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shannon

My very erly forecast of the 2018 Oscar nominees???

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 (*-indicates possible frontrunner) & this marks my 37th year at oddsmaking & handicapping our fav annual sport of predicting the Oscars!  Started at only age 18 for the 1982 ACADEMY AWARDS & did crappy. By the yr of 1986 &  *PLATOON I started to get a handle on them, but still make errors of course! Last year I hit (20 for 24 correct with a batting avg of 83% on the winners I like handicappingthe noms more though,more difficult So here goes my own ultra early forecast of thefrontrunnersof the nominations>(ALREADY SOMEWHAT REVISED, GOT A FEW NEW TIPS1)

BEST PICTURE(once again probably 8 to 10  contenders & for the 10th consecutive year? (top 6 majors onlylooked at for now)

BLACKKKLANSMAN

THE BLACK PANTHER

THE FAVOURITE

*FIRST MAN

GREEN BOOK

*ROMA

*A STAR IS BORN

 & VICE

(Runners-Up):

IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK & CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?

 

BEST ACTOR???

*CHRISTIAN BALE in Vice-(looks amazing as Dick Cheyney)

BRADLEY COOPER, A Star is Born

WILLEM DAFOE in At World's End

*RAMI MALEK, Bohemian Rhapsody

& VIGGO MORTENSEN in Green Book

(Runners-Up):

RYAN GOSLING in First Man

 

BEST ACTRESS???

YALITA APARICIA in Roma

*GLENN CLOSE in The Wife-(likely BLOW OUT!)

OLIVIA COLMAN,  The Favourite

LADY GA GA in A Star is Born

& MELISSA McCARTHY, "Can You Ever Forgive Me?

(Runners-Up):

SAOIRSE RONAN in Mary, Queen of Scots & maybe NICOLE in Destroyer

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR???

*MAHERSHELA ALI in Green Book

*TIMOTHY CHALAMET, Beautiful Boy

RICHARD E. GRANT, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

SAM ELLIOTT,  A Star is Born

& SAM ROCKWELL in Vice

 

(P.S. I had hoped JOHN C. REILLY in the western Sisters Brothers would make the cut! He looks perfecto in upcoming Stan & Ollie!)

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS???

*ADAM ADAMS in Vice-(would be her 6th attempt)

NICOLE KIMDMAN,  Boy Erased

REGINA KING, If Beale Street Could Talk

EMMA STONE, The Favourite

RACHEL WEISZ, The Favourite

(Runners-Up):

CLAIRE FOY in First Man, MICHELLE YEO in Crazy Rich Asians & AMERINA DE TAVIA in Roma  

 

& BEST DIRECTOR???

*ALFONSO CURAN for  Roma

DAMIEN CHAZZELLE, First Man

BRADLEY COOPER,  A Star is Born

ADAM McKAY for Vice

& YOGOS LANTHIMOS for The Favourite

 

(NOTE: I don't see Spike lee being u for his first BD Gold for Blackkklansman, due to him carrying to much baggage over the yrs)

 

WHATS YOUR INOUT & OTHERS AS WELL?

 

MY FAV CATEGORY IS BEST O. SCORE THOUGH   this early most sites & such don't really cite the possible early contenders here yet?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I already see FIRST MAN & A STAR IS BORN leading the field with most nomnations & then ROMA-(did you see where ROIMA may also be eligible for FOREIGN FILM?

Next 2018 releases I hope to go & check out CREED II & then *Clint's THE MULE & STAN & OLLIE LOOKS JUST GREAT LOVE OLD HOLLYWOOD< LISTEDFOR JANUARY 2019 & TIM BURTON'S DUMBO ALSO LOOKS TREMEDOUS IN MARCH!!!

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Hi! Glad to see a new poster! However, the day Lady Gaga gets nominated for best actress after Myrna Loy went all of those years without one nomination in that same category I think I'll just drown myself. Plus I don't get the love for A Star Is Born, unless  Hollywood just assumes that everybody who was alive and able to go to the movies in 1976 is dead or suffering from Alzheimer's now. It's a derivative plot that has been done to death from every conceivable angle - 1976, 1954, 1937, and 1932 if you count "What Price Hollywood?" where it is the actress' director-best friend who is on the alcoholic downhill slide, not her husband. Just my two cents.

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26 minutes ago, calvinnme said:

Hi! Glad to see a new poster! However, the day Lady Gaga gets nominated for best actress after Myrna Loy went all of those years without one nomination in that same category I think I'll just drown myself. Plus I don't get the love for A Star Is Born, unless  Hollywood just assumes that everybody who was alive and able to go to the movies in 1976 is dead or suffering from Alzheimer's now. It's a derivative plot that has been done to death from every conceivable angle - 1976, 1954, 1937, and 1932 if you count "What Price Hollywood?" where it is the actress' director-best friend who is on the alcoholic downhill slide, not her husband. Just my two cents.

In the "old days" there were 30 or 40 performances in each acting category that could be called award-worthy. Today, you're lucky if you can think of 10, especially in the lead categories. Gaga and McCarthy... gaga gagola. And to think Myrna Loy never got nominated and neither did Edward G. Robinson, Ida Lupino, Errol Flynn, Marion Davies, Tyrone Power, Jeanette MacDonald, Rita Hayworth, Constance Bennett, Dick Powell, Lizabeth Scott, and so many others.

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10 hours ago, calvinnme said:

Hi! Glad to see a new poster! However, the day Lady Gaga gets nominated for best actress after Myrna Loy went all of those years without one nomination in that same category I think I'll just drown myself. Plus I don't get the love for A Star Is Born, unless  Hollywood just assumes that everybody who was alive and able to go to the movies in 1976 is dead or suffering from Alzheimer's now. It's a derivative plot that has been done to death from every conceivable angle - 1976, 1954, 1937, and 1932 if you count "What Price Hollywood?" where it is the actress' director-best friend who is on the alcoholic downhill slide, not her husband. Just my two cents.

Definitely NOT a new poster, Calvin. The style is immediately recognizable as "Spence". The obligatory asterisks by all Oscar nominees confirms it. Had no idea "Spence" was actually a woman ...?

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24 minutes ago, sewhite2000 said:

Definitely NOT a new poster, Calvin. The style is immediately recognizable as "Spence". The obligatory asterisks by all Oscar nominees confirms it. Had no idea "Spence" was actually a woman ...?

Yeah, I'm wondering if maybe he was banned so that's why he made a new account. :huh: His account doesn't say he's banned though.

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10 hours ago, calvinnme said:

Hi! Glad to see a new poster! However, the day Lady Gaga gets nominated for best actress after Myrna Loy went all of those years without one nomination in that same category I think I'll just drown myself. Plus I don't get the love for A Star Is Born, unless  Hollywood just assumes that everybody who was alive and able to go to the movies in 1976 is dead or suffering from Alzheimer's now. It's a derivative plot that has been done to death from every conceivable angle - 1976, 1954, 1937, and 1932 if you count "What Price Hollywood?" where it is the actress' director-best friend who is on the alcoholic downhill slide, not her husband. Just my two cents.

Better brace yourself but many expect her to win. Either she or Olivia Colman. I am personally hoping for a long overdue Glenn Close victory. But please, don't drown yourself. You would be missed far too much.

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11 minutes ago, CinemaInternational said:

 I am personally hoping for a long overdue Glenn Close victory. 

What 2018 movie was she in? :huh: IMDB only lists the Simpsons and some other TV show. 

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27 minutes ago, Gershwin fan said:

What 2018 movie was she in? :huh: IMDB only lists the Simpsons and some other TV show. 

The Wife is listed on IMDb as a 2017 film because it played last year's Toronto Film Festival. But, because the film was not released in the United States until August 2018, she and the film are fully eligible this year. This is not the first time that IMDb year and Oscar year do not coincide, see also: Tess (1979/1980), Atlantic City (1980/1981), The Year of Living Dangerously (1982/1983), Fanny and Alexander (1982/1983), My Life as a Dog (1985/1987), A Room with a View (1985/1986), Pelle the Conqueror (1987/1988), Camille Claudel (1988/1989), Sexy Beast (2000/2001), Whale Rider (2002/2003), In America (2002/2003),  Crash (2004/2005), Away from Her (2006/2007), The Hurt Locker (2008/2009), Beginners (2010/2011)

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12 hours ago, calvinnme said:

unless  Hollywood just assumes that everybody who was alive and able to go to the movies in 1976 is dead or suffering from Alzheimer's now.

They don't assume that. They're just not particularly interested in marketing to those viewers! It's been 42 years since the last version. They assumed that was ample time that the vast majority of the viewers they wanted to snare (aka not old people) had forgotten or never heard of it. I mean, it only took them 10 years to start Spider-Man over and have another movie with Uncle Ben getting shot again. Hollywood actually showed incredible restraint to wait this long to do this movie again.

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15 hours ago, calvinnme said:

Hi! Glad to see a new poster! However, the day Lady Gaga gets nominated for best actress after Myrna Loy went all of those years without one nomination in that same category I think I'll just drown myself. Plus I don't get the love for A Star Is Born, unless  Hollywood just assumes that everybody who was alive and able to go to the movies in 1976 is dead or suffering from Alzheimer's now. It's a derivative plot that has been done to death from every conceivable angle - 1976, 1954, 1937, and 1932 if you count "What Price Hollywood?" where it is the actress' director-best friend who is on the alcoholic downhill slide, not her husband. Just my two cents.

THANX, but *Streisand, Kristofferson, Gary Busey are still here   as jakeem & I already predicted one of it's songs will win the GOLDEN BOY! same went for the 1976 version & EVERGREEN

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3 hours ago, CinemaInternational said:

The Wife is listed on IMDb as a 2017 film because it played last year's Toronto Film Festival. But, because the film was not released in the United States until August 2018, she and the film are fully eligible this year. This is not the first time that IMDb year and Oscar year do not coincide, see also: Tess (1979/1980), Atlantic City (1980/1981), The Year of Living Dangerously (1982/1983), Fanny and Alexander (1982/1983), My Life as a Dog (1985/1987), A Room with a View (1985/1986), Pelle the Conqueror (1987/1988), Camille Claudel (1988/1989), Sexy Beast (2000/2001), Whale Rider (2002/2003), In America (2002/2003),  Crash (2004/2005), Away from Her (2006/2007), The Hurt Locker (2008/2009), Beginners (2010/2011)

I know it is, noticed it last week on it's trailers for 2017, but qualifies this year   AC was superb & I lived there just after it was filmed! Year of Living dangerously was a strong one (strong ***) I recall Ebert & Siskel loved it! Bored by A Room With a View though. Strangely I rank Merchant/Ivory's 1993 Remains of the Day as magnificent though, especially *Hopkins!  Sexy Beast ($8m.) (***) had a volcanic villainous role by *Kingsley, huh  & 2005's *Crash was considered a huge upset come Oscar time vs Brokeback Mtn   Ever see the somewat porno version of crash with *Holly hunter? & *H. Locker holds record as lowest grossing BP winner at just $17m.

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3 hours ago, CinemaInternational said:

The Wife is listed on IMDb as a 2017 film because it played last year's Toronto Film Festival. But, because the film was not released in the United States until August 2018, she and the film are fully eligible this year. This is not the first time that IMDb year and Oscar year do not coincide, see also: Tess (1979/1980), Atlantic City (1980/1981), The Year of Living Dangerously (1982/1983), Fanny and Alexander (1982/1983), My Life as a Dog (1985/1987), A Room with a View (1985/1986), Pelle the Conqueror (1987/1988), Camille Claudel (1988/1989), Sexy Beast (2000/2001), Whale Rider (2002/2003), In America (2002/2003),  Crash (2004/2005), Away from Her (2006/2007), The Hurt Locker (2008/2009), Beginners (2010/2011)

Being IRISH, I;m prejudiced with Jim Sheridan's very strong In America

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4 hours ago, Gershwin fan said:

What 2018 movie was she in? :huh: IMDB only lists the Simpsons and some other TV show. 

THE WIFE, you can find the trailer   right now it appears she will finally WALK DOWN-THe-AISLE on her 7th try

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5 hours ago, sewhite2000 said:

Definitely NOT a new poster, Calvin. The style is immediately recognizable as "Spence". The obligatory asterisks by all Oscar nominees confirms it. Had no idea "Spence" was actually a woman ...?

WHICH POSTER & WHAT DO YOU MEAN PLEASE?

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THE WIFE did indeed debut in 2017 in Canada but not in the US until 2018. It was a move made specifically to avoid competing in 2017 with Frances McDormand, whom everyone knew had a lock on the Oscar.

Glenn Close is great in this film. I'm a little surprised there's been no awards buzz for Jonathan Pryce, who plays the egomaniacal husband, or Christian Slater, who plays the snoopy reporter.  I was also impressed with Annie Starke, who plays Close in the flashbacks and is her real-life daughter.

But it's Close's slow-burn performance that is the showpiece here.

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1 hour ago, drednm said:

THE WIFE did indeed debut in 2017 in Canada but not in the US until 2018. It was a move made specifically to avoid competing in 2017 with Frances McDormand, whom everyone knew had a lock on the Oscar.

Glenn Close is great in this film. I'm a little surprised there's been no awards buzz for Jonathan Pryce, who plays the egomaniacal husband, or Christian Slater, who plays the snoopy reporter.  I was also impressed with Annie Starke, who plays Close in the flashbacks and is her real-life daughter.

But it's Close's slow-burn performance that is the showpiece here.

AGREED!  Don't now if i'll also go & see this one, too many others coming up & recall Pryce in BRAZIL & GLENGARRY GLEN ROSS?  Don't see him making the cut though, to crowded a field   GARP is my fav of hers & *ROBIN'S too!   THANK YOU

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19 hours ago, drednm said:

In the "old days" there were 30 or 40 performances in each acting category that could be called award-worthy. Today, you're lucky if you can think of 10, especially in the lead categories. Gaga and McCarthy... gaga gagola. And to think Myrna Loy never got nominated and neither did Edward G. Robinson, Ida Lupino, Errol Flynn, Marion Davies, Tyrone Power, Jeanette MacDonald, Rita Hayworth, Constance Bennett, Dick Powell, Lizabeth Scott, and so many others.

& a few others too!  John Barrymore was magnificent for just one in Hawks screwball comedy from 1934 TWENTIETH CENTURY! & I know many may scoff at this but both Buster Keaton, W.C. Fields were brilliant at what they did!   Split BIg-TIME WITH MacDONALD THOUGH, LOATHED HER!  HARLOW is yet another in LIBELED-LADY!?

 

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13 hours ago, CinemaInternational said:

Better brace yourself but many expect her to win. Either she or Olivia Colman. I am personally hoping for a long overdue Glenn Close victory. But please, don't drown yourself. You would be missed far too much.

I would like Glenn Close to win too. She had some good performances in the  1980's and got some nominations for Best Actress, and lots of people expected her to win at least once. Sadly that never happened. And thanks for saying I'd be missed.

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On 11/17/2018 at 9:38 AM, calvinnme said:

Hi! Glad to see a new poster! However, the day Lady Gaga gets nominated for best actress after Myrna Loy went all of those years without one nomination in that same category I think I'll just drown myself. Plus I don't get the love for A Star Is Born, unless  Hollywood just assumes that everybody who was alive and able to go to the movies in 1976 is dead or suffering from Alzheimer's now. It's a derivative plot that has been done to death from every conceivable angle - 1976, 1954, 1937, and 1932 if you count "What Price Hollywood?" where it is the actress' director-best friend who is on the alcoholic downhill slide, not her husband. Just my two cents.

I have friends (who aren't avid movie watchers) who have told me to go see this in theaters. I am a fan of Lady Gaga's voice (when she's singing with Tony Bennett or doing Elton John covers), but I haven't made it to the theater to see this. I most likely won't watch it until it comes out on rental or something. 

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Melissa McCarthy did not get an Independent Spirit Award nomination for Can You Ever Forgive Me? but co-star Richard E. Grant did get nominated. Doesn't bode well for her awards season.

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2 hours ago, drednm said:

Melissa McCarthy did not get an Independent Spirit Award nomination for Can You Ever Forgive Me? but co-star Richard E. Grant did get nominated. Doesn't bode well for her awards season.

It's a tad early in the game. She didn't get a nomination for the Gotham Independent Awards, either. Let's see how she fares next month with the Golden Globe, Screen Actors Guild and Critics' Choice nominations.

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