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LornaHansonForbes

Anyone else get the feeling that Oscars 2019 in particular is headed for a spectacular train wreck?

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12 minutes ago, LornaHansonForbes said:

also also,

I think a lot of people with the nominating power are looking and GAGA and wondering whether there is any future potential as a film star or if this is just a one-off "fluke"- to be honest, I don't see her being able to be a real film actress given that her persona- like that of ELVIS or MADONNA or even (Oscar or no) CHER- comes first and hangs larger than life over any project she'd chose.

they might be worries this is kind of a "one-off" JENNIFER HUDSON style, "stunt" award.

I mean, I don't see GAGA doing a SISTER KENNY remake any time soon, AWESOME as it might be!

The SAG awards frequently match up to the eventual Oscar winners, and Gaga was nominated for Best Actress there. (By the way, I thought by "snub" you meant Gaga wouldn't even get a nomination, but if you just meant "not win", then yeah I agree). 

Close has the edge for being this year's "career win", as they seem to have one every year or two, and people are rooting for her (I'm not saying she doesn't outright deserve it anyway, as I haven't seen the movie, but that's how the Oscars roll). But Colman has a real chance for a few reasons: she's won the majority of the season's Best Actress awards (I think), she's playing a real person, and she's British.

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Colman, to me, was more a supporting player in an ensemble piece. Will be interesting to see how this plays out when the nominations come out. Will all 3 actresses be nominated? And in what category? I dont think her part was any bigger than her co-stars. The producers may campaign for her in the best actress category, but that doesnt mean she'll end up there.

I remember Peggy Ashcroft winning many critics and other awards in the best actress category, but when she was nominated for an Oscar (and won) it was in supporting.

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9 minutes ago, LornaHansonForbes said:

I REMEMBER THAT!!!!!!!!!!

DITTO!!!!!

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15 minutes ago, LornaHansonForbes said:

I REMEMBER THAT!!!!!!!!!!

You weren't that cute girl with long hair and and wearing a Bobby Brooks outfit, on the plaid couch at the college frat party I attended where I brought the keg and we all watched the Oscars, were you?

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8 minutes ago, Hibi said:

DITTO!!!!!

Great minds must remember alike, though I feel yours is a lot greater than mine, Hibi.

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1 hour ago, LawrenceA said:

The SAG awards frequently match up to the eventual Oscar winners, and Gaga was nominated for Best Actress there. (By the way, I thought by "snub" you meant Gaga wouldn't even get a nomination, but if you just meant "not win", then yeah I agree). 

 

oh no, I meant I think she won't even get a nomination, and I'm not basing it on anything other than my intrinsic sense I've got that people in HOLLYWOOD are ITCHING to be PETTY about this.

I have a sixth sense when it comes to pettiness. there's a little voice inside my head that sounds like HIM from THE POWERPUFF GIRLS with a little "JOAN COLLINS as ALEXIS" thrown in for reverb and SHE ALERTS ME WHEN THERE IS A DISTURBANCE IN THE FORCE. 

so while all signs point to GAGA RUM PA PA PA as one of the few LOCKS as BEST ACTRESS, i just get the sense she'll not only be left off the list, but someone from some 8mm independent Portuguese  film that came out four years ago but qualifies because of some dumb **** bylaw passed last year will get it instead- JUST FOR AN EXTRA LAYER OF spite (see also: BREAKING THE WAVES.)

(Again tho, NOT ROOTING AGAINST GAGA by any means.)

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1 hour ago, LawrenceA said:

The SAG awards frequently match up to the eventual Oscar winners, and Gaga was nominated for Best Actress there. (By the way, I thought by "snub" you meant Gaga wouldn't even get a nomination, but if you just meant "not win", then yeah I agree). 

Close has the edge for being this year's "career win", as they seem to have one every year or two, and people are rooting for her (I'm not saying she doesn't outright deserve it anyway, as I haven't seen the movie, but that's how the Oscars roll). But Colman has a real chance for a few reasons: she's won the majority of the season's Best Actress awards (I think), she's playing a real person, and she's British.

it's not just that CLOSE lost six times, it's that she lost for some iconic roles in some iconic movies that are still very much on the social consciousness to this day (THE BIG CHILL, DANGEROUS LIAISONS, FATAL ATTRACTION, and of course MARS ATTACKS!) AND many of the actresses who beat her have gone on to careers with about 1/20 as much output as she's had- she's worked PROLIFICALLY, TV and movies and big ones too, for about 30 years)

(AND YOU can't say quite the same for LINDA HUNT, CHER or even JODIE FOSTER)

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7 minutes ago, LornaHansonForbes said:

oh no, I meant I think she won't even get a nomination, and I'm not basing it on anything other than my intrinsic sense I've got that people in HOLLYWOOD are ITCHING to be PETTY about this.

I have a sixth sense when it comes to pettiness. there's a little voice inside my head that sounds like HIM from THE POWERPUFF GIRLS with a little "JOAN COLLINS as ALEXIS" thrown in for reverb and SHE ALERTS ME WHEN THERE IS A DISTURBANCE IN THE FORCE. 

so while all signs point to GAGA RUM PA PA PA as one of the few LOCKS as BEST ACTRESS, i just get the sense she'll not only be left off the list, but someone from some 8mm independent Portuguese  film that came out four years ago but qualifies because of some dumb **** will get it instead.

(Again tho, NOT ROOTING AGAINST GAGA by any means.)

Gaga would probably be lucky if she loses, as so many early in film career winners ended up having lackluster film careers long term, do you agree, Prognosticator Lorna?

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2 minutes ago, GordonCole said:

Gaga would probably be lucky if she loses, as so many early in film career winners ended up having lackluster film careers long term, do you agree, Prognosticator Lorna?

THAT'S THE DAMN TRUTH.

and it's not just early winners, 9 times out of 10, established stars who have been on a hot nomination (but no win) streak see it come to a SCREECHING halt on finally winning (NICHOLSON (although he recovered), SUSANS SARANDON and HAYWARD, PACINO, RENEE ZELLWEGGGERER, and many many maaaaaaaaaany more)

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21 hours ago, CinemaInternational said:

...I think that the much lauded The Favourite is historically reckless by basing its entire plot around lurid 300 year old gossip that was never substantiated, which lead me to conclude if the rumors are true, they are ripping away the privacy of people no longer around to defend themselves, and if false, are libelous...

 

You know, I've been thinking, and I believe I may owe you an apology. Upon reflection, I suspect that your comment was made as what used to be called "tongue-in-cheek". In other words, you must have been joking. I apologize for lacking the sense of humour, at least at the time I initially read and responded to your post, to recognize that.

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1 hour ago, LornaHansonForbes said:

THAT'S THE DAMN TRUTH.

and it's not just early winners, 9 times out of 10, established stars who have been on a hot nomination (but no win) streak see it come to a SCREECHING halt on finally winning (NICHOLSON (although he recovered), SUSANS SARANDON and HAYWARD, PACINO, RENEE ZELLWEGGGERER, and many many maaaaaaaaaany more)

I recall an interview, maybe with Barbara Walters (remember those "day or two before the Oscars" interview specials that used to run every year?) with Morgan Freeman in 1989, when he was up for Driving Miss Daisy, and also appeared in Glory. He was asked about how he felt about maybe winning (many thought he was a shoo-in but he lost to Daniel Day-Lewis for My Left Foot), and he said he did not want to win, because in his experience, actors with Oscar wins were often looked over by producers because they believed that the award-winner's asking price would be too high, and Freeman wished to continue working a lot.

I'm not sure if he still felt the same when he eventually won 15 years later. Alas, Hollywood is even tougher on the ladies. 

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3 hours ago, LornaHansonForbes said:

also also,

I think a lot of people with the nominating power are looking and GAGA and wondering whether there is any future potential as a film star or if this is just a one-off "fluke"- to be honest, I don't see her being able to be a real film actress given that her persona- like that of ELVIS or MADONNA or even (Oscar or no) CHER- comes first and hangs larger than life over any project she'd chose.

they might be worries this is kind of a "one-off" JENNIFER HUDSON style, "stunt" award.

I mean, I don't see GAGA doing a SISTER KENNY remake any time soon, AWESOME as it might be!

Gags only took the project because, oo, Barbara Streisand!  (And, ironically, not so much because of Judy Garland.)

Barbara Streisand later became power-mad in the late-70's to early 80's after her Star is Born and Funny Lady, going from producing to directing "Yentl", and eventually getting a Best Director/Picture nomination for "Prince of Tides". 

I don't see Mr. G going on to the same influence in the industry.  Mr. G is sort of like the rainbow Quentin Tarantino, parasitically attaching "herself" to every single cult fan-influence "she" grew up with, and demanding the same love and more attention for it.  And I say that not only as a Hatsune Miku fan who wishes Gags would mind "her" own danged business, but also as a Muppets fan who had to watch Gags do three separate TV specials with the Muppets just because the Disney movie had frustratingly cut out "her" big number with Miss Piggy.

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5 hours ago, LawrenceA said:

I don't know...I think she'll get a Best Actress nod (she's reportedly the best thing about the movie), and she'll almost certainly get a Best Song nomination (and probably win that one). 

However, she won't win for Best Actress. That will be either Olivia Colman for The Favourite or Glenn Close for The Wife.

Or maybe it should be Yalitza Aparicio for Roma.

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4 minutes ago, misswonderly3 said:

Or maybe it should be Yalitza Aparicio for Roma.

I wasn't very impressed by either her or the film, but I know I'm in the minority on that. I still think the movie has a strong shot at Best Picture.

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6 minutes ago, misswonderly3 said:

Or maybe it should be Yalitza Aparicio for Roma.

YAAAAS that’s the kind a leftfield thinking we need. Perfect. Foreign as all get out, I never heard of her, movie sounds kind of sketchy – I’m betting anything she takes the Gaga slot.

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5 minutes ago, LawrenceA said:

I wasn't very impressed by either her or the film, but I know I'm in the minority on that. I still think the movie has a strong shot at Best Picture.

Really, Lawrence ? I'm very surprised. I would have thought you'd have liked Roma. I just saw it yesterday, and I loved it. I'm curious to know why you "weren't very impressed" with it. Maybe on the "I Just Watched Thread" we can discuss this.

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2 minutes ago, misswonderly3 said:

Really, Lawrence ? I'm very surprised. I would have thought you'd have liked Roma. I just saw it yesterday, and I loved it. I'm curious to know why you "weren't very impressed" with it. Maybe on the "I Just Watched Thread" we can discuss this.

I talked about it in the "Films of 2018" thread a couple of weeks ago. Here's the link, but you'll need to read back a few posts. Many of the last posts on there are about Roma.

http://forums.tcm.com/topic/158284-films-of-2018/?page=25&tab=comments#comment-1932568

 

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20 hours ago, LornaHansonForbes said:

YAAAAS that’s the kind a leftfield thinking we need. Perfect. Foreign as all get out, I never heard of her, movie sounds kind of sketchy – I’m betting anything she takes the Gaga slot.

No, Roma is not sketchy, it's one of the best movies I've seen this year. Make that the best.

You're pretty smart, Lorna...don't tell me that just because a film's made in a language other than English, and English-speaking people need subtitles to understand it, you find that off-putting.

Stereotype, with apologies to all who do not fit this description: many Americans seem averse to watching any movie not made in English. Or even, not made in American.

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11 minutes ago, CinemaInternational said:

She will not be ignored!

Speaking of which, I'm wondering if you have me on "ignore". Just asking. (Of course, ironically, if you have me on "ignore" you will not see this post.)

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6 minutes ago, misswonderly3 said:

Speaking of which, I'm wondering if you have me on "ignore". Just asking. (Of course, ironically, if you have me on "ignore" you will not see this post.)

No, don't have anybody on ignore.

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40 minutes ago, misswonderly3 said:

No, Roma is not sketchy, it's one of the best movies I've seen this year. Make that the best.

You're pretty smart, Lorna...don't tell me that just because a film's made in a language other than English, and English-speaking people need subtitles to understand it, you find that off-putting.

Stereotype, with apologies to all who do not fit this description: many Americans seem averse to watching any movie not made in English. Or even, not made in American.

Or, that we've had "Art" indies rammed up our collective Oscar behinds for the last decade, we've stopped seeking them out because we've stopped being able to tell them apart.

In any other five-nomination year of the 80's or 90's, Roma would be the Critical Darling that would invariably lose to the populist favorite (which is why every single culturally-paranoid regional NBOR critic would give it Best of the Year to thumb their nose at "the superhero movie"), but now that we've gotten EIGHT of them a year at the Oscars, every year, for the last ten years, "Fatigue" is the polite way of putting it.  Any other way would be censored by the Mods.

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1 hour ago, misswonderly3 said:

No, Roma is not sketchy, it's one of the best movies I've seen this year. Make that the best.

You're pretty smart, Lorna...don't tell me that just because a film's made in a language other than English, and English-speaking people need subtitles to understand it, you find that off-putting.

Stereotype, with apologies to all who do not fit this description: many Americans seem averse to watching any movie not made in English. Or even, not made in American.

Sketchy was bad word, obscure might be better. Or esoteric...

 One of my biggest issues with the best actress category is that so often the nominees are SO off the radar- teeny tiny little films they made less than 3 million at the box office and barely got a release. I know it’s more a symptom than the problem, but generally if you add up the box office grosses of the five best actress nominees they don’t even equal what one of the best actor nominees’ films made

It’s also the category where a lot of foreign language nominees “sneak” in, which is technically fine, but again a symptom not the problem that there aren’t very many good roles for actresses in big budget American pictures made nowadays.

It’s funny, for all my film snob tendencies when it comes to the Oscars are very much a populist. I would kind of rather see popular, successful films recognized, But a lot of this is residual frustration I had from the 90s when the Oscars were 100% the Harvey Weinstein show And a lot of 8 mm, shot on camcorder stuff managed to get big nominations. (Again i.e. “breaking the waves”)

 

 

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Just now, LornaHansonForbes said:

Sketchy was bad word, obscure might be better. Or esoteric...

 One of my biggest issues with the best actress category is that so often the nominees are SO off the radar- teeny tiny little films they made less than 3 million at the box office and barely got a release. I know it’s more a symptom than the problem, but generally if you add up the box office grosses of the five best actress nominees they don’t even equal what one of the best actor nominees’ films made

It’s also the category where a lot of foreign language nominees “sneak” in, which is technically fine, but again a symptom not the problem that there aren’t very many good roles for actresses in big budget American pictures made nowadays.

It’s funny, for all my film snob tendencies when it comes to the Oscars are very much a populist. I would kind of rather see popular, successful films recognized, But a lot of this is residual frustration I had from the 90s when the Oscars were 100% the Harvey Weinstein show And a lot of 8 mm, shot on camcorder stuff managed to get big nominations. (Again i.e. “breaking the waves”)

 

 

Central Station was another out of left field Oscar nomination for Best Actress in the 90s. But Ms. aparicio would definitely be a surprise nominee, and she just might get in given the love for the film. Roma is her first acting role, no previous ones, and in a foreign film. So, its going right after that Emily Watson/Fernanda Montenegro/Catalina Sandino Moreno type of mold if she does get in.

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