TheCid

2018 Elections

264 posts in this topic

On 3/29/2018 at 4:25 PM, Vautrin said:

Read an interesting article on this subject a few days ago. The  main factor in mid

term elections is not the popularity/unpopularity of the Congressional party leaders

but that of the president and in general how voters feel things are going. So whatever

Pelosi's poll standing is, it is not that much of a factor.

We'll see. The Trump era has turned previous concepts upside down.  Previous election concepts indicated Trump could not win the GOP nomination, much less the presidency.  But, he did.

The Dems must get huge number of people who voted for Trump and other extremist Republicans to vote for Democrats.  That will be a hard sell.  The GOP will use Pelosi, Sanders, Warren, Hillary, Obama and others as a scare tactic.  In part, this is how they got the power they have now.

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6 hours ago, TheCid said:

We'll see. The Trump era has turned previous concepts upside down.  Previous election concepts indicated Trump could not win the GOP nomination, much less the presidency.  But, he did.

The Dems must get huge number of people who voted for Trump and other extremist Republicans to vote for Democrats.  That will be a hard sell.  The GOP will use Pelosi, Sanders, Warren, Hillary, Obama and others as a scare tactic.  In part, this is how they got the power they have now.

Trump has deep sixed some of the received political wisdom. We'll have to

wait till November to see if he does in this case also. The Republican in the

recent House special election in PA targeted Pelosi too and he still lost in a

district that Donny won by almost twenty points.

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15 hours ago, Vautrin said:

Trump has deep sixed some of the received political wisdom. We'll have to

wait till November to see if he does in this case also. The Republican in the

recent House special election in PA targeted Pelosi too and he still lost in a

district that Donny won by almost twenty points.

However, the winning Dem. in PA also targeted Pelosi.  He said he would vote to replace her as speaker.

Interesting article in USA Today publications reporting that 1/3 of GOP House election commercials are targeting Nancy Pelosi. It was 58% in PA and 55% in GA special elections. She is viewed positively by 21% and negatively by 43% of Americans in recent polling.

The ads are focusing on what happens if she becomes Speaker of the House - and that turns a lot of people off.  The goal is to get the GOP voters who are turned off by Trump to hold their noses and vote Republican once again.  At the same time, the ads will encourage the independents in the swing districts to come out and vote for GOPers.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/01/nancy-pelosi-targeted-republican-2018-midterm-congressional-commercials/469453002/

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6 hours ago, TheCid said:

However, the winning Dem. in PA also targeted Pelosi.  He said he would vote to replace her as speaker.

Interesting article in USA Today publications reporting that 1/3 of GOP House election commercials are targeting Nancy Pelosi. It was 58% in PA and 55% in GA special elections. She is viewed positively by 21% and negatively by 43% of Americans in recent polling.

The ads are focusing on what happens if she becomes Speaker of the House - and that turns a lot of people off.  The goal is to get the GOP voters who are turned off by Trump to hold their noses and vote Republican once again.  At the same time, the ads will encourage the independents in the swing districts to come out and vote for GOPers.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/01/nancy-pelosi-targeted-republican-2018-midterm-congressional-commercials/469453002/

I doubt Lamb targeted Pelosi as hard as the GOP candidate did. If the

past is any predictor, Pelosi will be a minor factor in this year's midterms. 

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2 hours ago, Vautrin said:

I doubt Lamb targeted Pelosi as hard as the GOP candidate did. If the

past is any predictor, Pelosi will be a minor factor in this year's midterms. 

You would be wrong yet again.    You see Lamb had to appeal to independents and by saying 'I'm not a Pelosi type Dem' he did.    The GOP candidate couldn't play that card since,  uh,   he isn't a  DEM!!!!!

 

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5 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

You would be wrong yet again.    You see Lamb had to appeal to independents and by saying 'I'm not a Pelosi type Dem' he did.    The GOP candidate couldn't play that card since,  uh,   he isn't a  DEM!!!!!

 

If one's number one concern is Pelosi becoming Speaker, why vote for any Democrat?

Much safer to vote for a Republican. It's really not clear that Pelosi had much of an impact

on this race anyway.

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11 hours ago, Vautrin said:

If one's number one concern is Pelosi becoming Speaker, why vote for any Democrat?

Much safer to vote for a Republican. It's really not clear that Pelosi had much of an impact

on this race anyway.

But, the important aspect is that the Democratic candidate came out against the most powerful Democratic in the country.  He publicly stated he would not vote for Pelosi for Speaker of the House.  Considering how small his victory was, this may have been the edge that got him over.

James and I are just saying that the GOP will use every negative tool in their toolbox and Pelosi is a big one.  When the Dems are trying so hard to regain control of the House and maybe the Senate, they need to be more proactive in presenting themselves as the party that wants what is best for ALL Americans, not just the liberals.

Another factor is that many are afraid that if the Dems do regain the House and Pelosi is Speaker and Adam Shift is head of the committee to investigate Trump, there will be even more chaos in Washington and the country.  The "liberal" Dems will focus almost exclusively on impeaching Trump, investigating Trump, his business and his family and even more. 

Not saying Trump and all his associates, relationships, campaigns, business dealings, etc. shouldn't be investigated.  But more moderate Dem leadership would make sure to place primary focus on the major problems facing this country.

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11 hours ago, Vautrin said:

If one's number one concern is Pelosi becoming Speaker, why vote for any Democrat?

Much safer to vote for a Republican. It's really not clear that Pelosi had much of an impact

on this race anyway.

Again,  her are some polling result from last week.    As Cid states,  in close elections little things matter.   

With regards to Nancy Pelosi.   Here are the results from a Survey USA of California voters:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nancy Pelosi is doing as minority leader of the US House?

36% approve,  45% disapprove with 19% 'not sure'. 

Even in her own San Francisco district only 39% approved,  and 42% disapproved.    In SF she has lost the faith of these mostly liberal voters.

Again,  this is in super blue CA! 

 

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5 hours ago, TheCid said:

But, the important aspect is that the Democratic candidate came out against the most powerful Democratic in the country.  He publicly stated he would not vote for Pelosi for Speaker of the House.  Considering how small his victory was, this may have been the edge that got him over.

James and I are just saying that the GOP will use every negative tool in their toolbox and Pelosi is a big one.  When the Dems are trying so hard to regain control of the House and maybe the Senate, they need to be more proactive in presenting themselves as the party that wants what is best for ALL Americans, not just the liberals.

Another factor is that many are afraid that if the Dems do regain the House and Pelosi is Speaker and Adam Shift is head of the committee to investigate Trump, there will be even more chaos in Washington and the country.  The "liberal" Dems will focus almost exclusively on impeaching Trump, investigating Trump, his business and his family and even more. 

Not saying Trump and all his associates, relationships, campaigns, business dealings, etc. shouldn't be investigated.  But more moderate Dem leadership would make sure to place primary focus on the major problems facing this country.

Won't Lamb being running in a new district in November? I would **** if it was more

Democratic and he switched his position on Pelosi. And both parties always say they want

what is best for all Americans, so that never means very much. From what I recall, Pelosi

has not been all in for trying to impeach Trump. I think she realizes it's not a good idea at

this time. 

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5 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Again,  her are some polling result from last week.    As Cid states,  in close elections little things matter.   

With regards to Nancy Pelosi.   Here are the results from a Survey USA of California voters:

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Nancy Pelosi is doing as minority leader of the US House?

36% approve,  45% disapprove with 19% 'not sure'. 

Even in her own San Francisco district only 39% approved,  and 42% disapproved.    In SF she has lost the faith of these mostly liberal voters.

Again,  this is in super blue CA! 

 

I wonder if voters in her district think she's not liberal enough or is not going

after Donny enough. 

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21 minutes ago, Vautrin said:

Won't Lamb being running in a new district in November? I would **** if it was more

Democratic and he switched his position on Pelosi. And both parties always say they want

what is best for all Americans, so that never means very much. From what I recall, Pelosi

has not been all in for trying to impeach Trump. I think she realizes it's not a good idea at

this time. 

If I recall correctly, the new district will be more Democrat leaning.

While both parties present themselves as wanting what is best for all Americans, the GOPers do a better job of selling it.  At least to the majority of American voters.  I mentioned this before the last election, but I remember watching way too much news and way too much coverage of the Clinton campaign.  However, it did suddenly occur to me near the end that Hillary and the Dem Party presented themselves as representing everyone except me:  older, white, middle-class, male.

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2 hours ago, TheCid said:

If I recall correctly, the new district will be more Democrat leaning.

While both parties present themselves as wanting what is best for all Americans, the GOPers do a better job of selling it.  At least to the majority of American voters.  I mentioned this before the last election, but I remember watching way too much news and way too much coverage of the Clinton campaign.  However, it did suddenly occur to me near the end that Hillary and the Dem Party presented themselves as representing everyone except me:  older, white, middle-class, male.

I too think that the new district will be more Democratic. I agree that in general

the GOP does a better job of selling that message, even if they don't often follow

it. A Democratic candidate has to go to where they believe their votes are, and

that's usually not to older white middle class males. That's a demographic that is

in general not welcoming to more liberal stances on social and economic issues.

I think the Democrats' theory is that it's better to get your voters to the polls than

to try to convert voters who are not likely to be converted in large numbers.

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2 hours ago, Vautrin said:

I wonder if voters in her district think she's not liberal enough or is not going

after Donny enough. 

Yes,  some in her district are disappointed with her stance on illegal immigration since she claims to NOT be for amnesty for everyone,  even criminals and open borders. 

Still it is clear that Pelosi or 99% of CA Dems are not well liked by independents in fly-over states.

 

   

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5 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Yes,  some in her district are disappointed with her stance on illegal immigration since she claims to NOT be for amnesty for everyone,  even criminals and open borders. 

Still it is clear that Pelosi or 99% of CA Dems are not well liked by independents in fly-over states.

 

   

At least among the flyover folks who even know who Pelosi is. She might have attained

a very special position by being known by people who don't even know who their own

House member is. 

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15 hours ago, Vautrin said:

I too think that the new district will be more Democratic. I agree that in general

the GOP does a better job of selling that message, even if they don't often follow

it. A Democratic candidate has to go to where they believe their votes are, and

that's usually not to older white middle class males. That's a demographic that is

in general not welcoming to more liberal stances on social and economic issues.

I think the Democrats' theory is that it's better to get your voters to the polls than

to try to convert voters who are not likely to be converted in large numbers.

How'd that work in 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016?

Turn out is important, but if the GOPers turn out more who vote their way, the Dems lose.  Turn out among Dem favorable groups put Obama in the White House, but at the same time the GOPers were taking over the Senate, the House, governorships, state legislatures, county councils, school boards, etc.

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7 hours ago, TheCid said:

How'd that work in 2010, 2012, 2014 and 2016?

Turn out is important, but if the GOPers turn out more who vote their way, the Dems lose.  Turn out among Dem favorable groups put Obama in the White House, but at the same time the GOPers were taking over the Senate, the House, governorships, state legislatures, county councils, school boards, etc.

2018 may not turn out to be 2010, etc. It's foolish to base your election hopes

on a group that is largely hostile to your message. I don't blame Obama for the

losses in other offices, especially non-federal ones. If all, or even most, politics is

local, than it's hard to blame the sitting POTUS for state legislature or school board

losses. Some of the talking heads are saying it's not enough for the Democrats to

be anti-Trump, but that will be a big part of it. The campaign language will not be

that obvious, but most Dems will be running on a we're not Trump "platform."

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19 hours ago, Vautrin said:

2018 may not turn out to be 2010, etc. It's foolish to base your election hopes

on a group that is largely hostile to your message. I don't blame Obama for the

losses in other offices, especially non-federal ones. If all, or even most, politics is

local, than it's hard to blame the sitting POTUS for state legislature or school board

losses. Some of the talking heads are saying it's not enough for the Democrats to

be anti-Trump, but that will be a big part of it. The campaign language will not be

that obvious, but most Dems will be running on a we're not Trump "platform."

I'm not blaming Obama for losses in other offices.  He probably helped in some cases by increasing the Dem turnout.  I'm blaming the Democratic Party and especially the leadership of the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party is not putting out a message at the state, local and Congressional level that appeals to enough voters.  In addition, they are permitting the GOPers and others to link the local candidates to the National Democratic Party and the leaders of the party.  Not to mention the most liberal policies advocating by the National Democratic Party.  The policies that turned off so many voters in 2016 - and before.

Running as Anti-Trump may win a few races, but not enough to make a real difference locally or nationally.  Essentially the Dems ran an Anti-Trump campaign in 2016.  The Dem candidates have to come up with a platform that appeals to a majority of the people who vote.

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4 hours ago, TheCid said:

I'm not blaming Obama for losses in other offices.  He probably helped in some cases by increasing the Dem turnout.  I'm blaming the Democratic Party and especially the leadership of the Democratic Party.

The Democratic Party is not putting out a message at the state, local and Congressional level that appeals to enough voters.  In addition, they are permitting the GOPers and others to link the local candidates to the National Democratic Party and the leaders of the party.  Not to mention the most liberal policies advocating by the National Democratic Party.  The policies that turned off so many voters in 2016 - and before.

Running as Anti-Trump may win a few races, but not enough to make a real difference locally or nationally.  Essentially the Dems ran an Anti-Trump campaign in 2016.  The Dem candidates have to come up with a platform that appeals to a majority of the people who vote.

Well, the national Democratic party is liberal, so I don't know what they can do about

that without veering close to Republican lite. Of course as the PA House election showed,

individual candidates can differ from that stance and win. In red districts that is a wise

course, in blue districts it likely won't be necessary. And so far, Democrats have had a

pretty good 2018. Of course in presidential elections years each party runs an anti-other

candidate campaign to some degree. And by November of 2018 voters will have had

almost two years of Trump. Anti-Trump might drive a lot of voters. Of course Democratic

candidates will have a platform to talk about, but we're not Trump will be an unspoken part

of that. No candidate has to come out and say it, it will be obvious.

 

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https://theintercept.com/2018/04/06/shri-thanedar-michigan-millionaire-bernie-sanders-republican/?comments=1#comments

A BERNIE-BRANDED MILLIONAIRE IS LEADING THE DEMOCRATIC RACE FOR GOVERNOR. HE ALMOST RAN AS A REPUBLICAN, CONSULTANTS SAY.

A MICHIGAN GUBERNATORIAL candidate who has branded himself as the Bernie Sanders of the 2018 race privately mused about running as an independent or Republican just weeks before launching his campaign, according to four political consultants and one small business association representative he met with.

Shri Thanedar, a millionaire who has poured millions of dollars of his own money into the race, ultimately decided to run as a progressive Democrat. He is now first in some polls, eclipsing former state Senate Democratic Leader Gretchen Whitmer and former Detroit Public Health chief Abdul El-Sayed, whose campaign is largely staffed by veterans of Sanders’s actual presidential campaign.

Thanedar has referred to himself as a “fiscally savvy Bernie,” and is pushing a platform full of Sanders’s progressive policy priorities. He’s claiming he will advocate for things like a single-payer health care system and a $15 minimum wage, both of which are uphill battles in Michigan and can only pass with a committed governor and legislature who do not abandon them out of political timidity. The campaign ads he has spent millions on call him the “most progressive Democrat running for governor.”

Joe DiSano, who runs the Michigan-based consulting firm DiSano Strategies, told The Intercept that he first met with Thanedar in January 2017, before he announced his bid for governor. “Shri didn’t know what party banner to run under. But he was certainly running,” DiSano said.

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This is fairly interesting re:  five people who voted for Trump, but will probably vote Dem in 2018.  Appears four of the five should have voted Dem in 2016, but were "registered" Republicans and always voted for the R on the ballot.

For me, the one group the Dems really needs to focus upon is the 77 year old white guy from Virginia.  While still keeping the others.

As always, the Dems. really need to focus on winning the county and state elections.  That is where the "Red Wave" began.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/five-americans-explain-the-burst-of-enthusiasm-for-democratic-candidates-and-causes/2018/04/11/18e32e86-3b39-11e8-974f-aacd97698cef_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.33fb53abd04d&wpisrc=nl_headlines&wpmm=1

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On 4/12/2018 at 6:19 PM, mr6666 said:

NBC NewsVerified account @NBCNews 2h2 hours ago

 
 

The South is often viewed as a conservative monolith, but the region's political views are more nuanced — and moderate — than many might expect, according to new NBC News/SurveyMonkey polls https://nbcnews.to/2qqVWfu  (1/5)

:unsure:

Interesting.  However, as with all polls it really depends on who actually shows up to vote in November.  For most of the Deep South, the Republican candidates will overwhelm any Democrats.  It will be interesting to look at who wins the elections in Nov. and see if any of the winners espouse any of the ideas in this poll.

In S.C., and I suspect much of the South, the voters are adamantly opposed to tax increases for any reason.  Also opposed to legal status for illegal immigrants and LGBT rights and same sex marriages.  They are very much in favor of installing evangelical Christianity as the preferred religion.

After 20+ years, the S. C. legislature finally passed a small fuel tax increase.  It was second lowest in nation.  Governor vetoed it, but legislature barely over rode it.  Reducing taxes is the mantra of all the GOP candidates for office in S.C.  Except for the few who don't comment on it at all.

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Latest from Washington Post indicates that the Democrats' midterm election support is shrinking based on a WP-ABC poll.  Couple this with the GOP initiating a $250 Million ground campaign and the election will be tighter.

The recent victories for the Dems in special elections may be making them overconfident.  It may also cause them to underestimate what the majority of voters actually will do in Nov. on a nationwide basis.

44% of Americans have an unfavorable view of Pelosi and the GOPers are capitalizing on this.  Views on guns are a major concern, both pro gun control and anti gun control.  Trump is rising in the polls and may not be as big an issue as some Dems think when it comes down to House and Senate races, let alone state races.

Jan. polling of registered voters showed Dems with a 12 point advantage vs. only a 4 point advantage now.  This was preference in respondents' congressional districts.

In other words, the Dems better not get too confident.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/poll-democrats-advantage-in-midterm-elections-has-been-cut-more-than-half/2018/04/15/5450d99e-3f6e-11e8-8d53-eba0ed2371cc_story.html?utm_term=.1c2c4f98e60f&wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1

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"Pledging to impeach President Trump would backfire on Democrats hoping to take back the House of Representatives this fall, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll.

The survey finds that 47 percent of registered voters would definitely vote against a candidate who wanted to remove Trump from office, while 42 percent would definitely vote for a candidate who would make such a promise. Forty-seven percent of independent voters — whose opinions could be decisive — also say they would vote against candidates favoring impeachment.

Would you definitely vote for or definitely vote against a candidate for Congress who wants to move to impeach President Trump?

  • Definitely vote for
  • Unsure
  • Definitely vote against
020%40%60%80%100%42%10%47%70%12%18%10%6%84%42%11%47%
  • Overall
  • Democrats
  • Republicans
  • Independents

Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll of 827 registered voters conducted April 10-13. Margin of error: +/- 3.9 percentage points. Numbers may not add up to 100 because of rounding.

Credit: Alyson Hurt/NPR

https://www.npr.org/2018/04/18/603408469/npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-pushing-impeachment-would-backfire-on-democrats-in?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=politics&utm_term=nprn

 

Americans want Congress to focus on health care, not a border wall

One of the president's top legislative priorities doesn't garner much support among the public, either. Just over half of Americans (55 percent) said building a border wall between the U.S. and Mexico should not be a priority for Congress at all, with just under a quarter saying it should be an immediate priority. Roughly half of Republicans say it should be an immediate priority, though 20 percent still say it shouldn't be a priority at all.

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I can see that impeachment is a bad campaign idea for Democrats.  Many independents, as well as Dems., just don't want the turmoil that would occur.  Not to mention it would distract from what country really needs and trying to undo all the bad things Trump and GOPers have done. In addition, it would fail in the Senate.

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