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TheCid

2020 Election

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7 hours ago, TheCid said:

N.C. Ninth District won by Republican by about 2 percent.  Trump took the district by 19 points in 2016.  Trump and Pence had campaigned in the district that extends from Charlotte to Fayetteville (home of Ft. Bragg, 82nd Airborne, Special Forces, XVIII Airborne Corps, etc.).

This could be the last race of 2018 or maybe the first of 2020.  Trump is taking credit for the victory.

The number I saw was 12% in 2016. Since the Republicans have held the seat since 1963, it's

not too surprising they won, though by a much smaller margin. I wouldn't be surprised if Dan

McCready ran again next year.

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35 minutes ago, mr6666 said:

Republicans Won Both Elections In North Carolina — But It’s Not All Bad News For Democrats

 

"...... taken together, the results of special elections3 do mean something for 2020. Specifically, if one party is performing consistently better than its normal partisan baseline, that has historically presaged a strong cycle for that party in the next regularly scheduled election. Most recently, of course, Democratic candidates in 2017-2018 special elections did much better than a weighted average of 2016 and 2012 presidential results in their states and districts, and Democrats wound up winning control of the House amid a historic blue wave. ....

Republicans can enjoy their wins tonight; with the two new Republicans taking their seats, they will have cut the Democrats’ House majority to 235-199. But early signs still point to another Democratic-leaning year in 2020 — just maybe not another “blue wave.”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-won-both-elections-in-north-carolina-but-its-not-all-bad-news-for-democrats/

 

:unsure:

The same people who predicted Trump had no chance at all, Jeb Bush was easily the GOP nominee and Hillary Clinton would easily defeat Trump.

There was no blue "wave" in 2020.  Also, most of the newly elected Dems are moderates, not progressive liberals.  And it only happened in the House and not the Senate.  While the Dem candidate did do better in NC 9, at end of day the GOPers still controlled both House seats.

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7 minutes ago, TheCid said:

He trailed Jeb Bush (remember him?) by a whole lot more at this point in time in 2015 as well.

True but Trump was an unknown political animal at that point.  No chance of that knid of cover now.

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3 minutes ago, Bogie56 said:

True but Trump was an unknown political animal at that point.  No chance of that knid of cover now.

Not about how much more we know about Trump now compared to then, but more about polls and projections this far out.  While Trump was unknown as a politician at that point in time, he was very well known as  a person and a celebrity and not in a good way.  He still won.

Note that your Whopper thread was started in May of 2016 and he was not the first Trump thread on this forum.  Not to mention all the other forums, news programs, websites and so forth pointing out his foibles.

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2 minutes ago, TheCid said:

Not about how much more we know about Trump now compared to then, but more about polls and projections this far out.  While Trump was unknown as a politician at that point in time, he was very well known as  a person and a celebrity and not in a good way.  He still won.

Lots of people thought that a billionaire businessperson and apprentice tv star might make a good president.  Reality has shown anyone who really thinks about these things that they could not have been more wrong.

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1 minute ago, Bogie56 said:

Lots of people thought that a billionaire businessperson and apprentice tv star might make a good president.  Reality has shown anyone who really thinks about these things that they could not have been more wrong.

Note that your Whopper thread was started in May of 2016 and this was not the first Trump thread on this forum.  Not to mention all the other forums, news programs, websites and so forth pointing out his foibles well before the GOP convention.

So his serious limitations as a 'billionaire businessperson and TV star" and other problems were already well publicized.  The people who voted didn't care - and many still don't.  The problem is who the Dems nominate and who gets their people to the polls to vote.

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1 hour ago, Bogie56 said:

I would assume the DNC and others are already very much aware of this.  Just as they should be that the GOPer and Trump machines will do the same thing for any Dem nominee and all Dem positions.

Actually I favor Amy Klobuchar, but she does not have much of a chance.  Age would not be an issue with her, but that is not only reason I favor her.

 

35 minutes ago, Gershwin fan said:

 

This video does not show that Biden did NOT say everybody had to buy in and Castro was wrong.  Also does not show that neither Sanders nor Warren can actually explain how MFA would be paid for.  Tax the rich and corporations ain't gonna get it done.

Also, majority of Dems and vast majority of GOPers and independents are opposed to Medicare For All.

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2 minutes ago, TheCid said:

Actually I favor Amy Klobuchar, but she does not have much of a chance.  Age would not be an issue with her, but that is not only reason I favor her.

Interestingly, I spoke to two acquaintances this morning, one male, one female, unrelated to each other (not family or spouses), one of whom is a registered Democrat, the other being an independent, and they both said that the candidate that they are least impressed with of the ten is Klobuchar. They both like Sanders but think he is too old. The guy likes Biden while the woman doesn't, and they both think he's too old, as well. As for who they settled on as their favorite, neither were certain, but the guy (independent) said he was leaning heavily toward Warren. These people are both over age 50, and they're both white, if anyone's interested in demographics. 

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5 minutes ago, LawrenceA said:

Interestingly, I spoke to two acquaintances this morning, one male, one female, unrelated to each other (not family or spouses), one of whom is a registered Democrat, the other being an independent, and they both said that the candidate that they are least impressed with of the ten is Klobuchar. They both like Sanders but think he is too old. The guy likes Biden while the woman doesn't, and they both think he's too old, as well. As for who they settled on as their favorite, neither were certain, but the guy (independent) said he was leaning heavily toward Warren. These people are both over age 50, and they're both white, if anyone's interested in demographics. 

It's going to be Warren Booker.  You heard it here first.

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3 minutes ago, Bogie56 said:

It's going to be Warren Booker.  You heard it here first.

I was really hoping for Williamson/Yang. Can you imagine the state of the union addresses?

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5 minutes ago, Bogie56 said:

It's going to be Warren Booker.  You heard it here first.

Is Warren Booker a new candidate?  Hadn't heard of him.

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12 minutes ago, LawrenceA said:

Interestingly, I spoke to two acquaintances this morning, one male, one female, unrelated to each other (not family or spouses), one of whom is a registered Democrat, the other being an independent, and they both said that the candidate that they are least impressed with of the ten is Klobuchar. They both like Sanders but think he is too old. The guy likes Biden while the woman doesn't, and they both think he's too old, as well. As for who they settled on as their favorite, neither were certain, but the guy (independent) said he was leaning heavily toward Warren. These people are both over age 50, and they're both white, if anyone's interested in demographics. 

I like Klobuchar because she is a moderate and seems to be more grounded in reality than Warren, Sanders, etc. Of course this is why she cannot win the Dem primary. She has also been successful in the Senate and in getting elected and re-elected in MN.   

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/09/13/three-big-winners-houston-debate/

Thursday’s Democratic debate lacked the sparks and conflicts that characterized the first two outings. It nonetheless produced three clear winners: former vice president Joe Biden, Sen. Kamala D. Harris (D-Calif.) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.)

Klobuchar was the surprise of the night, finally showing some energy and life. Her opening statement carefully presented her case as the Midwestern working mom who can unite the country while advancing liberal policy goals. Cleverly blasting Sanders’s signature Medicare-for-all proposal by saying, “While Bernie wrote the bill, I read the bill,” was a masterstroke. Her closing statement was superb as she argued that only someone from the middle of the country could speak to the middle of the political spectrum.

 

She won’t gain much in the polls from her performance, but it nonetheless demonstrates how she could break out of the pack. Her standing in Iowa polls is slightly higher than her national standing, and her debate strategy was laser-targeted on the Iowa voter who isn’t a staunch progressive. Biden owns that lane right now, and if he stays strong, Klobuchar goes home early. But if he does falter, her demeanor and argument are tailor-made for one of Iowa’s patented late surges.

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Klobuchar comes across as a cliched politician to me and as exciting as a wet rag.  A harmless one though.  I guess that is the appeal to some who quake in their boots at the thought of change.

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1 hour ago, Bogie56 said:

Klobuchar comes across as a cliched politician to me and as exciting as a wet rag.  A harmless one though.  I guess that is the appeal to some who quake in their boots at the thought of change.

Guess you are talking about me and other non-socialist, non-liberal Democrats?  But there are a lot of VOTERS in America who do not like change and that is what the Dem Party has to consider for Nov. 2020.

We don't quake in our boots at the thought of change.  After all we voted for Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, among many others.

We want realistic change that can actually be accomplished for the long term-and paid for without bankrupting the country.  Obamacare (ACA) is on the ropes now because Trump won.  While a majority did not vote for him, he won and that is the American system and many who voted for him did so because of where they though ACA was headed.

I do agree that Klobuchar is not very exciting, but then the Titanic was exciting - for a while.  Klobuchar has been very successful in Minn. politics and in the US Senate.  She may be a cliched politician, but she gets things done.

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1 hour ago, Bogie56 said:

Klobuchar comes across as a cliched politician to me and as exciting as a wet rag.  A harmless one though.  I guess that is the appeal to some who quake in their boots at the thought of change.

Both Obama and Trump campaigned on a change agenda.     In the battleground states that matter,  I suspect that a majority of voters don't want 'radical' changes.

I.e. change plays well in red and blue states;   red states want to change what they perceive as the too-blue-feds to be more red, and blue states want the opposite.

But in purple states,  change won't sell especially after two Presidents that campaigned on change, change change.

 

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17 minutes ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Both Obama and Trump campaigned on a change agenda.     In the battleground states that matter,  I suspect that a majority of voters don't want 'radical' changes.

I.e. change plays well in red and blue states;   red states want to change what they perceive as the too-blue-feds to be more red, and blue states want the opposite.

But in purple states,  change won't sell especially after two Presidents that campaigned on change, change change.

 

This is my all-time favorite Aretha Franklin album of greatest hits: " Aretha's Gold ". There's something in this fabulous album for everyone.

I would like to dedicate my favorite song on this album to all the trump supporters out there and it goes something like this:

 

" You're a no-good Heartbreaker,

   You're a Liar and a Cheat

   I don't know why

   I let you do these things to me

  My friends keep telling me

   That you ain't no good

   But oh, they don't know

 I'd leave you if I could

I guess I'm uptight

And I'm stuck like glue

Cause I ain't never,

I ain't never,

I ain't never, no, no

Loved a man, the way that I, I love you. "  ( Ronnie Shannon)

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Bogie56 said:

Klobuchar comes across as a cliched politician to me and as exciting as a wet rag.  A harmless one though.  I guess that is the appeal to some who quake in their boots at the thought of change.

Well, not every candidate can eat a salad with a comb. That's about the only interesting thing I've ever heard about her.

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1 hour ago, TheCid said:

I do agree that Klobuchar is not very exciting, but then the Titanic was exciting - for a while.  Klobuchar has been very successful in Minn. politics and in the US Senate.  She may be a cliched politician, but she gets things done.

I agree;

Note that we have the most exciting President of all time;   how is that working out????

(rhetorical question folks!).

 

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I like Klobuchar too. I would like to see a Biden/Klobuchar ticket. I used to like Castro, but not after his ageist remarks. (I didn't watch the debate but I saw the clip). It seems that the only group that it's open season on, is seniors.

I think the nastiest guy in politics is the guy who ran against Dianne Feinstein in the CA Democratic Primary: Kevin de Leon, whose only issue against Feinstein was her age.

 

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1 hour ago, Swithin said:

I like Klobuchar too. I would like to see a Biden/Klobuchar ticket. I used to like Castro, but not after his ageist remarks. (I didn't watch the debate but I saw the clip). It seems that the only group that it's open season on, is seniors.

In reference to my earlier post with my friends stating that they felt that Sanders and Biden are "too old", they really mean not healthy enough rather than just elderly. Sanders had an obvious cold so he sounded worse than usual, and Biden, with his bleeding eye the other night at the climate debate, as well as his somewhat discombobulated speaking manner and increasing verbal gaffes, came across as infirm.

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1 hour ago, Swithin said:

I think the nastiest guy in politics is the guy who ran against Dianne Feinstein in the CA Democratic Primary: Kevin de Leon, whose only issue against Feinstein was her age.

 

Yea,  Dem Kevin de Leon is a scum-bag and will use anything to get ahead in politics.   His use of the race-card is something else and very similar to the Trump playbook;  E.g. like what Trump said about how Jewish people should vote,,,  de Leon implies Hispanics,,, well,   if they are really Hispanics,,, they must vote for him.

 

 

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