I think it has something to do with supply and demand --
First, TCM relies on not just Warner Bros. (Warner Bros., RKO, pre-1986 MGM) to supply films for the channel but also Columbia, Universal, MGM/UA, Fox, Paramount and others. It would be up to them to also supply TCM with HD transfers of their films for TCM to showcase on a HD channel. Would they charge TCM more to carry SD and HD versions of films on two separate non-ad supported channels? That is up to TCM to hammer out, but would there be enough HD-supported titles to fill a new classic movie channel?
Second, is there enough HDTV penetration in the market to warrant this channel yet? I would hope so. I have been looking at making the HDTV jump for a while, but my cable system (COX) only offers a handful (at best) of HD channels (ESPN, Universal HD, Discovery HD, MTV HD, INHD, TNT HD, HBO HD, Showtime HD, plus only my local PBS, CBS and NBC affiliates in HD) - not much for me to view on a pricey new tv.
So I'm guessing we will eventually see a TCM HD channel, but I don't think it will be for another couple of years, especially when you think that Time-Warner will probably make TBS, CNN, Headline News, Cinemax and Cartoon Network in HD before TCM.
Just my 2 cents.