TheCid

2018 Elections

214 posts in this topic

Another interesting article on the 2018 elections for the House.  Could also factor into the Senate races as well as state races.

It is about who actually shows up to vote in districts that can swing from one party to another.  The Pelosi/Sanders/Warren messaging will drive the majority to the Republican candidate.

www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/05/17/who-will-decide-which-party-controls-the-house-whiter-wealthier-americans/?utm_term=.0cc179e58574&wpisrc=nl_politics&wpmm=1

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44 minutes ago, LawrenceA said:

I'm starting to see political ads for the upcoming races, which here in Florida include governor and US senator, along with representatives. As usual I'm seeing many more Republican ads than Democrats, and all of the PAC commercials have been from conservative groups. So far the narrative from the right seems to be that Dems in Washington do nothing while living large off of the taxpayers back, all while not having term limits. Term limits in Congress seems to be a big rallying cry from the Right this time around. That's the talking point that current governor and Senate candidate Rick Scott keeps harping on, obviously do the incumbent opponent, Bill Nelson, having first been elected to the senate 18 years ago, after serving in the House from '79 to '91.

I think term limits is one of those things that a lot of politicians talk about, but never gets to a floor vote.  There may be a few states that have actually enacted it, but I don't know of them.

Personally I support term limits, especially for appointive offices.  Many boards, commissions, etc. have members with 30 or 40 years of service.  Once appointed, the appointing authority almost never fails to reappoint the incumbent.

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Received a mail packet today from "Trey Gowdy" with information and request that I send money to him at a PO Box in Washington DC to support Rep Mia Love (R), Utah.  Already has my name and address on the return address of the envelope.  Trey Gowdy is retiring from the House and is not my representative.  My representative has no opponent in primary and will get between 65% and 75% of vote in Nov.  He also has a large campaign war chest.

Naturally there are remarks about how the liberal Dems, Nancy Pelosi, etc. are going to ruin the country.

I searched the internet.  Love is a two term "conservative" Republican from Utah.  Her parents emigrated from Haiti and she was born in NY.  Due to her birth in US, parents were able to become US citizens and bring their other two children over from Haiti.  Chain migration?

Since I never send money to GOP, I was surprised that they would ask me to support a candidate in Utah.  I'm sure it has nothing to do with her being a black woman.

Does make one wonder about what tactics the GOP will use this year to keep their control of governments.

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5 minutes ago, TheCid said:

Received a mail packet today from "Trey Gowdy" with information and request that I send money to him at a PO Box in Washington DC to support Rep Mia Love (R), Utah.  Already has my name and address on the return address of the envelope.  Trey Gowdy is retiring from the House and is not my representative.  My representative has no opponent in primary and will get between 65% and 75% of vote in Nov.  He also has a large campaign war chest.

Naturally there are remarks about how the liberal Dems, Nancy Pelosi, etc. are going to ruin the country.

I searched the internet.  Love is a two term "conservative" Republican from Utah.  Her parents emigrated from Haiti and she was born in NY.  Due to her birth in US, parents were able to become US citizens and bring their other two children over from Haiti.  Chain migration?

Since I never send money to GOP, I was surprised that they would ask me to support a candidate in Utah.  I'm sure it has nothing to do with her being a black woman.

Does make one wonder about what tactics the GOP will use this year to keep their control of governments.

Are you registered as a Republican?   If NOT what would be the reason you would get any request from the GOP to support a GOP candidate?

These mailings are typically very targeted and therefore there must be some profile you 'matched' to get this.

 

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9 minutes ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Are you registered as a Republican?   If NOT what would be the reason you would get any request from the GOP to support a GOP candidate?

These mailings are typically very targeted and therefore there must be some profile you 'matched' to get this.

 

We don't register in S.C. and the primaries are open.  Anybody can vote in either the Republican or Democratic primary.  Voting is in same voting places and "managed" by state and county election commissions.  When you sign in you ask for a Dem or GOP "ballot."  Poll worker inserts it into the voting machine and appropriate party ballot comes up on screen.

Always vote in GOP primary because there is zero chance of a Dem winning at county, state or federal level in my area.  So I want to try to get the best candidate possible nominated.  Not very successful, but I keep trying.

Been getting mailings and requests for money for years.  What got me was that it was a request for a Utah representative.

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https://outline.com/Dt84yx

Farm Bill's Future Hinges on Fight Over Limits on Immigration

A fight over U.S. immigration policy -- not agriculture -- led to the demise of farm legislation on Friday.

The House’s $867 billion farm bill had a narrow path to passage because Democrats opposed work requirements for beneficiaries of the measure’s most costly program: food stamps. That left the bill’s fate in the hands of a group of Republican lawmakers demanding new restrictions on legal immigration.

When the conservative House Freedom Caucus failed to win an immediate vote on immigration legislation that its members favor, some of them joined Democrats to reject the farm bill. The measure -- relied on by farmers and ranchers in many states dominated by Republicans -- would renew agriculture programs, including subsidies for farmers and government-backed crop insurers.

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On ‎5‎/‎17‎/‎2018 at 10:59 AM, LawrenceA said:

I'm starting to see political ads for the upcoming races, which here in Florida include governor and US senator, along with representatives. As usual I'm seeing many more Republican ads than Democrats, and all of the PAC commercials have been from conservative groups. So far the narrative from the right seems to be that Dems in Washington do nothing while living large off of the taxpayers back, all while not having term limits. Term limits in Congress seems to be a big rallying cry from the Right this time around. That's the talking point that current governor and Senate candidate Rick Scott keeps harping on, obviously do the incumbent opponent, Bill Nelson, having first been elected to the senate 18 years ago, after serving in the House from '79 to '91.

Most of the Republican ads I see here in Georgia for the governor's race are of the "who's the most conservative" variety with all the candidates touting their gun-loving anti-immigrant bona fides.

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On 5/17/2018 at 3:04 PM, TheCid said:

When you sign in you ask for a Dem or GOP "ballot."

Forgot to ask you about this;  if the primary in your state is 'open' why the need for Dem or GOP "ballot"?   (OR is this 'asking' just some leftover protocol since there is only one ballot?).

Here in CA we now have an open primary but there is only one generic ballot;  (since one can vote for a candidate from any party all of them are listed,  per office,  on one ballot).

Thanks

 

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1 hour ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Forgot to ask you about this;  if the primary in your state is 'open' why the need for Dem or GOP "ballot"?   (OR is this 'asking' just some leftover protocol since there is only one ballot?).

Here in CA we now have an open primary but there is only one generic ballot;  (since one can vote for a candidate from any party all of them are listed,  per office,  on one ballot).

Thanks

 

Different definitions of open.  In S.C., open means any registered voter can vote in either primary.  You ask for the Dem or GOP ballot because the voting is done in the same place.  But you have to either vote in the GOP or Dem primary.  If there is a run-off, you can only vote in the one in which you originally voted.

The Republicans in S.C. are fighting real hard to have closed primaries with pre-registration for parties.  They also want municipal and school board elections to be by party.  Right now, they are still non-partisan.  No party labels.

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11 minutes ago, TheCid said:

Different definitions of open.  In S.C., open means any registered voter can vote in either primary.  You ask for the Dem or GOP ballot because the voting is done in the same place.  But you have to either vote in the GOP or Dem primary.  If there is a run-off, you can only vote in the one in which you originally voted.

The Republicans in S.C. are fighting real hard to have closed primaries with pre-registration for parties.  They also want municipal and school board elections to be by party.  Right now, they are still non-partisan.  No party labels.

Thanks for info.  Ok,  that was what I assumed,  but I didn't wish to just assume.    To me the S.C. 'open' just means that one can decide the day of the primary instead of having to pre-registrar.   

Here in CA the 'top two with the most votes' is creating some 'odd' campaigning.   E.g. in the Governor race  Newsom is the leading candidate.   His odds of winning the general election are much higher if he faces a GOP candidate instead of another Dem).   So he is helping the leading GOP candidate by running some clever ads designed to get GOP voters to go out and vote for this GOP candidate.    The 2nd and 3rd place Dem candidates are running ads against each other but NOT Newsom with the hope they will end up #2,  but if they split up NON Newsom Dem voters,  that just helps a GOP candidate become #2 (assisting Newsom in the General).   

Like you do in S.C.  (but the inverse), since a Dem is highly likely to win in the General,  I'm voting for the most moderate Dem hoping for a two Dem face off in the General with the moderate Dem winning due to support from centralist and hold-their-nose GOP voters.

 

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Since we do not have registration by party, anybody can call themselves a Democrat or Republican or whatever.  They do have to sign up with the respective party to run in the primaries.  That has caused some rancor for former Dems to show up with cash in hand and sign up to run in GOP primary.  Some attempts by party officials to deny it, but I do not believe they have been successful.

A Dem cannot sign up to run in the general as a Republican if they did not run in the Republican primary.  They can run as an independent.  Even losing Republicans can run as independents, but seldom works.

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2 hours ago, TheCid said:

Since we do not have registration by party, anybody can call themselves a Democrat or Republican or whatever.  They do have to sign up with the respective party to run in the primaries.  That has caused some rancor for former Dems to show up with cash in hand and sign up to run in GOP primary.  Some attempts by party officials to deny it, but I do not believe they have been successful.

A Dem cannot sign up to run in the general as a Republican if they did not run in the Republican primary.  They can run as an independent.  Even losing Republicans can run as independents, but seldom works.

But have any of these "Dems" running as a Republican in the primary actually won?    It would take a lot of outreach to get enough crossover votes from Dem voters (i.e. voters that typically vote Dem to ask for that GOP ballot so they could support this renegade candidate) and any other confused Republican voters to beat the 'true' GOP candidates running for the office. 

 

 

  

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13 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

But have any of these "Dems" running as a Republican in the primary actually won?    It would take a lot of outreach to get enough crossover votes from Dem voters (i.e. voters that typically vote Dem to ask for that GOP ballot so they could support this renegade candidate) and any other confused Republican voters to beat the 'true' GOP candidates running for the office. 

 

 

  

No.  They do not try to get Dems to crossover to GOP primary, but rather recognize that even if win Dem primary, they will lose in November general election.  So they try to become instant Republicans.  Also, that they are no longer Dems anyway.

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Hillary Clinton speaks at Yale.   Of course, Bernie Sanders continues to shoot off his mouth about the socialist state he wants in US.How many more votes will that get for Republicans in November?  They just don't learn.

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72% of Democrats Say Opposing Trump Isn't Enough, Want Congressional Candidates to Push Progressive Agenda

The largest portion of respondents also said they'd be "more likely" to vote for a candidate backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)

"We cannot defeat Trump and the Republican Party with the same playbook, or by supporting the same kind of candidates long favored by the political establishment and financial elite."
—Sen. Bernie Sanders

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/05/21/72-democrats-say-opposing-trump-isnt-enough-want-congressional-candidates-push?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

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7 minutes ago, mr6666 said:

72% of Democrats Say Opposing Trump Isn't Enough, Want Congressional Candidates to Push Progressive Agenda

The largest portion of respondents also said they'd be "more likely" to vote for a candidate backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)

"We cannot defeat Trump and the Republican Party with the same playbook, or by supporting the same kind of candidates long favored by the political establishment and financial elite."
—Sen. Bernie Sanders

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/05/21/72-democrats-say-opposing-trump-isnt-enough-want-congressional-candidates-push?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=socialnetwork

Most interesting thing I read was following: "Strong support for a progressive agenda was also reflected in responses to a question asked of everyone surveyed—including Republicans and Republican-leaning voters—that aimed to gauge the potential impact of endorsements: The largest amount of respondents, 29 percent, said they would be "more likely" to vote for a candidate endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), more than double that of House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.

Although 29 percent also said they would be more likely to vote for someone backed by Trump, the president and Pelosi tied at 44 percent of respondents who said an endorsement would make them "less likely" to support a candidate. Asked about their views of Trump, the largest portion—41 percent—said, "I am against Trump, period."

It appears Pelosi definitely should stay out of it.  However, the gist of the article shows that 72% of Dems surveyed support progressive agenda.  Probably the same 72% that got Trump and tons of Republicans elected in last 3-4 election cycles.

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21 minutes ago, TheCid said:

It appears Pelosi definitely should stay out of it.  However, the gist of the article shows that 72% of Dems surveyed support progressive agenda.  Probably the same 72% that got Trump and tons of Republicans elected in last 3-4 election cycles.

I completely understand where you are coming from, but isn't it sad that the conservatives get to keep voting for what they believe in, while the progressives are expected to just vote for the least worst option?

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Turning up the heat on Trump: Dems say 'culture of corruption' to be focus of midterms-

The party has decided to go full drain the swamp on the president's administration, after debating whether to target economic issues or alleged wrongdoing in the coming elections.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/turning-heat-trump-dem-charges-corruption-be-key-focus-midterms-n876161?cid=sm_npd_ms_tw_ma

<_<

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https://theintercept.com/2018/05/21/texas-21-congressional-district-joseph-kopser-mary-wilson/

IN TEXAS RUNOFF, NATIONAL DEMOCRATS BACK FORMER REPUBLICAN OVER GRASSROOTS MATH TEACHER

IN LATE APRIL, a conservative Texas think tank sued the city of Austin to block a new ordinance that, starting October 1, would give employees the right to take eight paid sick days per year – a first for the state. That lawsuit, filed by the Texas Public Policy Foundation, sparked a dispute in an unusual space: the runoff in the Democratic primary in Texas’s 21st Congressional District.

On May 22, businessperson Joseph Kopser will face off against pastor and former math teacher Mary Wilson in a runoff election. Kopser happens to serve on the board of the Texas Association of Businesses, a powerful business lobby that is a lead plaintiff in the lawsuit.

Critics of the lawsuit, including Wilson, see it as an attempt to hold Austin back from making progress on workers’ rights. She immediately called on Kopser to resign from the board, which he’s served on for the last three years.

“I wouldn’t be able to stand with them, as a member of their board, at this point,” she told The Intercept.

Kopser, though, is standing his ground. In an April statement, he said the lawsuit is “dead wrong” and vowed to “fight within” the business community to support the paid sick leave law.

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Judd LegumVerified account @JuddLegum 3h3 hours ago

 
 

Amy McGrath: 1. Was told by her Congressman at 13 that she shouldn't be allowed to be a fighter pilot 2. Became a fighter pilot

3. Refused to run ads on Sinclair TV for her Congressional campaign

4. Scored upset win fueled by massive rural turnout

---------------------------------------------

Massive Democratic turnout in rural Kentucky propels progressive Amy McGrath to upset victory-

She beat out Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, who started the race as a strong favorite and had the encouaragment of the national party.

https://thinkprogress.org/mcgrath-kentucky-wins-40b72bc9f936/

:)

 
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I wish all the Dem primary winners good luck in November.  But I just don't see them winning in TX, GA, KY, etc.  They will not appeal to the Republicans and Independents they will need to overcome the advantages the GOP has.

Incidentally, as a veteran the last reason I would have to vote for someone is because they are a veteran.  I respect their service and sacrifices, but does not necessarily give you the background to serve in government - or business for that matter.

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12 hours ago, mr6666 said:

Judd LegumVerified account @JuddLegum 3h3 hours ago

 
 

Amy McGrath: 1. Was told by her Congressman at 13 that she shouldn't be allowed to be a fighter pilot 2. Became a fighter pilot

3. Refused to run ads on Sinclair TV for her Congressional campaign

4. Scored upset win fueled by massive rural turnout

---------------------------------------------

Massive Democratic turnout in rural Kentucky propels progressive Amy McGrath to upset victory-

She beat out Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, who started the race as a strong favorite and had the encouaragment of the national party.

https://thinkprogress.org/mcgrath-kentucky-wins-40b72bc9f936/

:)

 

Uh,  she still hasn't won anything.     I.e.  one gains NO power (as in the ability to push forward policies), by 'winning' a primary.    See Cid's many post related to this.  

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