spence

Did anyone predict the Oscars?

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just curious to see if anyone gave it a shot & predicted the 2018 Oscars?

Glad I stuck with GREEN BOOK to win, though not my own personal favorite for the year

Personally I loved STAN & OLLIE the most

 

biggest surprise was Olivia Colman over Glenn Close for Best Actress


Anyone else?

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What's to predict? Their foul, fetid, despicable, reeking, pustulence? For cripe's sakes, Oscar-mania is truly the last vestige of the wastrel. Gets my goat. It's like the kind of person who says, "I listen to everything". What? I mean, does anyone watch the Grammys seeking recommendations for quality listening? Does anyone turn to the Emmys for advice on quality intellectual life via their TV?

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I thought the issue of who predicted what was addressed ad nauseum in another thread.-

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6 hours ago, Sgt_Markoff said:

What's to predict? Their foul, fetid, despicable, reeking, pustulence? For cripe's sakes, Oscar-mania is truly the last vestige of the wastrel. Gets my goat. It's like the kind of person who says, "I listen to everything". What? I mean, does anyone watch the Grammys seeking recommendations for quality listening? Does anyone turn to the Emmys for advice on quality intellectual life via their TV?

Even as someone who LIKES the Oscars--or at least the respectable five-nomination kind we used to have before 2005--you get to the age where you think, "How young was I to still try predicting Oscars?...High school?"

Think it's usually around the adolescent age, when A) emotions of anticipation for something you want are higher than normal, before the hormones cool down, and B ) anything you like is looked down on as too "unimportant" by authority, and you need the social validation of having a group agree with its importance.  It is literally not enough just to say "I'm looking forward to (...) in November."

It's okay to predict Oscars once the nominations have been released (as in, NOT from the Golden Globes lists), but if one is still caught up in predicting "What movies coming out in 2019 are sure Oscar favorites?", we're dealing with a very literal and figurative "Grow up."

(I remember a whole generation of pre-release gun-jumpers learned their lesson the year they banded together behind "Kevin Costner's going to make history again with another Picture-Director-Actor sweep for 'The Postman'!"...Okay, I see a few older folks cringing at the back.    :D )

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7 hours ago, spence said:

biggest surprise was Olivia Colman over Glenn Close for Best Actress

Not a surprise for those who believe in Olivia Colman's talent and expected her to be honored.

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Sorry. I was running over the brim in my posts of last night. But I just can't fathom how the Oscars even survives. I despise today's film industry pretty much from top to bottom. I usually don't dwell on this subject at any real length but last night I saw trailers for 'Captain Marvel'. Nearly made me vomit. It's embarrassing to know this is my country doing this, my nation's film industry which churns out this codswallop. Awards? For today's Hollywood? It's outrageous. Eh well I'll button up my lip about it. I apologize.

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12 minutes ago, Sgt_Markoff said:

Sorry. I was running over the brim in my posts of last night. But I just can't fathom how the Oscars even survives. I despise today's film industry pretty much from top to bottom. I usually don't dwell on this subject at any real length but last night I saw trailers for 'Captain Marvel'. Nearly made me vomit. It's embarrassing to know this is my country doing this, my nation's film industry which churns out this codswallop. Awards? For today's Hollywood? It's outrageous. Eh well I'll button up my lip about it. I apologize.

I agree. The whole thing is an exercise in narcissism. They're supposed to be honoring techniques. Which techniques work best in films for a given category. None of the acceptance speeches ever give us any real insights into the creative process, and why the honoree's technique was award-worthy.

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13 hours ago, Sgt_Markoff said:

What's to predict? Their foul, fetid, despicable, reeking, pustulence? For cripe's sakes, Oscar-mania is truly the last vestige of the wastrel. Gets my goat. It's like the kind of person who says, "I listen to everything". What? I mean, does anyone watch the Grammys seeking recommendations for quality listening? Does anyone turn to the Emmys for advice on quality intellectual life via their TV?

Donelevy'S one only shot at He actor *Oscar, se go ye yeas in   

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Yes. They held the ceremony, just as I predicted they would.

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7 hours ago, Sgt_Markoff said:

Sorry. I was running over the brim in my posts of last night. But I just can't fathom how the Oscars even survives. I despise today's film industry pretty much from top to bottom. I usually don't dwell on this subject at any real length but last night I saw trailers for 'Captain Marvel'. Nearly made me vomit. It's embarrassing to know this is my country doing this, my nation's film industry which churns out this codswallop. Awards? For today's Hollywood? It's outrageous. Eh well I'll button up my lip about it. I apologize.

Are you...EXPECTING Captain Marvel to be nominated, or just venting at Things That Bug You?  (Even as someone who likes Marvel movies, your spew wasn't far off, btw--The patient, ahem, mature moviegoer learns to take movies on a case-by-case basis.  And yeah, I know what I said earlier, but we're dealing with the two opposite sides of the same coin.)

Me, I say this every year--Usually in defense of the five-nomination rule (the one we got rid of after all those tantrums over Dark Knight and Wall-E not being nominated for Picture), and for getting rid of the Preferential Voting rule (the one that accidentally causes the second-place runner-up to get more votes, which, if you're wondering, is most likely HOW Green Book got the award):

In our local theater growing up--an old downtown theater that looked like an old local furniture store or Italian restaurant on the outside, and a cozy-nook three-screen theater on the inside--there was a long (to me, anyway) corridor going off to the other two screens built as a new wing onto the antique-palace main theater in later generations.  To decorate the corridor, they had framed collages of the Oscar-winner posters by decade, '29-'39, '40-49, etc...I might look at the 60's collage, with Lawrence of Arabia and Midnight Cowboy next to Sound of Music and Oliver, and think "Okay, two of those, I've heard of", and wonder about the other two.  As a result, every year I get excited about what movie DESERVES to be on that Hall-of-Fame wall:  I remember winning my betting pool against an entire film-class of students who were convinced The Killing Fields would be "powerful" enough to crush Amadeus, and when friends chortled "Ho ho, the Academy hates fantasy!...An elf movie against Clint Eastwood and Sean Penn??", my belief in the Oscars gave me the last laugh.  And yes, I do know why Chicago won for '02.

So, yeah, I'm PO'ed about Green Book too, but only because Black Panther, while not a great film, deserved to be on that wall--That was the film you'd want someone to be film-curious about twenty or thirty years later, while the critic-fueled Indie-attack of "Moonlight" and "Birdman" were....................................not.

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13 hours ago, TopBilled said:

Not a surprise for those who believe in Olivia Colman's talent and expected her to be honored.

Actually, that was the big surprise for me TopBilled. The Academy often act like someone trying to drive a car by looking in the rear view mirror. So I thought they'd give Close the Best Actress Oscar because of all of the times she probably should have won, and figuring that with Close in her 70s this might be their last chance to honor her. My understanding - haven't seen the film - is that Colman is actually more of a supporting performer than a lead in "The Favourite".

Other than that the Oscars were not surprising. I haven't watched the show in years. I just check who won online the next morning.

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10 minutes ago, calvinnme said:

Actually, that was the big surprise for me TopBilled. The Academy often act like someone trying to drive a car by looking in the rear view mirror. So I thought they'd give Close the Best Actress Oscar because of all of the times she probably should have won, and figuring that with Close in her 70s this might be their last chance to honor her. My understanding - haven't seen the film - is that Colman is actually more of a supporting performer than a lead in "The Favourite".

Other than that the Oscars were not surprising. I haven't watched the show in years. I just check who won online the next morning.

Why would it be Close's last nomination? People act into their 90s. I think people need to stop going on like Colman robbed Close. We don't even know if Close came in second with the voters. She could have been third. The result is verified by one of those accounting firms. So the fact is that Close did not get enough votes for the award and Colman did. As for prior nominations, the fact is that Close did not earn enough votes those times either. 

I wouldn't say it's because she's unpopular or being snubbed. The real problem is she's a character actress who is not considered a lead actress, even when she's playing a lead. Rosalind Russell had the same problem. If Roz had allowed herself to be put in the supporting category for PICNIC, she likely would have received an Oscar. Similarly, if Glenn Close changes course and allows herself to be put into the supporting category, even if she's credited above the title, I bet she will snag an Oscar. Her peers will probably vote for her as a supporting (character) actress, not as a lead. 

Glenn Close has earned a ton of awards in other areas of her career. In the meantime, we need to give Olivia Colman her due.

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2 minutes ago, TopBilled said:

Why would it be Close's last nomination? People act into their 90s. I think people need to stop going on like Colman robbed Close. We don't even know if Close came in second with the voters. She could have been third. The result is verified by one of those accounting firms. So the fact is that Close did not get enough votes for the award and Colman did. As for prior nominations, the fact is that Close did not earn enough votes those times either. 

I wouldn't say it's because she's unpopular or being snubbed. The real problem is she's a character actress who is not considered a lead actress, even when she's playing a lead. Rosalind Russell had the same problem. If Roz had allowed herself to be put in the supporting category for PICNIC, she likely would have received an Oscar. Similarly, if Glenn Close changes course and allows herself to be put into the supporting category, even if she's credited above the title, I bet she will snag an Oscar. Her peers will probably vote for her as a supporting (character) actress, not as a lead. 

Glenn Close has earned a ton of awards in other areas of her career. In the meantime, we need to give Olivia Colman her due.

Yes, people work into their 90s...until they don't, or can't.  They break a hip, or get AMD, or cancer and then chemo brain. You get the drift.  At no place in my post did I imply that anybody robbed anybody. I haven't even seen The Favourite, but it is obvious from her acceptance speech that Colman was the most surprised person in the room. I was guessing that Close would win the 88 Oscar back in the day for her performance in "Dangerous Liasons". To me, hers was the best performance that year that was nominated. But that doesn't mean that anybody "robbed" anybody.

Please do not put words in my mouth. I am trying to lose weight and they are high in calories.

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7 minutes ago, calvinnme said:

Yes, people work into their 90s...until they don't, or can't.  They break a hip, or get AMD, or cancer and then chemo brain. You get the drift.  At no place in my post did I imply that anybody robbed anybody. I haven't even seen The Favourite, but it is obvious from her acceptance speech that Colman was the most surprised person in the room. I was guessing that Close would win the 88 Oscar back in the day for her performance in "Dangerous Liasons". To me, hers was the best performance that year that was nominated. But that doesn't mean that anybody "robbed" anybody.

Please do not put words in my mouth. I am trying to lose weight and they are high in calories.

I know...you didn't say Colman robbed Close, but others have been suggesting it. Being surprised about a vote really means the vote didn't go the way someone thought it should. But people who admire Colman were not surprised, since the vote turned out the way they expected. So Oscar surprises/Oscar upsets are a value judgment that tend to imply the wrong person received the award. But the reality is that the people who are surprised or upset by the result are not completely in tune with how the Academy is really thinking.

Deep down Colman couldn't have been too surprised, since she was a nominee and stood an equal chance going into the voting. No one person ever has a lock on the outcome.

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1 minute ago, TopBilled said:

I know...you didn't say Colman robbed Close, but others have been suggesting it. Being surprised about a vote really means the vote didn't go the way someone thought it should. But people who admire Colman were not surprised, since the vote turned out the way they expected. So Oscar surprises/Oscar upsets are a value judgment that tend to imply the wrong person received the award. But the reality is that the people who are surprised or upset by the result are not in tune with the Academy or the voting process.

Deep down Colman couldn't have been too surprised, since she was a nominee and stood an equal chance going into the voting. No one person ever has a lock on the outcome. 

If the world was a fair place, yeah, everybody has an equal chance. But it is not. Some nominees just don't stand a chance because of some bad publicity about somebody associated with the film. Some nominees have a better chance because of a situation that generates sympathy. For example, in the winter/spring of 2001 there was a foiled plot to kidnap Russell Crowe. Some think that this caused him to win Best Actor for Gladiator  instead of Tom Hanks for Castaway. I am one of those people. Who else could play opposite a volleyball for two hours and make it work but Tom Hanks?

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16 minutes ago, calvinnme said:

If the world was a fair place, yeah, everybody has an equal chance. But it is not. Some nominees just don't stand a chance because of some bad publicity about somebody associated with the film. Some nominees have a better chance because of a situation that generates sympathy. For example, in the winter/spring of 2001 there was a foiled plot to kidnap Russell Crowe. Some think that this caused him to win Best Actor for Gladiator  instead of Tom Hanks for Castaway. I am one of those people. Who else could play opposite a volleyball for two hours and make it work but Tom Hanks?

Some people who don't get nominated deserve to be nominated. All the nominees are already in esteemed company. They're already "victorious" on some level. Especially when you consider the hundreds who did not get nominated and conceivably could have been nominated.

None of these people are guaranteed Oscars during their lifetime. In Close's case, she's already earned a lot of awards in her profession. Plus she's literally had decades where she's earned big bucks in Hollywood movies. She's been rewarded and awarded. If she does get an Oscar later, then good for her, it's icing on the cake. But the Academy is not obligated to give her one. And certainly she should not get a consolation Oscar. Nobody should. 

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14 minutes ago, TopBilled said:

Some people who don't get nominated deserve to be nominated. All the nominees are already in esteemed company. They're already "victorious" on some level. Especially when you consider the hundreds who did not get nominated and conceivably could have been nominated.

None of these people are guaranteed Oscars during their lifetime. In Close's case, she's already earned a lot of awards in her profession. Plus she's literally had decades where she's earned big bucks in Hollywood movies. She's been rewarded and awarded. If she does get an Oscar later, then good for her, it's icing on the cake. But the Academy is not obligated to give her one. And certainly she should not get a consolation Oscar. Nobody should.  

Yes, Close has probably got plenty of money, and no, people should not get consolation Oscars, but I have many examples where that is probably exactly what happened, or what tipped the scale just a little bit.  Signing off now.

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I thought the indie hipster art choice would have won best picture but I couldn't even get that right. The only one I got right was "Best Animated Feature" but even a chimp could have guessed that one right.

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On ‎3‎/‎15‎/‎2019 at 11:16 PM, Sgt_Markoff said:

What's to predict? Their foul, fetid, despicable, reeking, pustulence? For cripe's sakes, Oscar-mania is truly the last vestige of the wastrel. Gets my goat. It's like the kind of person who says, "I listen to everything". What? I mean, does anyone watch the Grammys seeking recommendations for quality listening? Does anyone turn to the Emmys for advice on quality intellectual life via their TV?

Donvelvy deserved _(despiter Hollywood for some reason hating the actor?) I don't dsar his Msroff desered s. actor academ,u award!

I mean *Gary cooper got along family with all & had to problem with other actors, most notably *R. Milliand & always stappened him! probablut with Brian as well?  Even Wild Bill Wellman was pleased?

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13 hours ago, TopBilled said:

Some people who don't get nominated deserve to be nominated. All the nominees are already in esteemed company. They're already "victorious" on some level. Especially when you consider the hundreds who did not get nominated and conceivably could have been nominated.

None of these people are guaranteed Oscars during their lifetime. In Close's case, she's already earned a lot of awards in her profession. Plus she's literally had decades where she's earned big bucks in Hollywood movies. She's been rewarded and awarded. If she does get an Oscar later, then good for her, it's icing on the cake. But the Academy is not obligated to give her one. And certainly she should not get a consolation Oscar. Nobody should. 

Top, did you just try & have fun though & PREDICT? NOT YOUR OWN FAVSOF COURSE

 

OF THE TOP 8 MAJOR CATEGORIES-(BEST PICTURE,  ACTOR,  ACTRESS-(oops)-(biggest upset or this year, over Close!?), SORRTING ACTOR: MARSHELA ALI, "Green Book"-(I just had a huge feeling he's wake it so very first & ahgain & was Viggo's superior role in the nice, part drama), SUPPORTING ACTESS: REGINA KING, "If Beael Street Could Talk ^ BIGGEST BLOWOUT! THE OSCAR SEASION *ALFONDO CURON for "Roma"-(NOTE:  For those that may ne recall, not BP victor has already gone on the capture Best Film too. I had BEST DIRECTOR: ALFONSO CUARON-(think it his 6th total td), 2 to possibly 3 for the exchillatying 2013 GRAVITY & now these (3) (AN AIDE MY FAVORITE RELESE IF HE DEACDE, IN *GRAVITY, Even toughie Leonard Maltin give it full 4 star stare rating & I;m not a big sci-fie fan, but this never lets up 7 GRAVITY never stayes of it's wells oce it, at only 92 minutes!  (Lwor

a movie that must of hade the tears if the clown come nominee day is STAN & OLLIE?  Even that indrevible make-

 

 

THANK YOU VERY MUCH!

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6 minutes ago, spence said:

Top, did you just try & have fun though & PREDICT?

Yes, I always try to have fun, Spence! 

I still haven't seen the Stan & Ollie movie you keep raving about!

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14 hours ago, TopBilled said:

Why would it be Close's last nomination? People act into their 90s. I think people need to stop going on like Colman robbed Close. We don't even know if Close came in second with the voters. She could have been third. The result is verified by one of those accounting firms. So the fact is that Close did not get enough votes for the award and Colman did. As for prior nominations, the fact is that Close did not earn enough votes those times either. 

I wouldn't say it's because she's unpopular or being snubbed. The real problem is she's a character actress who is not considered a lead actress, even when she's playing a lead. Rosalind Russell had the same problem. If Roz had allowed herself to be put in the supporting category for PICNIC, she likely would have received an Oscar. Similarly, if Glenn Close changes course and allows herself to be put into the supporting category, even if she's credited above the title, I bet she will snag an Oscar. Her peers will probably vote for her as a supporting (character) actress, not as a lead. 

Glenn Close has earned a ton of awards in other areas of her career. In the meantime, we need to give Olivia Colman her due.

TOOP, don';t you think it's hightime they have a 25th categorery for Best Achhievemt Poster Desine  I mean look at SAUL BASS-(every have anther pictures book of him by the way?  I've got both Bass & George Hersefeld

This man were true artists  AN AISDIDE Some night with tirl as a now debunked Suncast Video-(20yrs or so)  inside they have had a movioe shot of *"THE GREAT: SPENCER RRACY"-(1900-l967) wgich I not lonely have having on my wall-of-fame, but even took photo f i9ts, as you know he did liked having his still shot ticket    SHE WAS AN IMOEDUICLE ANYWAY   No itll ttype TREATEST STORY

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5 minutes ago, spence said:

TOOP, don';t you think it's hightime they have a 25th categorery for Best Achhievemt Poster Desine 

Are you talking about movie posters?

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