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Everything posted by Sukhov

  1. If you read Turchin’s book Secular Cycles, you learn that social stress on this scale is a recipe for civil disorder up to the level of civil war. American public opinion agrees. An opinion poll last year showed that the average US voter thought their country was two thirds of its way to a new civil war.The USA has been through two civil wars: the first between loyalists and supporters of independence, the second between the North and the Slave Power. What would be the nature of the third?
  2. https://paulcockshott.wordpress.com/2020/06/18/the-us-crisis/ DEMOCRACY The US crisis Date: June 18, 2020Author: Paul Cockshott22 Comments Back in 2010 the materialist historian Turchin predicted in an article in Nature that 2020 would see a major outbreak of social disorder in the USA. His work distinguished between the long term stress that a society experiences and short term triggers. The long term stress predisposes a state to social breakdown, riot, insurrection or civil war. Once the society is in a highly stressed state, then some otherwise common event – the killing of an innocent man by the police in this case – can trigger the breakdown. What was remarkable about Turchin is that he took historical materialist ideas, dressed in a language to make them acceptable to US academia, and gave them precise quantitative numerical form. He gave social stress a formula. Quoting from a recent article of his the formula is: 1 𝛹 = MMP × EMP × SFD Here MMP, or Mass Mobilization Potential, captures the effect of growing popular immiseration, EMP, or Elite Mobilization Potential, quantifies intra-elite competition and conflict, and SFD, or State Fiscal Distress, measures the weakening of the state.
  3. https://www.vaccines.gov/basics/safety#:~:text=Every licensed and recommended vaccine,Disease Control and Prevention
  4. Moscow Does Not Believe in Tears (1980)
  5. Now would be a good year to go as one of these guys.
  6. LOL. He's furious because the RLM fans spammed his Twitter telling him to be interviewed on their show so he blocked them. He said he would take $500 to unblock them and a million dollars to be on their show.
  7. https://medium.com/@WilliamShatner/the-toxic-empires-of-egoligarchies-e4b38e697726 The Toxic Empires of Egoligarchies William Shatner Follow Jul 27 · 15 min read Don’t roll your eyes just yet. This isn’t about politcs or social justice warrior type issues. Well, I suppose you could apply it to both those topics but this is more about lessons of hubris and bruised egos gone bad within the world of Social Media. I know what you are thinking; here’s Bill Shatner the King of Egos (if you listen to some of my former castmates) talking about hubris. 🙄He has a nerve. 😤 Maybe so but I also have a point to make here on toxicity of House of Card Oligarchs. The other point I will make upfront is that what follows is my own viewpoints and my side of things. I know there are two sides to every story but I’m going to try to be fair in how I present my side though I know it will be biased toward me. I have a history of speaking my mind online. I’m heading into my ninth decade alive and I’ve seen a lot of things but enough is enough with some of this bad behavior of people under the guise of a cause. (And this is where you can begin to apply it to whatever you want- politics, social justice, current events, etc… I’m not going to go there — you can if you want.) People are no longer seeing the word “social” as anything more than a chance to debase and wallop people. What they think their eventual prize is; I do not have a clue. It’s what they do, however. Social Media platforms seem to be the latest primordial soup recipe that breeds these toxic types online. Fame and Celebrity have wonderful perks and dire drawbacks. You get special treatment and first available tables at restaurants at times but everyone wants to meet you, everyone wants to get a selfie with you and, in the case of the toxic types, everyone wants to have a go at you.
  8. https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2020/07/27/money-in-pursuit-of-hopelessness-the-gold-price-has-hit-an-all-time-high/ Money in pursuit of hopelessness: the gold price has hit an all time high Posted on July 27 2020 The FT has a headline, just out: As they note: A series of thoughts inevitably follow. The first is that this is the clearest possible indication that there is a savings glut in the world. Second, it strongly implies that this savings glut is most extreme amongst the best off, who are those who typically save using gold. Third, it also very clearly suggests that they do not think that conventional savings media, such as property and shares, have anything to offer them at present. And they may be right: coronavirus is undermining the property market and many companies appear bankrupt of ideas, if not actually bankrupt. Fourth, this indicates the conservative nature of most wealth ownership. There is, of course, no productive value to gold, but the owners of this wealth do not care about that. What is of concern to them is the preservation of their status, indicated by wealth, and that is what motivates this decision. Fifth, this does very clearly indicate a capacity to tax wealth more: if the wealthy cannot put their wealth to productive use then they might as well pay tax with it. Sixth, also be worried about the spillovers. When gold hits peak values other markets being to fall. When the stock market falls the banking, life assurance and pension sectors may all be in trouble. Peak gold prices are never a sign that things are going well. Seventh, worry. That is the right reaction.
  9. Mein Kampf is a political manifesto calling for the extermination of people and Gone With the Wind is a movie. Not even comparable.
  10. There would be more backlash on these boards if they kept the movie off than if they played it. It is her most famous role.
  11. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/07/ilargi-what-default-where-dollar.html Ilargi: What? Default? Where? Dollar? Posted on July 27, 2020 by Yves Smith Yves here. To add to Ilargi’s discussion on the long-standing, premature predictions of the death of the dollar: 1. If you look at not-much longer periods (pre-Brexit) the dollar was much weaker against the pound and the euro. So a modest retrace is noise. 2. The US cannot involuntarily default in its own currency. It can create too much inflation. With the massive deflationary impact of Covid-19, that’s not an imminent risk. 3. Being the reserve currency requires getting a lot of currency into foreign trade partners’ hands. That means running trade deficits, as in exporting jobs. China is mercantilist, and sees the point of trade as running a surplus, which is tantamount to importing jobs. So China is not willing to do what it would have to do to displace the dollar.
  12. I had to look up if that was a real place. Bug Tussle got its name after an early settler climbed a nearby mountain and said the people below looked like "bugs tussling".[1
  13. RIP Now the Golden era of Hollywood is a time that is gone with the wind.
  14. My favorite Henry VIII - Charles Laughton.
  15. Iirc in the original play she doesn't even get with him at all and there isn't even much romance between them. The film would have been better that way.
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