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TheCid

2020 Election

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"You don't want to elect a President that is being investigated."

- Donald J. Trump, 2015

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Since the Republican Party is essentially eliminating almost all state Republican Presidential Primaries, how many GOP leaning independents and GOPers will vote in the Democratic Presidential Primaries.  May be interesting.

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Electoral College Overwhelmingly Favors Republicans,

"....GOP candidates for president can expect to be victorious in 65 percent of future presidential elections and University of Texas at Austin researchers analyzed

why "inversions" — where the popular vote winner loses the overall election — has happened twice since 2000.

The study authors found that the Electoral College's winner-take-all approach favors Republicans and has pushed them to victories in 2000 and 2016.

The researchers concluded that inversions will occur more and more in 2020 and beyond unless a policy change completely dissolves, rather than reforms, the Electoral College........

 

"Feasible policy changes—including awarding each state's Electoral College ballots proportionally between parties rather than awarding all to the state winner—could substantially reduce inversion probabilities, though not in close elections," the study authors proposed.

A constitutional amendment would be required in order to abolish the Electoral College entirely, setting up the highly improbable situation......

https://www.newsweek.com/abolish-electoral-college-favors-republicans-over-democrats-future-presidential-elections-study-1464834?utm_campaign=NewsweekTwitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter

:unsure:

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21 hours ago, mr6666 said:

Electoral College Overwhelmingly Favors Republicans,

"....GOP candidates for president can expect to be victorious in 65 percent of future presidential elections and University of Texas at Austin researchers analyzed

why "inversions" — where the popular vote winner loses the overall election — has happened twice since 2000.

The study authors found that the Electoral College's winner-take-all approach favors Republicans and has pushed them to victories in 2000 and 2016.

The researchers concluded that inversions will occur more and more in 2020 and beyond unless a policy change completely dissolves, rather than reforms, the Electoral College........

 

"Feasible policy changes—including awarding each state's Electoral College ballots proportionally between parties rather than awarding all to the state winner—could substantially reduce inversion probabilities, though not in close elections," the study authors proposed.

A constitutional amendment would be required in order to abolish the Electoral College entirely, setting up the highly improbable situation......

https://www.newsweek.com/abolish-electoral-college-favors-republicans-over-democrats-future-presidential-elections-study-1464834?utm_campaign=NewsweekTwitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter

:unsure:

The article also states that it has only happened four times since 1836 and that it could swing to a Democratic advantage at some point.  [As it has in the past.]

Regardless, the EC is with us forever.  Another solution is to eliminate voter suppression as currently performed by the Republican Parties that control the counties and states.

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Democrats Should Heed the Lessons of 2004

To face a monstrous Republican seeking re-election, Democrats chose a moderate, ‘electable’ Senate lifer over an insurgent from Vermont.

What about this year?

 

"........the Democratic Party leadership swore to do whatever it took to prevent that outcome from happening twice. As Democratic primary season kicked off in 2003, they dedicated themselves to the pursuit of “electability.”

There were other players in that Democratic primary, but the essential drama unfolded between the eventual candidate and a politician from Vermont who had a reputation for yelling a lot and an ambitious plan for a dramatic expansion of publicly provisioned health care, which he called “a moral imperative.” That plan, he noted, could be paid for in part by repealing some highly unpopular, recently enshrined tax cuts.

That was Howard Dean, in case you were wondering.

Dean had a zealous grassroots organizing network, buoyed by youthful organizers. He had a major advantage in smaller-dollar fundraising thanks to his embrace of internet-based donations.

Opposite him was John Kerry, a war hero whose career in politics had been largely inoffensive to that point. He had that elusive “it” factor the Democratic leadership identified as electability, which translated into muted policy ambitions and a biographical backstory that might endear him to Republican swing voters if they squinted hard enough. That all dovetailed conveniently with the Democratic Leadership Council’s mantra of “moderate, moderate, moderate.”

So Democratic leadership pushed to elevate Kerry, while stamping out Dean’s insurgency. They ran to the middle, hoping to peel off elusive centrist Bush voters....

 

In 2004, Democratic leadership, when facing down a bellicose demagogue with a cabal of criminals working for him, shelved a popular, medical-care-driven agenda backed by a network of grassroots organizers in favor of electability, and an “Anybody But” war cry. What proceeded was catastrophic, not just for the Democratic Party, but for the country.

If you think Trump is bad in term one, a second term would be profoundly emboldening. ...

 

2004, whose postmortem called for more ambitious progressive policy and the abandonment of electability as a guiding principle, may be the most relevant to our current day. Unfortunately, Democrats may prove unwilling to learn the lesson. "

https://prospect.org/power/democrats-should-heed-the-lessons-of-2004/

:unsure:

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15 hours ago, mr6666 said:

Democrats Should Heed the Lessons of 2004

To face a monstrous Republican seeking re-election, Democrats chose a moderate, ‘electable’ Senate lifer over an insurgent from Vermont.

What about this year?

 

"........the Democratic Party leadership swore to do whatever it took to prevent that outcome from happening twice. As Democratic primary season kicked off in 2003, they dedicated themselves to the pursuit of “electability.”

There were other players in that Democratic primary, but the essential drama unfolded between the eventual candidate and a politician from Vermont who had a reputation for yelling a lot and an ambitious plan for a dramatic expansion of publicly provisioned health care, which he called “a moral imperative.” That plan, he noted, could be paid for in part by repealing some highly unpopular, recently enshrined tax cuts.

That was Howard Dean, in case you were wondering.

Dean had a zealous grassroots organizing network, buoyed by youthful organizers. He had a major advantage in smaller-dollar fundraising thanks to his embrace of internet-based donations.

Opposite him was John Kerry, a war hero whose career in politics had been largely inoffensive to that point. He had that elusive “it” factor the Democratic leadership identified as electability, which translated into muted policy ambitions and a biographical backstory that might endear him to Republican swing voters if they squinted hard enough. That all dovetailed conveniently with the Democratic Leadership Council’s mantra of “moderate, moderate, moderate.”

So Democratic leadership pushed to elevate Kerry, while stamping out Dean’s insurgency. They ran to the middle, hoping to peel off elusive centrist Bush voters....

 

In 2004, Democratic leadership, when facing down a bellicose demagogue with a cabal of criminals working for him, shelved a popular, medical-care-driven agenda backed by a network of grassroots organizers in favor of electability, and an “Anybody But” war cry. What proceeded was catastrophic, not just for the Democratic Party, but for the country.

If you think Trump is bad in term one, a second term would be profoundly emboldening. ...

 

2004, whose postmortem called for more ambitious progressive policy and the abandonment of electability as a guiding principle, may be the most relevant to our current day. Unfortunately, Democrats may prove unwilling to learn the lesson. "

https://prospect.org/power/democrats-should-heed-the-lessons-of-2004/

:unsure:

Bull.....  The scenario is NO where near similar to what we face today.  John Kerry was perceived by many as a MASSACHUSETTS LIBERAL.  Because he was one.  One reason why so many veterans and veteran organizations were so strongly opposed to him, even though he was a decorated Vietnam veteran.  In addition to being the face of the anti-war movement in the late 60's and 70's.

On the other hand, Howard Dean was perceived as being out of control and out of touch with reality.  His rant was just the capstone to that.

In a Bush-Dean match up, it would have been no contest for Bush to win re-election in a walk.

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Read where Warren is in trouble in S.C. Dem primary, but has 14 months to pull it out.  2/3's of Dem primary voters are black and they mostly support Biden as the one who can actually defeat Trump.  However, Warren is also very religious and a member of a Missionary Baptist Church in MA.  So she may use that to appeal to S.C. blacks and then try to peel away the Evangelicals from Trump.

With no S.C. GOP primary, many independents and GOPers may vote in Dem primary.  It is an open primary.

Appears that Buttigieg and Klobuchar may be battling over the moderate position since Biden is slipping.  O'Rourke and his gun policies are going for the extreme left-wing anti-gun nut vote.

Sanders gets endorsement from The Squad will help him with liberal, socialist voters.  Then if he gets the nomination guarantee Dems lose big in 2020 election.  Regardless The Squad will play big in GOP advertising at all levels in 2020 elections, from counties to White House.

I think one thing that will resonate with the voters in Nov. is how the Dem candidate, whoever it may be, plans to pay for all the super expensive programs in the party platform.

If I recall correctly, the only two really big social programs in 20th century were FDR's New Deal and LBJ's Great Society.  The Great Society pales in comparison to the New Deal and was seriously undercut by funding the war in Vietnam and the Cold War.

The New Deal succeeded, or was accepted, because the country was in the worst crisis since 1776, if not greatest of all.  Even then Congress and/or the Supreme Court voided parts of it.

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I don't like any of them but what they are proposing isn't even close to the New Deal. The New Deal had like only a 70% privatization rate across the country.

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16 hours ago, Gershwin fan said:

I don't like any of them but what they are proposing isn't even close to the New Deal. The New Deal had like only a 70% privatization rate across the country.

Not sure what you mean by "The New Deal had like only a 70% privatization rate across the country."

It did cause me to re-read my post though.

I should have added that neither the New Deal nor the Great Society called for the massive changes that the "progressives" want.  The New Deal was more acceptable because of the Great Depression and the far, far worse economic issues.

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Rep. Tulsi Gabbard gets 2020 endorsement from David Duke

Democratic presidential hopeful Rep. Tulsi Gabbard has apparently gotten an endorsement she said she can do without — from former KK Klan leader David Duke.

The 68-year-old white supremacist and former GOP Louisiana state senator plastered a banner on his Twitter page prominently featuring a photograph of the Hawaiian lawmaker, the New York Post reported.

“Tulsi Gabbard for President,” it blares, along with the tagline: “Finally a candidate who will actually put America First rather than Israel First!”

“Tulsi Gabbard is currently the only Presidential candidate who doesn’t want to send White children off to die for Israel,” the former Grand Wizard tweeted his more than 50,000 followers along with a photograph of Gabbard meeting a US service member and his child.

But Gabbard wasted no time in lashing back at Duke and rejected his backing.

“I have strongly denounced David Duke’s hateful views and his so-called ‘support’ multiple times in the past, and reject his support,” she told The Post in a statement Tuesday.

“Publicizing Duke’s so-called ‘endorsement’ is meant to distract from my message: that I will end regime-change wars, work to end the new cold war and take us away from the precipice of a nuclear war, which is a greater danger now than ever before.”

Gabbard — who is of Samoan heritage — served with the US Army National Guard in Iraq from 2004 to 2005 and was first elected to office in Hawaii in 2013.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/0ec7afdc-eb7a-31c8-be08-a0bc5a78e209/rep.-tulsi-gabbard-gets-2020.html

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Trump to attend the Second Step Criminal Justice Forum at historically black Benedict College in Columbia, S.C. on Oct. 25.  It is a two day event and the next day several Democratic candidates for president will attend.

The attendees are supposed to present specific and measurable proposals for improving the criminal justice system.

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Russian Media Cheers Trump’s Moves in Syria: ‘Putin Won the Lottery!’

For Russia, Trump’s presidency is a gift that keeps on giving. The Kremlin’s propagandists see no acceptable alternative among any viable presidential candidates in 2020.

 

...... .Trump’s mistake in Syria is the unexpected ‘lottery win’ that further strengthened Moscow’s position in the Middle East and undermined America’s prestige as a rational political player and a reliable partner.”   ..

“All of this benefits the Russian Federation,” Yusin marveled. “You know, I’ve been watching Trump’s behavior lately and get seditious thoughts: maybe he really is a Russian agent? He is laboring so hard to strengthen the international image of Russia in general—and Putin in particular...In this situation, Americans—to their chagrin and our enjoyment—are the only losers in this situation.” .....

“It’s been a long time since America has been humiliated this way,” gloated political analyst Mikhail Sinelnikov-Orishak, “They ran away in shame! I can’t recall such a scenario since Vietnam.” ....

has hurt the image and standing of the United States: “America betrayed everyone...Trump also strengthened the anti-American mood in Turkey, when he promised to destroy the Turkish economy.” ......

“I look at Trump and think: ‘May God grant him good health—and another term. This is a great situation for Russia...We can practically sit back and reap the dividends from what others are doing...

Meanwhile, Trump is yet to make a single good deal, which is why I wish him good health, may he flourish and get re-elected...Trump is a great candidate. I applaud him...

For America, this isn’t a very good president.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-media-cheers-trump-moves-in-syria-putin-won-the-lottery

 

- if Dems don't use some of THESE QUOTES against Trump, they're CRAZY?!  :rolleyes:

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1 hour ago, mr6666 said:

Russian Media Cheers Trump’s Moves in Syria: ‘Putin Won the Lottery!’

For Russia, Trump’s presidency is a gift that keeps on giving. The Kremlin’s propagandists see no acceptable alternative among any viable presidential candidates in 2020.

 

...... .Trump’s mistake in Syria is the unexpected ‘lottery win’ that further strengthened Moscow’s position in the Middle East and undermined America’s prestige as a rational political player and a reliable partner.”   ..

“All of this benefits the Russian Federation,” Yusin marveled. “You know, I’ve been watching Trump’s behavior lately and get seditious thoughts: maybe he really is a Russian agent? He is laboring so hard to strengthen the international image of Russia in general—and Putin in particular...In this situation, Americans—to their chagrin and our enjoyment—are the only losers in this situation.” .....

“It’s been a long time since America has been humiliated this way,” gloated political analyst Mikhail Sinelnikov-Orishak, “They ran away in shame! I can’t recall such a scenario since Vietnam.” ....

has hurt the image and standing of the United States: “America betrayed everyone...Trump also strengthened the anti-American mood in Turkey, when he promised to destroy the Turkish economy.” ......

“I look at Trump and think: ‘May God grant him good health—and another term. This is a great situation for Russia...We can practically sit back and reap the dividends from what others are doing...

Meanwhile, Trump is yet to make a single good deal, which is why I wish him good health, may he flourish and get re-elected...Trump is a great candidate. I applaud him...

For America, this isn’t a very good president.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-media-cheers-trump-moves-in-syria-putin-won-the-lottery

 

- if Dems don't use some of THESE QUOTES against Trump, they're CRAZY?!  :rolleyes:

Anyone that believes Dems using quotes from Russians is a sound political strategy for attacking Trump is CRAZY!!!

Just use the facts,  but NOT the quotes.     

 

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Tim Ryan: "I'm announcing today that I am withdrawing from the Presidential campaign... I’ll be returning home to my family and friends and community in Ohio to run for re-election for my Congressional seat." http://hill.cm/C18p4AK
=============================
 
-Well, there's ONE Down......... :unsure:
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The  2019 elections may not be a precursor to 2020, but they look good for Dems. BUT, these are state elections and not national ones.  You can't really say they were a vote for or against Trump, although he probably had a negative effect in Virginia -maybe.  He himself made the KY governor's race a vote on him - and lost.  Roll Call says that Trump saved Bevins from an even worse disaster (assuming he in fact has lost).

The one indication is that the Dems in some states were fired up and if they can hold on to that until Nov. 2020 it will be good for them.

The Republican incumbent governor lost in KY (so far), but he was very unpopular and other Republicans did well in the elections.  The GOPers still control the KY legislature. Trump had campaigned for Bevin, so this is a loss for Trump in that regard.

“If you lose, they’re going to say Trump suffered the greatest defeat in the history of the world,” Trump said. “You can’t let that happen to me!”  Trump.

The NRA lost in VA and the state will probably enact more stringent gun restrictions, although they are fairly weak now.

"In 2018, a district court in Virginia ruled the old [district] maps an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, and new maps fairer to Democrats were drawn at the beginning of the year (these maps may have also helped put them over the top in Tuesday’s election). To solidify that, the US Supreme Court upheld the lower court ruling this summer.

It will be interesting to see how the Dem legislature redraws the maps in 2021 now that they are in control.

https://www.vox.com/2019/11/5/20949741/winners-and-losers-election-night-2019

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Appears Jeff Sessions is going to run for his former US Senate seat.  That does not bode well for the current Dem senator from Alabama.  He got in by a fluke anyway.

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3 hours ago, TheCid said:

Appears Jeff Sessions is going to run for his former US Senate seat.  That does not bode well for the current Dem senator from Alabama.  He got in by a fluke anyway.

Trump love is strong in Alabama and since Trump has dumped all over Sessions,  I wonder if that tainted the view of Trump supports towards Sessions (who was well liked in the state prior to joining the Trump admin).

I assume there will be a GOP primary (i.e. others are running) but in a contest between Moore and Sessions,  I assume Trump doesn't endorse either one and therefore Sessions should come out on top.   In the General,  Trump would likely assist Sessions, both putting the past behind them.  (but with Trump one never knows!).

 

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5 minutes ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Trump love is strong in Alabama and since Trump has dumped all over Sessions,  I wonder if that tainted the view of Trump supports towards Sessions (who was well liked in the state prior to joining the Trump admin).

I assume there is a GOP primary,  but in a contest between Moore and Sessions,  I assume Trump doesn't endorse either one and therefore Sessions should come out on top.   In the General,  Trump would likely assist Sessions, both putting the past behind them.  (but with Trump one never knows!).

 

As long as they kiss his tush, Trump will bring him into the fold as he did "Lyin" Ted Cruz.

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·
51m
 
After announcing in March he wouldn't launch a White House campaign, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is "increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well positioned" to defeat President Trump, according to a statement.

Former New York Mayor Bloomberg Re-Opens Door To 2020 Presidential Run

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-_-
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13 hours ago, mr6666 said:
 
·
51m
 
After announcing in March he wouldn't launch a White House campaign, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is "increasingly concerned that the current field of candidates is not well positioned" to defeat President Trump, according to a statement.

Former New York Mayor Bloomberg Re-Opens Door To 2020 Presidential Run

  •  
 
-_-

Saw a clip on TV this morning.  Bloomberg is assuming Dem primary voters are looking for someone else and that probably is not the case.  

Also, previous candidates who entered late in primary runs were very unsuccessful.

They also pointed out that the national polls which show Biden, Warren and Sanders ahead of Trump essentially useless.  The polls in the six swing states that gave Trump the presidency show Trump ahead of Warren and Sanders and only 1% down from Biden.

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25 minutes ago, Bogie56 said:
 
9ef9972c3aacfc1b85e6097ebec53c3f-500-0-70-8-PW7SBWQB34I6VA2BZQ644UXH3Y.jpg
 
 
 

 I am not a fan of Trump nor Sessions and would gladly see Sessions and Trump lose in 2020, but the truth is the truth.

Total misinterpretation of the ad by the left-leaning media.  This is why people do not trust the Washington Post, CNN, MSNBC, et. al.  One commentator even took Sessions to task for his standing in front of a white screen.  Actually the screen had a logo of Sessions for Senate on it and then camera zoomed in for a close-up.  There were also derogatory comments about the way he looks.  Heh, he ain't a Hollywood movie star - that's what the guy looks like and talks.

Jeff Sessions, like Lindsay Graham, knows damn well which state he is running for election in.  For Sessions, it is super RED Alabama.

You may not like them but he is basically stating the facts.  He was an early endorser of Trump and a member of his administration.  Why should he write a "Tell All" book at this stage of his career?  He would hurt himself terribly in Alabama and he would have to admit his part in it all.

He still has the win the Republican Primary in Alabama before the election even becomes an issue.  Don't forget, with all his faults (and they are many) Roy Moore still won the GOP Primary to replace Sessions.  Doug Jones (Dem) only got 49.97% of the popular vote in 2017 against 48.34% for Moore.  The Republicans did not even want Moore to run.

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Jeff Sessions is an intellectual dullard, a backwards fundamentalist scumbag and an all-around stain on American politics. And that was before Trump was elected. Afterward, he's proven himself to be a spineless coward, a craven opportunist, and a pathetic bootlicker. 

All of which makes him perfect to represent Alabama and the Republican party.

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7 minutes ago, LawrenceA said:

Jeff Sessions is an intellectual dullard, a backwards fundamentalist scumbag and an all-around stain on American politics. And that was before Trump was elected. Afterward, he's proven himself to be a spineless coward, a craven opportunist, and a pathetic bootlicker. 

All of which makes him perfect to represent Alabama and the Republican party.

Won't disagree with any of that, but the left leaning media's over reaching reviews of his ad are too extreme.

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