberal enough for CA Dem Part.

CA's top two finishers primary system could result in Feinstein and de Leon being only two on the ballot anyway.

James probably will comment, but I wonder if the top two finishers in primaries may not be a better system.  Maybe combine with open primaries?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2018/02/25/feinstein-loses-california-democratic-partys-endorsement/?undefined=&utm_term=.9474f4d5f629&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

De Leon is for full amnesty and open borders, and his track record of tax and spend is well known.   To me he is an extremist.    Feinstein has a track record as a moderate.  Both candidates have a fairly strong 'base'  (but De Leon is at the district level while Feinstein is the most well known and liked politician, statewide.   In 2016 two Dems 'won' the primary with Dem darling Harris winning in the General.    But in that contest the two candidates were both liberals (Obama supporting Harris was key).     Hard to predict how independents would vote in 2018 primary but a large portion would have to vote for the GOP candidate to ensure only one Dem is in the General.

Note that for the open House seat held today by Darrell Issa (GOP),  who is retiring,   the Dems are currently running 5 candidates each with about the same level of support and cash,  while the GOP is running 2.     Therefore there is a real possibility that NO Dem will be one of the top 2 in the primary.      The CA Dem party establishment is concerned but so far no one is willing to drop out (each candidate saying the others should drop out).

     

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17 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Note that for the open House seat held today by Darrell Issa (GOP),  who is retiring,   the Dems are currently running 5 candidates each with about the same level of support and cash,  while the GOP is running 2.     Therefore there is a real possibility that NO Dem will be one of the top 2 in the primary.      The CA Dem party establishment is concerned but so far no one is willing to drop out (each candidate saying the others should drop out).

     

Shades of the 2016 Republican Presidential Primary.  Sort of.

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39 minutes ago, TheCid said:

Shades of the 2016 Republican Presidential Primary.  Sort of.

This weekend the State Dem party endorsed one candidate in two of the 5 'at play' GOP held Congressional districts.    This sends a message to the other Dems candidates in those districts;  please get out of the race!   The State party will next provide funds for the primary IF those other Dems don't drop out.

As for Feinstein and De Leon;  That was the front page story in my local paper;  While De Leon did get the state party endorsement,   statewide polling has Feinstein with 46% an De Leon with only 17% (which would mean he would NOT even make it to the General).  

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22 minutes ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

This weekend the State Dem party endorsed one candidate in two of the 5 'at play' GOP held Congressional districts.    This sends a message to the other Dems candidates in those districts;  please get out of the race!   The State party will next provide funds for the primary IF those other Dems don't drop out.

As for Feinstein and De Leon;  That was the front page story in my local paper;  While De Leon did get the state party endorsement,   statewide polling has Feinstein with 46% an De Leon with only 17% (which would mean he would NOT even make it to the General).  

Who are the leading Republicans?

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2 hours ago, TheCid said:

Who are the leading Republicans?

In my district it is Mimi Walters who has held this position since 2015.   I view her as a moderate.

The other is Dana Rohrabacher.   Now he is a Trump supporter,  was one of the candidates for Secretary of State and is very pro-Russia.     Therefore the odds are much higher he will lose his seat as long as the Dem that wins the primary isn't too far left. 

 

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NBC NewsVerified account @NBCNews 2h2 hours ago

 
 

US intel community developed substantial evidence that state websites or voter registration systems in 7 states were compromised by Russian-backed covert operatives prior to 2016 election

— but never told states involved, multiple US officials say.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/u-s-intel-russia-compromised-seven-states-prior-2016-election-n850296?cid=sm_npd_nn_tw_ma

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8 minutes ago, mr6666 said:

NBC NewsVerified account @NBCNews 2h2 hours ago

 
 

US intel community developed substantial evidence that state websites or voter registration systems in 7 states were compromised by Russian-backed covert operatives prior to 2016 election

— but never told states involved, multiple US officials say.

 

So this is a stain on the legacy of Obama?  

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"....The officials say systems in the seven states were compromised in a variety of ways, with some breaches more serious than others, from entry into state websites to penetration of actual voter registration databases.

While officials in Washington informed several of those states in the run-up to the election that foreign entities were probing their systems, none were told the Russian government was behind it, state officials told NBC News.

All state and federal officials who spoke to NBC News agree that no votes were changed and no voters were taken off the rolls.....

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/u-s-intel-russia-compromised-seven-states-prior-2016-election-n850296

:unsure:

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Got my National Republican Congressional Comittee survey (send money) today.  Boldly on top of insert, it says Stop Pelosi from Defeating House Republicans in 2018.  Also has a bold statement that Pelosi is targeting every House Republican.  On the return envelope, it has DEFEAT PELOSI in 2018 in large bold box where return address should go.

One of the "questions" is about if Dems take Congress, my gun rights will be greatly taken away.

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The Texas primaries start today and they have an interesting 'method'.   To win the parties 'seat' for the General one has to get 50% of the votes in the primary.  If no one gets to 50% 6 weeks later there is a run-off with the top two.  

First thing I wondered was how often there was a need for a run-off since to me this is an extra election that isn't cost effective when there are 'too  many'.      

But unlike here in CA it does ensure one candidate per party in the General.   

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Latest on PA 18 race.  Dem ahead by 627 votes. 49.8% to 49.6%.  Some provisional, military and absentee ballots yet to be counted, but apparently not very many.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

Trump is already trying to distance himself from the race.  Yet another friend/ally deserted.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/politics/white-house-pa-18-reaction/index.html

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4 hours ago, TheCid said:

Latest on PA 18 race.  Dem ahead by 627 votes. 49.8% to 49.6%.  Some provisional, military and absentee ballots yet to be counted, but apparently not very many.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/13/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-house-special-election.html

Trump is already trying to distance himself from the race.  Yet another friend/ally deserted.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/14/politics/white-house-pa-18-reaction/index.html

If the Dems hold on and win this election that is impressive given Trump winning the district by 20%.    Yea,  I know that one shouldn't read too much into these special elections as it relates to the 2018 mid-term election but what impressed me is that the DNC and nationally known Dem politicians didn't mess up this contest by being heavy handed in how the Lamb should conduct his campaign.    E.g. saying that he wasn't anti-Trump or progressive enough.      If the DNC, as well as local Dems, can stick to a strategy tailored to each district (or state for Senate seats),    they increase their changes of gaining a majority.

 

  

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13 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

If the Dems hold on and win this election that is impressive given Trump winning the district by 20%.    Yea,  I know that one shouldn't read too much into these special elections as it relates to the 2018 mid-term election but what impressed me is that the DNC and nationally known Dem politicians didn't mess up this contest by being heavy handed in how the Lamb should conduct his campaign.    E.g. saying that he wasn't anti-Trump or progressive enough.      If the DNC, as well as local Dems, can stick to a strategy tailored to each district (or state for Senate seats),    they increase their changes of gaining a majority.

 

  

I think the DNC contributed money and support, but the politicians stayed out of it.  The other interesting thing is that the Dems have not run an opponent in the last two elections because it was so gerrymandered that a Dem could not win or even have a good showing.

Lamb appears to be a conservative/moderate Dem.  His home is actually in another district with a current GOP rep and that is where he will run in Nov. 2018, assuming he runs.  Current district is being eliminated.

Some of the important lessons are that no matter how hard they try, the GOPers cannot always link Dem candidates to Pelosi, Warren, Sanders, etc.  Also, the voters have decided that the tax bill is not what was promised and their lives will be worse not better under Trump and the GOPers.

"If the DNC, as well as local Dems, can stick to a strategy tailored to each district (or state for Senate seats),    they increase their changes of gaining a majority."  Exactly.

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In Illinois, the more moderate candidates in both parties won the primaries against the extremists in races for governor and a Congressional district.  But both were very close.

The governor's race will now pit two ultra-wealthy candidates against each other. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/illinois-primaries-offer-ideological-tests-for-both-parties/2018/03/20/b8715742-2b90-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html?wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1

James Hohman's article in Washington Post posits that the extreme wings of both parties in IL are exerting more pressure on moderates.

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3 hours ago, TheCid said:

In Illinois, the more moderate candidates in both parties won the primaries against the extremists in races for governor and a Congressional district.  But both were very close.

The governor's race will now pit two ultra-wealthy candidates against each other. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/illinois-primaries-offer-ideological-tests-for-both-parties/2018/03/20/b8715742-2b90-11e8-8688-e053ba58f1e4_story.html?wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1

James Hohman's article in Washington Post posits that the extreme wings of both parties in IL are exerting more pressure on moderates.

Yea,  another non pro-choice Dem wins a primary.    Maybe the Dems have wised up as it relates to running candidates that can win since they more closely reflect the voters in their district \ state.    

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4 hours ago, Gershwin fan said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-03-19/the-ex-con-coal-baron-running-for-senate-in-west-virginia

1200x-1.jpg

Don Blankenship was jailed for contributing to the worst coal mine disaster in a generation. Now he’s after his nemesis Joe Manchin’s job.

Looks like a classic case of 'it's the economy, stupid'.    E.g.  here in CA GOP House incumbents are running ads saying 'see that extra revenue you have on your paycheck,  that is all due to the tax cuts that XYZ voted for!'.

This is a very simple political strategy;   pass a bill that gives the 'little people' a few pennies and then run on that in the next election.

 

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6 minutes ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Looks like a classic case of 'it's the economy, stupid'.    E.g.  here in CA GOP House incumbents are running ads saying 'see that extra revenue you have on your paycheck,  that is all due to the tax cuts that XYZ voted for!'.

This is a very simple political strategy;   pass a bill that gives the 'little people' a few pennies and then run on that in the next election.

 

Yes, that is a common strategy among the GOP. Those tax/ regulation cuts have effects though. This particular politician served time in prison for killing his own coal miners through negligence. He's a literal criminal running for office and his rich friends/ donors don't seem to mind.

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22 minutes ago, Gershwin fan said:

Yes, that is a common strategy among the GOP. Those tax/ regulation cuts have effects though. This particular politician served time in prison for killing his own coal miners through negligence. He's a literal criminal running for office and his rich friends/ donors don't seem to mind.

Florida's current governor Rick Scott presided over the largest case of Medicare fraud in U.S. history. And this was known before the election, and he still won. Twice.

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With regards to Nancy Pelosi.   Here are the results from a Survey USA of California voters:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nancy Pelosi is doing as minority leader of the US House?

36% approve,  45% disapprove with 19% 'not sure'. 

Even in her own San Francisco district only 39% approved,  and 42% disapproved.    In SF she has lost the faith of these mostly liberal voters.

Again,  this is in super blue CA! 

Time for Pelosi to go away! 

 

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2 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

With regards to Nancy Pelosi.   Here are the results from a Survey USA of California voters:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nancy Pelosi is doing as minority leader of the US House?

36% approve,  45% disapprove with 19% 'not sure'. 

Even in her own San Francisco district only 39% approved,  and 42% disapproved.    In SF she has lost the faith of these mostly liberal voters.

Again,  this is in super blue CA! 

Time for Pelosi to go away! 

 

Hopefully the DNC and rest of the party read the survey.

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Read an interesting article on this subject a few days ago. The  main factor in mid

term elections is not the popularity/unpopularity of the Congressional party leaders

but that of the president and in general how voters feel things are going. So whatever

Pelosi's poll standing is, it is not that much of a factor.

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