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TRUMP RECESSION IS COMING


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10 minutes ago, NipkowDisc said:

and of course if we head into recession how will the dems look to the voters refusing to cooperate or work with trump in anyway and they're gonna sell that as their great abiding concern for the working class?

:lol:

Are you kidding?!?  Trump listens to nobody but himself in this field.  No one in his Administration, much less the Dems, can change his mind on these tariffs; he brags about his prowess in economic matters!  NOT!!!!  The markets are reacting to his stupid trade war, and even he is finally realizing thatt Americans, not China, pay the tariffs.  No wonder he has had multiple failed businesses  and bankruptcies.  HAHAHAHA!

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2 hours ago, NipkowDisc said:

and of course if we head into recession how will the dems look to the voters refusing to cooperate or work with trump in anyway and they're gonna sell that as their great abiding concern for the working class?

:lol:

You mean refusing to work with "across-the-aisle" Trump?  Refusing to work with the architect of a great recession and multiple bankruptcies and someone who robbed from the poor to give to the rich?  

Even for you, this post is outrageous.

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4 hours ago, NipkowDisc said:

and of course if we head into recession how will the dems look to the voters refusing to cooperate or work with trump in anyway and they're gonna sell that as their great abiding concern for the working class?

:lol:

Nipkow, tariffs (especially retaliatory tariffs) do not work.

https://taxfoundation.org/adam-smith-trump-tariffs/

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The bond inversion that is occurring is a direct result of Trump's failed economic policies.  Trump as much as admitted that HIS tariffs are causing economic problems for middle classes when he delayed some of latest tariffs until after Christmas shopping season.  Not to mention the bail out for agriculture, most of which did not go to real farmers.

People have forgotten that it took Obama and the Democrats to get us out of Bush's Great Recession.  Obama also saved the largest manufacturing industry in US - automotive.

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okay, lets say trump is just a tad too impartial to our greedy but well-meaning corporate profiteers...

what incentive to the democrats give to trump to wanna work with them? most of their leftist loony candidates are outright pushing socialism.

they doan wanna help their pet suckers the working class in any way just beat trump next year all the while claiming that their politics was for the benefit of the masses.

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13 hours ago, Gershwin fan said:

Nipkow, tariffs (especially retaliatory tariffs) do not work.

https://taxfoundation.org/adam-smith-trump-tariffs/

Other countries is having lower GDP as well. From CNN..

Last week, the UK announced negative GDP growth for the past quarter. This week, it's Germany announcing shrinking GDP with its 10-year bond hitting a record negative 0.62% yield. Then there's Europe seeing negative industrial production, and China announcing its lowest industrial production growth in 17 years.

 

Simple supply and demand - people are not buying as much especially millennials.  Know I'm not.

Dow is gaining a little.

25,517.62 +38.20 (0.15%)

Seems like yesterday (2017) it was at 20,000 - is there a limit on how FAST it can grow without some sort of adjustments?

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15 minutes ago, hamradio said:

Other countries is having lower GDP as well. From CNN..

 

Newsflash, HamRadio:  the American economy and its trade wars has worldwide repercussions.  

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17 minutes ago, Bogie56 said:

Newsflash, HamRadio:  the American economy and its trade wars has worldwide repercussions.  

Newsflash, China had an unprecedented growth rate during the past 20 years at the cost of American jobs!

20090527-20080709090526140.jpg

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTy4pVWJXtVhrDkRxupUYw

china.JPG

 

How all that was paid for??

transporte_de_contenedores_en_tren.jpg

:angry:

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1 hour ago, NipkowDisc said:

what incentive to the democrats give to trump to wanna work with them?

The evil ones will have to be drained from the Democrat Party first.

That is coming, but whether the Party can survive it is a question without a sure answer at this time.

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2 hours ago, hamradio said:

Newsflash, China had an unprecedented growth rate during the past 20 years at the cost of American jobs!

 

 

How all that was paid for??

 

:angry:

Probably by interest on the loans from China to service the American debt - which is growing astronomically under Trump.  Gotta pay for the tax cuts to billionaires somehow.

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Okay who wants a plain-language explanation of the inverted yield curve? ......

 

So first the context: Why the bond market tells you more about the economy than the stock market.

We all hear about the stock market every day. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

What is the stock market? Think of it as a literary device...........

 

So the stock market is actually a tiny fish.

The big fish is the BOND market. TRILLIONS of dollars.

What are bonds? They are how companies and governments borrow money. Every bond is a contract that says "we'll pay you back with this interest on this date.".........

Now let's go to Treasury bonds.

There are three important durations of US Treasury bonds: 3 months, 2 years and 10 years.......

 

And today, briefly, you could make more money buying two-year Treasury bonds than 10-year ones.

This phenomenon of getting paid more for a short-term loan than a long-term loan to the US government:

It is all upside down! It's inverted!

 

Ergo the INVERTED YIELD CURVE.

So why is this specifically bad news?

Well because when the yield curve is INVERTED, usually a recession follows within around two years.

TWO YEARS. That's been the case for the last 5 recessions.

 

Inverted yield curve predicts recessions......

see: https://twitter.com/moorehn/status/1161766324642750465

 

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Why the inverted yield curve makes investors worry about a recession

".....investors appeared to be reacting to the Federal Reserve’s signals that it is pessimistic about the future economy. The investors’ response to those signals led to the crucial economic indicator becoming inverted from its “normal” state.

The latest inversion sent stocks plummeting. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 800 points, or 3 percent, Wednesday.

What is an inverted yield curve?

Here’s how the yield curve works: When investors buy bonds, they are lending the government money. The Treasury then pays back interest on that money each year and returns the full amount to investors whenever the bond reaches the end of its set term — or, as it’s called, its maturity date.

The yield on a Treasury bond is the interest rate the U.S. Treasury is offering investors to get them to lend it money...........

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/making-sense/why-the-inverted-yield-curve-makes-investors-worry-about-a-recession

 

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21 hours ago, mr6666 said:

 

 

 

Okay who wants a plain-language explanation of the inverted yield curve? ......

 

So first the context: Why the bond market tells you more about the economy than the stock market.

We all hear about the stock market every day. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

What is the stock market? Think of it as a literary device...........

 

So the stock market is actually a tiny fish.

The big fish is the BOND market. TRILLIONS of dollars.

What are bonds? They are how companies and governments borrow money. Every bond is a contract that says "we'll pay you back with this interest on this date.".........

Now let's go to Treasury bonds.

There are three important durations of US Treasury bonds: 3 months, 2 years and 10 years.......

 

And today, briefly, you could make more money buying two-year Treasury bonds than 10-year ones.

This phenomenon of getting paid more for a short-term loan than a long-term loan to the US government:

It is all upside down! It's inverted!

 

Ergo the INVERTED YIELD CURVE.

So why is this specifically bad news?

Well because when the yield curve is INVERTED, usually a recession follows within around two years.

TWO YEARS. That's been the case for the last 5 recessions.

 

Inverted yield curve predicts recessions......

see: https://twitter.com/moorehn/status/1161766324642750465

 

Check on CD rates and it is the same.  Banks will pay more on 11 month CD's than for longer term ones.

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Trump’s economic advisers baffled over how to hold off recession that his trade war set it in motion:

 

".......Bedeviling the president’s advisors is a lack of ideas about how to halt the slide into a re-election-killing economy.

 

“White House economic advisers see few options for reversing course should the economy start to slip,” te report stares before saying the president, for the money, is looking to spread blame elsewhere.

“Trump has taken to blaming others for the recession fears, mostly the Federal Reserve, which he is pushing for further interest rate cuts. Yet much of the uncertainty in the markets stems from his own escalation of a trade war with China, as well as weakened economies in key countries around the world,” ABC reports. “Aides acknowledge it is unclear what steps the White House could take to stop a downturn........

https://www.rawstory.com/2019/08/trumps-economic-advisers-baffled-over-how-to-hold-off-recession-that-his-trade-war-set-it-in-motion-report/

:unsure:

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Interestingly one of news programs this morning indicated that the RV industry predicts recessions. RV sales down; recession occurs.  Sales were down somewhat last year, but are way down this year.  In part due to tariffs, but probably mostly due to people being scared to purchase them in uncertain economic times.

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1 hour ago, Bogie56 said:

Stocks are down today on the worst manufacturing numbers in 10 years.

People like trump laugh at people who are going to retire on 401K plans.

So he doesn't give a damn about what the stock market does.

Besides, trump has all his money in Rubles.

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2 hours ago, Bogie56 said:

Stocks are down today on the worst manufacturing numbers in 10 years.

Trump continues to tout that he is bringing manufacturing back.  Most of his base continues to believe it.  Maybe Trump and family will be more successful with this and lead by example; bring back your own items to be manufactured in the US as opposed to overseas.  Ain’t gonna happen with this hypocrite.

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FACT CHECK: Trump wrongly blames Fed for factory woes

 

"........In a tweet Tuesday, he essentially argues that the Fed’s rate hikes last year pushed up the value of the dollar, which makes U.S. goods more expensive overseas. His argument is a distortion that attempts to downplay the negative consequences from escalating a trade war with China.

A look at the claim:

TRUMP: “As I predicted, Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve have allowed the Dollar to get so strong, especially relative to ALL other currencies, that our manufacturers are being negatively affected. Fed Rate too high.”

THE FACTS: Actually, most economists and many factory owners point to Trump’s trade policies for the difficulties in U.S. manufacturing, not the Federal Reserve......

That ISM report shows that the factory sector has been contracting in large part because of the trade war against China that Trump sparked by launching a salvo of tariffs.

The index is based on a survey of manufacturers. Of the 10 quoted in the report, none blame the challenges they face on the Fed or the strong dollar. But three say the tariffs and trade war have hurt their businesses.

“The primary culprit here is the trade war,”..........

https://apnews.com/c05d4cc450c045bcb2b6361cfdb72381?utm_medium=APBusiness&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter

 

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16 minutes ago, mr6666 said:

FACT CHECK: Trump wrongly blames Fed for factory woes

 

"........In a tweet Tuesday, he essentially argues that the Fed’s rate hikes last year pushed up the value of the dollar, which makes U.S. goods more expensive overseas. His argument is a distortion that attempts to downplay the negative consequences from escalating a trade war with China.

A look at the claim:

TRUMP: “As I predicted, Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve have allowed the Dollar to get so strong, especially relative to ALL other currencies, that our manufacturers are being negatively affected. Fed Rate too high.”

THE FACTS: Actually, most economists and many factory owners point to Trump’s trade policies for the difficulties in U.S. manufacturing, not the Federal Reserve......

That ISM report shows that the factory sector has been contracting in large part because of the trade war against China that Trump sparked by launching a salvo of tariffs.

The index is based on a survey of manufacturers. Of the 10 quoted in the report, none blame the challenges they face on the Fed or the strong dollar. But three say the tariffs and trade war have hurt their businesses.

“The primary culprit here is the trade war,”..........

https://apnews.com/c05d4cc450c045bcb2b6361cfdb72381?utm_medium=APBusiness&utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter

 

Read an article today that BMW plant in Greer S.C. is blaming the tariffs for decreased sales in China.  Also mentioning may add another plant in China or expand existing one.  Couched in very diplomatic terms as the governor, state legislature, local county and city councils are all very pro-Trump.

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