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Too Early for Oscar Guessing


LawrenceA
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First off, I know Oscars don't matter, they suck, it's all stupid garbage, blah blah blah. If you feel the need to restate these or similar chestnuts, go ahead, I've heard 'em all, and expect I'll hear 'em again.

 

But for anyone else interested in meaningless, academic debate and blind-eyed guessing games, I thought I'd start a thread to try and estimate those films soon to be released that will be the next Oscar winners and nominees. I just received the latest EW magazine, and it's the Fall Movie Preview issue, detailing the movie releases from September through December, prime Oscar-bait territory. I'll list several that seem like likely nominees.

 

SEPTEMBER

 

The Light Between Oceans - A dramatic romance starring last year's Supporting Actress winner, Alicia Vikander, along with Michael Fassbender and Rachel Weisz. It's a period piece (1920's), and looks to be a weepie. 

 

Deepwater Horizon - Mark Wahlberg, Kate Hudson, and Kurt Russell star in this true story tale about the Gulf of Mexico disaster.

 

Bridget Jones's Baby - Probably not an Oscar flick, but there's a tiny chance.

 

Snowden - Oliver Stone's take on the controversial whistle-blower, starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt.

 

Sully - Clint Eastwood directs Tom Hanks in yet another true story, about the "Miracle On the Hudson", and its aftermath.

 

Queen of Katwe - Lupita Nyong'o and David Oyelowo star in Mira Nair's true story about an Ugandan chess prodigy.

 

Denial - Rachel Weisz again, starring in a true-story tale about a trial against a Holocaust denier (Timothy Spall).

 

Popcorn fare includes The Magnificent Seven remake, a Blair Witch sequel, and Tim Burton book adaptation Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children.

 

 

OCTOBER

 

The Birth of a Nation - Nate Parker stars in and directed this true-story depiction of Nat Turner's slave revolt in 1831. This looks like the most likely Oscar flick of the season.

 

American Pastoral -  Ewan McGregor directs and stars in this adaptation of Philip Roth's book. Also with Jennifer Connelly and Dakota Fanning. Another period piece (1960's).

 

The Girl On the Train - Emily Blunt stars in this adaptation of the recent bestseller about a woman who becomes obsessed with the lives of people she sees during her daily commute.

 

Popcorn fare includes A Monster Calls (looks like another The BFG), The Accountant (Ben Affleck action thriller), Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (Tom Cruise action thriller), and Inferno (Tom Hanks action thriller).

 

NOVEMBER

 

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - Ang Lee directs this Iraq war story, starring Joe Alwyn, Vin Diesel and Kristen Stewart.

 

Arrival - Cerebral sci-fi starring Amy Adams and Jeremy Renner.

 

Hacksaw Ridge - Andrew Garfield stars in this true-story about a medic during the Battle of Okinawa in WW2. Director Mel Gibson most likely scuttles any Oscar chances.

 

Allied - Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard star in this WW2-era romance, said to be an old-fashioned throwback to classic films. From director Robert Zemeckis.

 

Nocturnal Animals - The new one from Tom Ford (A Single Man), this stars Amy Adams, Jake Gyllenhaal and Michael Shannon. The plot is complicated, involving stories within stories, but it should look nice, if nothing else.

 

Rules Don't Apply - Warren Beatty's long gestating Howard Hughes film.

 

Loving - Ruth Negga and Joel Edgerton star in the true-life story of the Supreme Court case that legalized mixed-race marriage in the US.

 

Manchester By the Sea - Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams star in Kenneth Lonergan's new film, a story of damaged people finding love.

 

Popcorn fare includes Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (set in the Harry Potter universe, but with all-new characters), Dr. Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch stars as the latest Marvel superhero to grace the screen), and Bad Santa 2, because it was time.

 

 

DECEMBER

 

Passengers - I'm not sure if this will be popcorn fare, Oscar bait, both or neither. Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence star in this Sci-fi romance that looks more character driven than lasers and aliens.

 

The Founder - Michael Keaton stars as McDonald's executive Ray Crock.

 

Miss Sloane - Jessica Chastain and Mark Strong star in this take on the gun control debate. Directed by John Madden.

 

Collateral Beauty - Will Smith, Helen Mirren and Edward Norton star in this tale "overcoming personal tragedy". Sounds like Oscar bait to me!

 

Fences - Denzel Washington directs this film adaptation of the prize-winning stage triumph.

 

La La Land - A Musical! Starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone.

 

Gold - Matthew McConaughey goes ugly (balding hair, 40 lbs overweight) about a gold prospector in Indonesia.

 

Patriots Day - Mark Wahlberg, J.K. Simmons and John Goodman as Boston cops dealing with the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombing.

 

Popcorn fare includes Rogue One: A Star Wars Tale (the first standalone film), and Assassin's Creed starring Michael Fassbender in an adaptation of the hit videogame series.

 

 

Okay, there are the most likely Oscar-bait films. I've omitted animated films, as there are other posters that can speak more knowledgeably on those, and the smattering of Foreign releases, like new films from Spain's Pedro Almodovar and South Korea's Park Chan-wook. Do any of these stand out as possible notables to you? How many sound like complete garbage? 

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Okay, there are the most likely Oscar-bait films. I've omitted animated films, as there are other posters that can speak more knowledgeably on those, and the smattering of Foreign releases, like new films from Spain's Pedro Almodovar and South Korea's Park Chan-wook. Do any of these stand out as possible notables to you? How many sound like complete garbage? 

 

 

Well--having seen a lot of the buzz-fan Fantasy-Baseball, which now bleeds its way into the post-04 nominations (now that the voters don't have time to think up their own anymore)--the "Complete garbage" are usually those that fall into the categories of:

 

1) X Won, Thus So Must Y:  Oliver Stone's Snowden and Quentin Tarantino's Hateful 8 are the titles to watch!

 

2) Superstition, or We Don't Know WHY X Won, Thus So Must Y:  "Birth of a Nation" looks just like "12 Years a Slave", so it's sure to win!  And "Into the Woods" and "Les Miserables" are musicals that came out in December, just like Chicago!

 

3) Actor/Director Pedigree Dog Shows:  Look, (Spielberg/Scorsese) is working with (Tom Hanks/Leo DiCaprio) again!  Safe bet that's going to be the major multi-sweep!

 

4) Why Do We Still Believe the Sycophantic Golden Globes Are Real Awards?:  A surprise Picture and Actress nomination for Florence Foster Jenkins!  The Globes have given us the upset of the Oscars!

 

5) Why is the NBOR Still Grudgingly Paranoid Toward Mainstream Films, When No One's Actually Nominated a Wide-Release Studio Film Since 2010?:  A major Critics' Circle consensus for Ang Lee's latest!

 

6) It's the One I've Heard Of, Six Months Ahead!  Keep your eye on the critical reception for The Founder and Patriot's Day!

 

:lol:

 

IOW, yes.  It's too soon.  Anything before the movies actually come out is "too soon".

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Okay, thanks. At least you weren't a smug, condescending ******* about it. ;)

 

 

Sorry, just that I KNOW where these discussions are heading...In detail.  Preventative medicine.   :)

 

And the fact that our new baseball-guessing Golden Globes worship may have singlehandedly caused "Inside Out" to lose its rightful Picture nomination last year is a crime that cannot be avenged.

 

(No, seriously:  Part of the reason we had eight-ten nominations since '08 is a committee rule change that allows Picture votes for animated pictures--After mounting failure in its bid to make room for more mainstream films, the Academy was going to retire the rule last year, but kept it open at the last minute for one very, very specific reason...)

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Gold - Matthew McConaughey goes ugly (balding hair, 40 lbs overweight) about a gold prospector in Indonesia.


 


I have to smile about this one. This is today's version of method acting, done to win Oscars (and for no other reason). But what if it's still a bad performance in a mediocre film? Will he be able to fool industry peers that because he allowed himself to go without hair and decided to add weight, this is authentic acting?


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We should be hearing soon from the Academy's Board of Governors about honorees for special Oscars. Does anyone have any favorites?

 

I would like to see the honorees include (in order of preference):

 

ACTORS:

 

pic110.png

Day in "Midnight Lace" (1960)

 

1. Doris Day -- I'm not going to hold my breath that this great star -- who excelled in musicals, comedies AND dramas -- will agree to be honored by the Academy. But she deserves the top spot. Her only Oscar nomination was for her performance in "Pillow Talk" (1960).

 

2. Max von Sydow -- The great Swedish star and Ingmar Bergman collaborator -- who has played both Christ and the devil -- has been nominated twice for Oscars. He received a 1988 Best Actor nomination for his work as the title character in Bille August's Danish-Swedish drama "Pelle the Conqueror." Almost 25 years later, he received a Best Supporting Actor nomination for his performance as a mute grandfather in Stephen Daldry's 2012 drama "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close." An honorary Oscar for the 87-year-old Von Sydow might double his pleasure in 2016. He's the favorite to win a Primetime Emmy Award as Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series for his appearances as the Three-Eyed Raven in "Game of Thrones."

 

My favorite Von Sydow performance? He played a sinister but ethical hitman in "Three Days of the Condor" (1975):

 

 

 

 

3-5. Jeanne Moreau/ Leslie Caron/ Catherine Deneuve -- France has produced a plethora of noteworthy actresses (La Bardot always will be my favorite). But only three have won Oscars for acting -- Simone Signoret (a 1959 Best Actress winner for "Room at the Top"), Juliette Binoche (the 1996 Best Supporting Actress winner for "The English Patient") and Marion Cotillard (who won 2007 Best Actress honors for her portrayal of singer Edith Piaf in "La vie en rose"). Moreau and Caron have been film icons since the 1950s, while Deneuve made an impressive splash in the decade of the 1960s. Like Day, they've all excelled in musicals, comedies and dramas. My No. 1 preference is the 88-year-old Moreau. She was an important figure during the French New Wave era -- and she's the only one who's never been nominated for an Oscar. 

 

58464430_p.jpg

Deneuve and Moreau with Signoret

 

image3248986x.jpg

Caron won a 2007 Guest Actress Primetime Emmy for "Law and Order: SVU"

 

 

FILMMAKER: Sir Ridley Scott

 

ridley_scott_02.jpg

 

At the age of 78, Scott is still an active filmmaker (his 2015 picture "The Martian" was a big box-office hit and an Oscar nominee for Best Picture). But he's never won an Academy Award, despite such achievements as "Gladiator" (the 2000 Best Picture winner), "Blade Runner" (1982), "Alien" (1979), "Thelma & Louise" (1991), "Black Hawk Down" (2001) and "American Gangster" (2007). Let's hope this is the year he gets his due, although there's still a chance he could win a competitive Oscar someday soon.

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First off, I know Oscars don't matter, they suck, it's all stupid garbage, blah blah blah. If you feel the need to restate these or similar chestnuts, go ahead, I've heard 'em all, and expect I'll hear 'em again.

 

But for anyone else interested in meaningless, academic debate and blind-eyed guessing games, I thought I'd start a thread to try and estimate those films soon to be released that will be the next Oscar winners and nominees. I just received the latest EW magazine, and it's the Fall Movie Preview issue, detailing the movie releases from September through December, prime Oscar-bait territory. I'll list several that seem like likely nominees.

 

SEPTEMBER

 

The Light Between Oceans - A dramatic romance starring last year's Supporting Actress winner, Alicia Vikander, along with Michael Fassbender and Rachel Weisz. It's a period piece (1920's), and looks to be a weepie. 

 

Deepwater Horizon - Mark Wahlberg, Kate Hudson, and Kurt Russell star in this true story tale about the Gulf of Mexico disaster.

 

Bridget Jones's Baby - Probably not an Oscar flick, but there's a tiny chance.

 

Snowden - Oliver Stone's take on the controversial whistle-blower, starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt.

 

Sully - Clint Eastwood directs Tom Hanks in yet another true story, about the "Miracle On the Hudson", and its aftermath.

 

Queen of Katwe - Lupita Nyong'o and David Oyelowo star in Mira Nair's true story about an Ugandan chess prodigy.

 

Denial - Rachel Weisz again, starring in a true-story tale about a trial against a Holocaust denier (Timothy Spall).

 

Popcorn fare includes The Magnificent Seven remake, a Blair Witch sequel, and Tim Burton book adaptation Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children.

 

 

OCTOBER

 

The Birth of a Nation - Nate Parker stars in and directed this true-story depiction of Nat Turner's slave revolt in 1831. This looks like the most likely Oscar flick of the season.

 

American Pastoral -  Ewan McGregor directs and stars in this adaptation of Philip Roth's book. Also with Jennifer Connelly and Dakota Fanning. Another period piece (1960's).

 

The Girl On the Train - Emily Blunt stars in this adaptation of the recent bestseller about a woman who becomes obsessed with the lives of people she sees during her daily commute.

 

Popcorn fare includes A Monster Calls (looks like another The BFG), The Accountant (Ben Affleck action thriller), Jack Reacher: Never Go Back (Tom Cruise action thriller), and Inferno (Tom Hanks action thriller).

 

NOVEMBER

 

Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk - Ang Lee directs this Iraq war story, starring Joe Alwyn, Vin Diesel and Kristen Stewart.

 

Arrival - Cerebral sci-fi starring Amy Adams and Jeremy Renner.

 

Hacksaw Ridge - Andrew Garfield stars in this true-story about a medic during the Battle of Okinawa in WW2. Director Mel Gibson most likely scuttles any Oscar chances.

 

Allied - Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard star in this WW2-era romance, said to be an old-fashioned throwback to classic films. From director Robert Zemeckis.

 

Nocturnal Animals - The new one from Tom Ford (A Single Man), this stars Amy Adams, Jake Gyllenhaal and Michael Shannon. The plot is complicated, involving stories within stories, but it should look nice, if nothing else.

 

Rules Don't Apply - Warren Beatty's long gestating Howard Hughes film.

 

Loving - Ruth Negga and Joel Edgerton star in the true-life story of the Supreme Court case that legalized mixed-race marriage in the US.

 

Manchester By the Sea - Casey Affleck and Michelle Williams star in Kenneth Lonergan's new film, a story of damaged people finding love.

 

Popcorn fare includes Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (set in the Harry Potter universe, but with all-new characters), Dr. Strange (Benedict Cumberbatch stars as the latest Marvel superhero to grace the screen), and Bad Santa 2, because it was time.

 

 

DECEMBER

 

Passengers - I'm not sure if this will be popcorn fare, Oscar bait, both or neither. Chris Pratt and Jennifer Lawrence star in this Sci-fi romance that looks more character driven than lasers and aliens.

 

The Founder - Michael Keaton stars as McDonald's executive Ray Crock.

 

Miss Sloane - Jessica Chastain and Mark Strong star in this take on the gun control debate. Directed by John Madden.

 

Collateral Beauty - Will Smith, Helen Mirren and Edward Norton star in this tale "overcoming personal tragedy". Sounds like Oscar bait to me!

 

Fences - Denzel Washington directs this film adaptation of the prize-winning stage triumph.

 

La La Land - A Musical! Starring Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone.

 

Gold - Matthew McConaughey goes ugly (balding hair, 40 lbs overweight) about a gold prospector in Indonesia.

 

Patriots Day - Mark Wahlberg, J.K. Simmons and John Goodman as Boston cops dealing with the aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombing.

 

Popcorn fare includes Rogue One: A Star Wars Tale (the first standalone film), and Assassin's Creed starring Michael Fassbender in an adaptation of the hit videogame series.

 

 

Okay, there are the most likely Oscar-bait films. I've omitted animated films, as there are other posters that can speak more knowledgeably on those, and the smattering of Foreign releases, like new films from Spain's Pedro Almodovar and South Korea's Park Chan-wook. Do any of these stand out as possible notables to you? How many sound like complete garbage? 

Patriots Day should be a winer!

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Another Oscar possibility is Martin Scorsese's Silence. Early word is that it's very good. It's a period piece about three Jesuit priests trekking across 17th century Japan. Stars Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver, and Liam Neeson are all said to be excellent, as well.

 

The only issue is that it has yet to secure a definitive release date.

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Another Oscar possibility is Martin Scorsese's Silence. Early word is that it's very good. It's a period piece about three Jesuit priests trekking across 17th century Japan. Stars Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver, and Liam Neeson are all said to be excellent, as well.

 

The only issue is that it has yet to secure a definitive release date.

Well, if it's not released until 2017, then it can qualify next year.

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I will be very presumptuously early by suggesting: The Shape of Water.

 

I had thought it was scheduled for release in: 2016 but: imdb.com lists it now for release in: 2017.

 

It is directed by: Guillermo del Toro who co-wrote it also. I feel that this bodes quite well as its genesis and certain thematic elements parallel: Pan's Labyrinth (2006) which won: Oscars and was nominated for many other awards.

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I look forward to anything Del Toro makes, although I like his Spanish language films better than his English language ones. This is the first I've heard of The Shape of Water. Del Toro is notorious for announcing projects and doing pre-production on multiple films, only to have them delayed or put into turnaround. So I hope this gets made, and not shelved like his previously announced At the Mountains of Madness, Frankenstein, Justice League Dark, Pinocchio etc etc.

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I'm a fan of all 3 that you listed, JamesStewartFan, but they've all won competitive Oscars in the past (Williams has 5 wins!), and I like to see those who never won before get the lifetime awards.

 

 

Like Spielberg, Paul Newman and Peter O'Toole's lifetime achievements, they usually do--

And as for awards, isn't it one Director/Artist achievement, one Actor achievement, and one Humanitarian award (which, for some inscrutable reason Jeffrey Katzenberg won one year, so they must know something the rest of us don't...)?

 

When Hal Needham and Blake Edwards won the directorial Lifetime achievements a couple years ago, we know it's clearly more about the Lifetime than the Achievement.

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I'm a fan of all 3 that you listed, JamesStewartFan, but they've all won competitive Oscars in the past (Williams has 5 wins!), and I like to see those who never won before get the lifetime awards.

What about Robert Duvall? He's won as many Oscars as Sidney Poitier, Jimmy Stewart, Paul Newman, Robert Redford, and Henry Fonda and they all received honorary Oscars. And Gary Cooper won two Oscars. Would he be disqualified in your view?

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What about Robert Duvall? He's won as many Oscars as Sidney Poitier, Jimmy Stewart, Paul Newman, Robert Redford, and Henry Fonda and they all received honorary Oscars. And Gary Cooper won two Oscars. Would he be disqualified in your view?

 

Newman won his Honorary before his competitive win. The same for Fonda. Redford was awarded for his Sundance work, as well as his screen work, which puts him in a separate category, imo. Cooper had won twice, like you said, so I would not have given him a third, honorary award. I understand Poitier's, due to his cultural and social impact, beyond just his excellent body of work. I don't think I would have given Stewart another one, although he won his competitive Oscar for the wrong film.

 

I still say I would rather have people who have never won receive the honorary awards. But that's just my opinion.

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When Hal Needham and Blake Edwards won the directorial Lifetime achievements a couple years ago, we know it's clearly more about the Lifetime than the Achievement.

 

Needham's honorary nod was a bone thrown to the stuntman's union, who have been trying to get a Stunt Oscar on the ballot for years. Needham's work as a stuntman and stunt coordinator are Oscar-worthy, even if most of his directorial efforts aren't exactly awards-bait.

 

Katzenberg's was a bit dubious, wasn't it? He's done important work, but he's not as long in the tooth as they usually are. I wondered when I heard about it, if he was ill or something. Apparently not.

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Cooper had won twice, like you said, so I would not have given him a third, honorary award. 

 

Cooper's honorary Oscar was accepted by Stewart weeks before Cooper died of cancer in May 1961. I'm sure that many people in the industry knew that he was seriously ill, although the general public did not.

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Cooper's honorary Oscar was accepted by Stewart weeks before Cooper died of cancer. I'm sure a lot of people in the industry knew that he was seriously ill, although the general public did not.

 

Yeah, I guess it would be tough to begrudge a dying man his accolades.

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Katzenberg's was a bit dubious, wasn't it? He's done important work, but he's not as long in the tooth as they usually are. I wondered when I heard about it, if he was ill or something. Apparently not.

 

 

He's done a lot of industry charity work for the animator community (oh, you should go on the Animator's union blog, and hear the diehard faction still chipping away and trying to Fox News spin-doctor every WDFA and Pixar animated as a "flop" and "studio-crushing disaster" in the hopes that Disney will someday reconsider their idea of hiring taskmaster John Lasseter in favor of that nice, easygoing studio head Katzenberg...At least, that's what they were saying a while ago, don't know if they've been saying it lately.)

But in general terms, "Humanitarian" he is most demonstrably not.

 

Which does make it more of a union push for show, which, yes, probably would explain the Hal Needham thing.

I'd been in such a 70's haze lately, I'd actually been curious to go back and look at the two Cannonball Run movies...Yes, they're still bad (watching all the desert-highway road-swerving in It's a Madx4 World, I was reminded of Roger Ebert's famous comment on Needham's Cannonballs), but I guess you can appreciate the technical effort by entire stunt communities--Like Joe Queenan pointed out, you don't see people putting that much hard work and effort into bad comedies this generation...

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Yeah, I guess it would be tough to begrudge a dying man his accolades.

 

There is an argument for honorary Oscars going to competitive Academy Award winners just based on their bodies of work. Meryl Streep received her second Oscar in 1983 -- and then went winless for almost 30 years before picking up a third award. Her career has been so stellar, she'd easily be considered worthy of an honorary award someday.

 

1361572693_meryl-streep-article.jpg

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