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I don't think Irma has cable, so she might not know where she's supposed to go according to the "spagetti" models.   You gotta figure that if these guys were that reliable at ANY predictions, they'd all be retired now living off their lottery winnings.

 

 

Sepiatone

 

How many models have you worked on?   I have worked on over 20.   Yea,  some were inaccurate,  resulting in way to many false positives,  but others had enough accuracy to be useful.  That is the key,  that a model is useful.   

 

Oh,  and in our spare time we used the company's powerful computers and developed stock market prediction models.   Yea, these were not very accurate OR useful,  but that is because the input factors were not reliable predictors.    As you note if they were useful I would have purchased TCM and ensured no Elvis movies were ever shown again.    :lol:

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45]6Mc_OzCQ_bigger.jpgMarlow SternVerified account @MarlowNYC

 

 

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Colbert goes in on Trump's Hurricane Harvey response: "He's been closer to a flood in a Russian hotel room" http://www.thedailybeast.com/colbert-rips-t****-harvey-response-hes-been-closer-to-a-flood-in-a-russian-hotel-room

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I was watching Trump trying to help out with the hurricane relief on Saturday.

 

He was passing out food at a hurricane shelter. As he was finished and started to go, he told everybody: " Have a good time." As if he was leaving a cocktail party or a New York reception. And he's talking to some people who have lost everything they had in the world. And maybe even their jobs too.

 

It's not that trump just doesn't have empathy-- it's like he has no idea how average people live.

 

And that's the next example. He tries to be really equalitarian and help to load up a pickup track for Hurricane Relief.

 

Well trump gets the packages and hands them to the driver in the cab. The driver has to tell him that you load a pickup truck in the back. LOL

 

I can remember when I was three or four years-old and my dad used to load junk he wanted to throw away in his old 48 Ford pickup truck. Then we would drive

to the city dump and he would throw the stuff away.

 

I was 3 or 4 years old and I knew how you were supposed to load a pickup truck.

 

But after all Trump has never been a middle-class Midwesterner or ever lived like a normal, average person in his entire life.

 

 

That's why he has no empathy or understanding about people like us.

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I was watching Trump trying to help out with the hurricane relief on Saturday.

 

He was passing out food at a hurricane shelter. As he was finished and started to go, he told everybody: " Have a good time." As if he was leaving a cocktail party or a New York reception. And he's talking to some people who have lost everything they had in the world. And maybe even their jobs too.

 

It's not that trump just doesn't have empathy-- it's like he has no idea how average people live.

 

And that's the next example. He tries to be really equalitarian and help to load up a pickup track for Hurricane Relief.

 

Well trump gets the packages and hands them to the driver in the cab. The driver has to tell him that you load a pickup truck in the back. LOL

 

I can remember when I was three or four years-old and my dad used to load junk he wanted to throw away in his old 48 Ford pickup truck. Then we would drive

to the city dump and he would throw the stuff away.

 

I was 3 or 4 years old and I knew how you were supposed to load a pickup truck.

 

But after all Trump has never been a middle-class Midwesterner or ever lived like a normal, average person in his entire life.

 

 

That's why he has no empathy or understanding about people like us.

Hell.  We never even HAD a pick-up truck.  But I damn well knew you loaded them in the back at that age too.  ;)

 

Anyway-----

 

Spent the last few days furiously( due to lacking a phone number) e-mailing an old friend now living in Florida to ask if he's prepared  or getting set to evacuate or what.  He finally got back with me and informed me that so far, predictions are that it's SOUTH Florida that faces the biggest threat, and he lives in North Central Florida( Ocala) and that usually hurricanes just make the weather in his parts more inclement than usual.  Nothing he can't handle.

 

For years, it's been an accepted concept that people up in the cold, wintery states move down to Florida, or out west to California upon retirement.  I don't know.....personally, I might not mind it too  much, but it would only take the 1st hurricane or earthquake to move me quickly back to the Great Lake state!  ;)

 

 

Sepiatone

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Spent the last few days furiously( due to lacking a phone number) e-mailing an old friend now living in Florida to ask if he's prepared  or getting set to evacuate or what.  He finally got back with me and informed me that so far, predictions are that it's SOUTH Florida that faces the biggest threat, and he lives in North Central Florida( Ocala) and that usually hurricanes just make the weather in his parts more inclement than usual.  Nothing he can't handle.

 

For years, it's been an accepted concept that people up in the cold, wintery states move down to Florida, or out west to California upon retirement.  I don't know.....personally, I might not mind it too  much, but it would only take the 1st hurricane or earthquake to move me quickly back to the Great Lake state!  

 

Your friend should be OK. As long as he's in an adequate shelter (in other words, not in a mobile home in an open field), he should be fine. As he said, we usually get a lot of rain, but not much of the wind damage. I've lived in North Central Florida most of my life (I'm about an hour north of Ocala), and through multiple storms, and the only real worries have been flooding in low-lying areas (which surprisingly isn't too much around here), and damage from falling trees. 

 

That being said, they are really beating the fear drums in the media, and every store around here is bare after the runs on food and water. 

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florida they keep saying is the likely target and they also say depends on exactly when it turns north.

 

1. florida

 

2. mid-atlantic

 

3. northeast

 

 

"looks like hiroshima draws the short straw, tib." -above and beyond

 

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she's getting stronger...and where did jose come from? :huh:  :lol:

 

And don't forget Katia, which just formed in the lower Gulf and presently, poses little threat to the U.S.  The east coast of Mexico could be under the gun though.

 

I know hurricane season runs between June and November, but it seems like most of the powerful and devastating storms hit between late August to mid-October.

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Hell.  We never even HAD a pick-up truck.  But I damn well knew you loaded them in the back at that age too.  ;)

 

Anyway-----

 

Spent the last few days furiously( due to lacking a phone number) e-mailing an old friend now living in Florida to ask if he's prepared  or getting set to evacuate or what.  He finally got back with me and informed me that so far, predictions are that it's SOUTH Florida that faces the biggest threat, and he lives in North Central Florida( Ocala) and that usually hurricanes just make the weather in his parts more inclement than usual.  Nothing he can't handle.

 

For years, it's been an accepted concept that people up in the cold, wintery states move down to Florida, or out west to California upon retirement.  I don't know.....personally, I might not mind it too  much, but it would only take the 1st hurricane or earthquake to move me quickly back to the Great Lake state!  ;)

 

 

Sepiatone

 

My niece and her family live in the northern edge of Palm Beach County.  They had planned to go stay with friends in the Atlanta area, but now have decided to ride out Irma.  Deciding factor was the inability to find gasoline for the drive up to Georgia.

 

A couple of weeks ago, I was reading an article about retirees and where they get more bang for their bucks.  It ranked the states based on money-centric issues like cost of living and overall taxes, but it also factored in a state's overall crime rate, access to good medical facilities, and whether or not a state had good public transportation or 'walker-friendly' places as older people tend to drive less for groceries, dining options, or entertainment.  The article also said efficiency in administering Medicare payments or helping enrollees sign up for the program.  I did not see the ranking for each and every state, but the best 5 and worst 5 were named.  A map of the U.S. showed the states in various colors.  Pale green states were rated the best, with dark green the worst, and various shades of green for those places that fell in between the extremes.

 

Best places to retire and get more for your money?  1. Delaware  2. Maryland  3. Michigan  4. Virginia  5. Indiana

 

Worst places for retirees and their dough?  1. Hawaii  2. Vermont  3. Minnesota  4. Washington  5. New Mexico

 

My sister has long talked about retiring to Arkansas, but in combining money with quality of life, "The Land of Opportunity" ranked lower than Illinois, Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Tennessee.  Missouri was in the same category as Arkansas, and North Dakota was worse than South Dakota or Kansas.  Overall, the SE United States was still the best region, but there are pockets of good places to retire throughout the country, and certainly good or bad places to be within each state, as well, regardless of that state's ranking.

 

Personally, weather is not a factor for where I'd want to be.  Heck, I love winter.  The colder air makes me feel alive!  Of course, I'm not prone to receiving lake-effect snows that would cause me to haul my carcass up a ladder to shovel excess snow off my roof, lest it collapse.

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Well, Midwestan, based on your info it looks like I was wise to stay here in MI.  You don't get any "lake effect" snow?  I'm assuming you're not in the Chicago area of Ill.  The company I shot weddings for is located in Chicago, and the owner lived in Chicago proper.  told me the winters were so brutal due to "lake effect" snow off lake Michigan that he was considering moviing to MOROCCO!  :D

 

He was joking of course, but I got his point.

 

And I might bet that you too, point your car's wiper blades straight out when snow is predicted for overnight ?  ;)

 

 

Sepiatone

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There is no WRATH in Irma.

 

There is no vengeful indignation, self-righteous anger, revenge.

 

Irma is just a hurricane, doing what hurricanes do.

 

This was a b___h named Irma and there was vengeful indignation, justifiable anger, revenge among her victims / families.  Eventually felt the WRATH of the courts.

 

At least  hurricane Irma is not EVIL! (time will tell if it becomes a real b____h)

 

Irma_Grese.jpg

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The thing that really ticks me off about all these unusually powerful and frequent hurricanes is that they're somehow created by those "climate change" charlatans trying to make their "global warming" scam look legitimate.   :rolleyes:

 

 

Sepiatone

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Well, Midwestan, based on your info it looks like I was wise to stay here in MI.  You don't get any "lake effect" snow?  I'm assuming you're not in the Chicago area of Ill.  The company I shot weddings for is located in Chicago, and the owner lived in Chicago proper.  told me the winters were so brutal due to "lake effect" snow off lake Michigan that he was considering moviing to MOROCCO!  :D

 

He was joking of course, but I got his point.

 

And I might bet that you too, point your car's wiper blades straight out when snow is predicted for overnight ?  ;)

 

 

Sepiatone

 

Actually, I'm closer to St. Louis than Chicago.  Fortunately, I've got a garage for my car, so I don't have to worry too much about my wiper blades getting buried or iced over by an overnight surprise!  I do live less than half a mile from a municipal lake.  I'd always joke with people I worked with that my proximity to the lake made me susceptible to 'lake effect' snows.  If they got 3 inches of snow in their part of town, I might get 3.2 inches, or so I'd say.  Some would laugh about that supposition...others just shook their heads and walked away!

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45]UMgsyRIt_bigger.jpgThe Young TurksVerified account @TheYoungTurks

 

 

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.@RushLimbaugh thinks that hurricanes are part of a conspiracy theory to take down @realDonaldTrump.

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45]Z7ONDCBL_bigger.pngAl RokerVerified account @alroker

 

 

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Do not listen to @rushlimbaugh when he says #Irma is not a dangerous #storm and is hype. He is putting people's lives at risk

 

And don't use Oxycontin!

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Maybe there is a bit of wrath after all. Maybe it's the Wrath of God laying siege to the South because people from the South are always picking on California.

 

Is that what I did? I hadn't realized I had. Maybe I'm just collateral damage. :unsure:

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  • JakeHolman changed the title to HURRICANE ZETA

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