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TheCid

2020 Election

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10 minutes ago, Vautrin said:

Iowa may be a red state, but it's not completely out of reach for Democratic presidential candidates.

Both Obama and Clinton won Iowa twice. Gore won it and even lowly Dukakis won it.

And LBJ got around 62% of the vote in Iowa in 1964.

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1 hour ago, Princess of Tap said:

And LBJ got around 62% of the vote in Iowa in 1964.

True, but the real landslide Lyndon also won about 60% of the vote nationwide. The surprise for me is Dukakis.

He not only beat Bush in Iowa but beat him by 10 percentage points. I also noticed that Iowa has been bleeding

electoral votes over the last fifty years or so.

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16 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Like Cid said you don't have a complete grasp of America and our political system \ processes.

There is no way a Dem Presidential candidate is going to win Iowa in the general election.     Republicans have a majority of registered votes and over 60% of the state are Evangelicals. 

Dems running to become the Dem Presidential candidate are spending time and funds in Iowa because it is the first state that "votes"  (via caucuses).        Winning in Iowa during  the primary season is a lot less important for a Dem than it is a Repub,  but either way getting this first-win can propel a campaign.     The next state after Iowa is New Hampshire,  which will be a battle between the 3 north easterners, Biden, Warren and Sanders.     

 

South Carolina is another state that skews the Dem primary contests.  About 2/3's of Dem Presidential Primary voters are black.  However, the GOPers have won the presidency ever since Kennedy except for Jimmy Carter who was from neighboring GA.  SC did not vote for Carter when he ran for re-election though.

13 hours ago, Bogie56 said:

I can understand people voting Republican.  I cannot understand people, even from Iowa voting for the corrupt, cruel and evil Donald Trump.

That said, I understand that America is far from perfect and that a large part of its population is truly braindead.  And I mean that sincerely.  So when I say I don't understand something I am speaking from the heart.  My brain tells me that I do understand it.  There is plenty of evil in this world and millions of Americans are turning a blind eye to it right now.

Oh, and before you and Cid who you have quoted tell me that I am over the top - just take a look at some of the other people posting about Trump.  Some of them say far worse things.  I don't see Cid going after Vautrin for his comments.

 

Sure you are not talking about the recent election in UK that overwhelmingly went for Boris Johnson?

The other people who post about Trump are far more knowledgeable about American government, society, religion and politics.

As for Vautin, why would I "go after him?"  Incidentally I have criticized him for not voting.

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16 hours ago, Bogie56 said:

I can understand people voting Republican.  I cannot understand people, even from Iowa voting for the corrupt, cruel and evil Donald Trump.

Sorry I still don't understand you and I don't wish to misinterpret you.      Again,  you say "I cannot understand,,,, even from Iowa",   but I explained that in my post.

A majority of voters in Iowa are Evangelical.     Their main issue is banning abortion.      As you know Trump,  with the aid of Moscow Mitch, has appointed many  uber conservative federal court justices,  as well as Supreme Court ones, that are likely to give States more control over women bodies via highly restrictive anti-abortion laws.

But I assume you know this and thus you do "understand" what drives these Evangelical fools to embrace the corrupt, cruel and evil Trump.

PS:   liberal Justice Ginsburg is sure to be replaced by the next President.     That right there is a reason enough for many evangelicals to vote for Trump.  

 

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25 minutes ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Sorry I still don't understand you and I don't wish to misinterpret you.      Again,  you say "I cannot understand,,,, even from Iowa",   but I explained that in my post.

A majority of voters in Iowa are Evangelical.     Their main issue is banning abortion.      As you know Trump,  with the aid of Moscow Mitch, has appointed many  uber conservative federal court justices,  as well as Supreme Court ones, that are likely to give States more control over women bodies via highly restrictive anti-abortion laws.

But I assume you know this and thus you do "understand" what drives these Evangelical fools to embrace the corrupt, cruel and evil Trump.

PS:   liberal Justice Ginsburg is sure to be replaced by the next President.     That right there is a reason enough for many evangelicals to vote for Trump.  

 

No doubt, your assessment of what is going and why is accurate.  I understand these things to be the case as well.

The Art of the Deal writer, Tony Schwartz was on CNN the other day and did what you're not supposed to do - he compared the Trump phenomena to that of Hitler and Nazi Germany.  He did so by describing how tens of thousands of good Germans looked the other way with regards Hitler's deplorable racist morality because they thought he was good for the country and good for them.    

When I say I don't understand this sort of thing I really mean I can hardly believe it is happening in modern day America.  It's hard to understand because it seems completely alien and incredibly WRONG.

There are hundreds of posts already about Trump's cruelty and racism so I don't have to bring up examples.  That said ... Stephen Miller?   Trump's go-to guy?  Just despicable.

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On 12/24/2019 at 1:25 PM, Bogie56 said:

No doubt, your assessment of what is going and why is accurate.  I understand these things to be the case as well.

The Art of the Deal writer, Tony Schwartz was on CNN the other day and did what you're not supposed to do - he compared the Trump phenomena to that of Hitler and Nazi Germany.  He did so by describing how tens of thousands of good Germans looked the other way with regards Hitler's deplorable racist morality because they thought he was good for the country and good for them.    

When I say I don't understand this sort of thing I really mean I can hardly believe it is happening in modern day America.  It's hard to understand because it seems completely alien and incredibly WRONG.

There are hundreds of posts already about Trump's cruelty and racism so I don't have to bring up examples.  That said ... Stephen Miller?   Trump's go-to guy?  Just despicable.

Bogie, since out discussions after the above have been removed, can you answer these questions.

1.  With the overwhelming victory of Boris Johnson and the Conservatives and the likliehood of a quick Brexit, is there any substance to rumors that Scotland and/or Northern Ireland will leave the United Kingdom?

2.  In which part of the UK do you live?

Thanks.

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41 minutes ago, TheCid said:

Bogie, since out discussions after the above have been removed, can you answer these questions.

1.  With the overwhelming victory of Boris Johnson and the Conservatives and the likliehood of a quick Brexit, is there any substance to rumors that Scotland and/or Northern Ireland will leave the United Kingdom?

2.  In which part of the UK do you live?

Thanks.

1.  I don't have a crystal ball but the Scots and Northern Irish wanted to remain in Europe.  Boris says he won't allow a referendum though.

2.  I am not currently in the UK.  I just haven't bothered to correct you.

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One news story that isn't getting a lot of coverage is the Bernie Sanders rally held in Los Angeles with A.O.C.       A.O.C. mocked Obama and his comments advising Dems to avoid  a purity test as it relates to the Dem's running to be President.     Obama comment was basically saying:  hey progressives,   support a moderate if that is the Dem nominee.

A.O.C.   of course wants Dems to support Sanders,   and if not Sanders,   the other "progressive",  Warren.    She clearly doesn't support Biden and Mayor Pete,  the moderates.

Thus the message to Sander supporters is;   if Sanders isn't the nominee,  (or another progressive like Warren),  don't support the Dem party.       

Of course A.O.C.  can go out and support a moderate  Dem nominee but any support would appear contrived and thus might be ineffective. 

PS:  letter to the editor of the L.A. times by Sanders supporters criticized the progressive newspaper for NOT giving the rally coverage but instead having articles on Biden and Mayor Pete related to electability. 

 

    

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12 minutes ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

One news story that isn't getting a lot of coverage is the Bernie Sanders rally held in Los Angeles with A.O.C.       A.O.C. mocked Obama and his comments advising Dems to avoid  a purity test as it relates to the Dem's running to be President.     Obama comment was basically saying:  hey progressives,   support a moderate if that is the Dem nominee.

A.O.C.   of course wants Dems to support Sanders,   and if not Sanders,   the other "progressive",  Warren.    She clearly doesn't support Biden and Mayor Pete,  the moderates.

Thus the message to Sander supporters is;   if Sanders isn't the nominee,  (or another progressive like Warren),  don't support the Dem party.       

Of course A.O.C.  can go out and support a moderate  Dem nominee but any support would appear contrived and thus might be ineffective. 

PS:  letter to the editor of the L.A. times by Sanders supporters criticized the progressive newspaper for NOT giving the rally coverage but instead having articles on Biden and Mayor Pete related to electability. 

 

    

When the time comes they will all get behind the democrat nominee.  The last thing AOC or anyone else wants is Donald Trump.  But for now they want to give it a shot to try to win the nomination.    Right or wrong, Bernie thinks he has a better shot at beating Trump as he (thinks he) will mobilize voters.

This time though they must come out early for the nominee and strong.  

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8 minutes ago, Bogie56 said:

When the time comes they will all get behind the democrat nominee.  The last thing AOC or anyone else wants is Donald Trump.  But for now they want to give it a shot to try to win the nomination.    Right or wrong, Bernie thinks he has a better shot at beating Trump as he (thinks he) will mobilize voters.

This time though they must come out early for the nominee and strong.  

Of course these progressive Dems will come out and support the Dem nominee,  regardless of who it is.      The question still remains how effective such support will be. 

The key to defeating Trump is left-leaning voter turnout;    it can be difficult to motivate a progressive to get out and vote for a moderate when progressive leaders have basically stated that such moderates are not-much-different then Trump since they don't support Medicare-for-All or the New-Green-Deal, etc...

    

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2 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Thus the message to Sanders supporters is;   if Sanders isn't the nominee,  (or another progressive like Warren),  don't support the Dem party.         

Exactly what happened in 2016 with the Sanders supporters.  Their candidate did not win the nomination, so they stayed home or even voted for Trump.  So, Trump won.

1 hour ago, Bogie56 said:

When the time comes they will all get behind the democrat nominee.  The last thing AOC or anyone else wants is Donald Trump. 

They didn't do it in 2016 and they are more dug in to Progressive/socialist issues now than before.  As I noted above, Trump won in 2016 because the Sanders supporters and other progressives either didn't vote or voted for Trump.  Otherwise, Hillary Clinton would be president now.

1 hour ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Of course these progressive Dems will come out and support the Dem nominee,  regardless of who it is.      

The key to defeating Trump is left-leaning voter turnout;    it can be difficult to motivate a progressive to get out and vote for a moderate when progressive leaders have basically stated that such moderates are not-much-different then Trump since they don't support Medicare-for-All or the New-Green-Deal, etc...    

Worth repeating, they did NOT do it in 2016.  I think the Dems are more divided now than ever before and I predict more Progressives/socialists/etc. will boycott the election.

Your second statement above is the more accurate one.  Except I still believe that the independents and moderate Republicans in the center are just as important, than not more so than the "left-leaning" voters.

One thing you have to say for Obama, he knows how to get elected.  Just as Bill Clinton did.

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2 hours ago, Bogie56 said:

1.  I don't have a crystal ball but the Scots and Northern Irish wanted to remain in Europe.  Boris says he won't allow a referendum though.

2.  I am not currently in the UK.  I just haven't bothered to correct you.

Thanks.  So, you  are in an undisclosed location?

Can Boris stop a referendum?

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33 minutes ago, TheCid said:

Exactly what happened in 2016 with the Sanders supporters.  Their candidate did not win the nomination, so they stayed home or even voted for Trump.  So, Trump won.

They didn't do it in 2016 and they are more dug in to Progressive/socialist issues now than before.  As I noted above, Trump won in 2016 because the Sanders supporters and other progressives either didn't vote or voted for Trump.  Otherwise, Hillary Clinton would be president now.

Worth repeating, they did NOT do it in 2016.  I think the Dems are more divided now than ever before and I predict more Progressives/socialists/etc. will boycott the election.

Your second statement above is the more accurate one.  Except I still believe that the independents and moderate Republicans in the center are just as important, than not more so than the "left-leaning" voters.

One thing you have to say for Obama, he knows how to get elected.  Just as Bill Clinton did.

Perhaps they will learn from 2016.  Trump is no longer an unknown after all.

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19 hours ago, Bogie56 said:

Perhaps they will learn from 2016.  Trump is no longer an unknown after all.

Yes,  Trump is no longer an unknown:    that should be enough to motivate those-that-didn't-vote-in-2016 to vote for anyone-but-Trump in 2020.

 

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22 hours ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Another CNN article about A.O.C. and why she is the best thing to come along for the GOP in years.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/07/politics/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-joe-biden/index.html

Exactly.  While she is even more liberal than Sanders and Warren, in the minds of the voters, they are all the same.  Peolosi is right - it is about who wins the Electoral College.  Hopefully the DNC will have learned from their 2016 failure.

The more telling thing in the article is the increase in the number of Democrats who consider themselves "liberal."  I consider myself a moderate Democrat and AO-C, Sanders and Warren do not represent me.  There are a lot like me in those swing districts that will determine who wins the EC in Nov.

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On 12/26/2019 at 1:14 PM, jamesjazzguitar said:

Yes,  Trump is no longer an unknown:    that should be enough to motivate those-that-didn't-vote-in-2016 to vote for anyone-but-Trump in 2020.

 

I don't have the confidence that you do that they will vote.  To me, most of them are spoiled and if their guy doesn't win, they'll go home and pout again.  Hope I am wrong, but just don't see it.

As Pelosi said, it is all about who shows up to vote in the swing districts that voted for Trump in 2016 and gave him the EC.  The same thing is very possible once again.

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16 minutes ago, TheCid said:

I don't have the confidence that you do that they will vote.  To me, most of them are spoiled and if their guy doesn't win, they'll go home and pout again.  Hope I am wrong, but just don't see it.

Would that be the case for you or say, Joe Biden supporters if an Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders became the candidate by majority?  Are those 'moderate' supporters 'spoiled' as well or does the criticism just work one way?

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Bogie does have a point, TheCid...are you willing to vote for whoever the eventual candidate is, even if it's Warren or Sanders? You've previously hinted at not being willing to vote for them. If not, does that mean you are spoiled and pouting? Somehow I doubt you'd think so. 

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54 minutes ago, TheCid said:

I don't have the confidence that you do that they will vote.  To me, most of them are spoiled and if their guy doesn't win, they'll go home and pout again.  Hope I am wrong, but just don't see it.

As Pelosi said, it is all about who shows up to vote in the swing districts that voted for Trump in 2016 and gave him the EC.  The same thing is very possible once again.

I never said I have confidence they would vote,  only that their turning out is key to defeating Trump.

Predicting if someone with a spotty record of voting is going to vote in a future election is something I try not to do since I'm not very good at it.

 

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1 hour ago, LawrenceA said:

Bogie does have a point, TheCid...are you willing to vote for whoever the eventual candidate is, even if it's Warren or Sanders? You've previously hinted at not being willing to vote for them. If not, does that mean you are spoiled and pouting? Somehow I doubt you'd think so. 

And if so willing to give Trump a second term too.

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1 hour ago, LawrenceA said:

Bogie does have a point, TheCid...are you willing to vote for whoever the eventual candidate is, even if it's Warren or Sanders? You've previously hinted at not being willing to vote for them. If not, does that mean you are spoiled and pouting? Somehow I doubt you'd think so. 

Cid has answered this question as in ;   since he lives in South Carolina,    it doesn't matter how he votes;   The GOP candidate (even Trump),   will win that state.

Thus there isn't any need to focus on voter-turnout in "decided" states (same holds true for me in CA,  where Trump has zero chance of winning,   so if I vote for the libertarian candidate,   (like I did in 2016),  I'm NOT giving my vote to the other-side).  

The concern in the battle-ground states is that people like A.O.C.  are saying the Dem party is NOT a big-tent party and messaging the purity concept;    Don't support the Dem party if the candidate is from the establishment.

 

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1 minute ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

Cid has answered this question as in ;   since he lives in South Carolina,    it doesn't matter how he votes;   The GOP candidate (even Trump),   will win that state.

Thus there isn't any need to focus on voter-turnout in "decided" states (same holds true for me in CA,  where Trump has zero chance of winning,   so if I vote for the libertarian candidate,   (like I did in 2016),  I'm NOT giving my vote to the other-side).  

The concern in the battle-ground states is that people like A.O.C.  are saying the Dem party is NOT a big-tent party and messaging the purity concept;    Don't support the Dem party if the candidate is from the establishment.

Yes, but could there not be others with The Cid's point of view residing in those battleground states? Those who will only vote for Biden or Klobuchar, but if they aren't the candidate, then they will "go home and pout"? The point being that the party's divisions go both ways.

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12 minutes ago, LawrenceA said:

Yes, but could there not be others with The Cid's point of view residing in those battleground states? Those who will only vote for Biden or Klobuchar, but if they aren't the candidate, then they will "go home and pout"? The point being that the party's divisions go both ways.

Solid point;  so what we don't know is which is the more stubborn;  progressives or moderate Dems?   (stubborn being if their candidate (or another progressive or moderate), isn't the nominee they're more likely to NOT vote in the general).

I admit to assuming progressives are more "stubborn" based on the messaging of their main spokesperson A.O.C.   (and also others like Anita Hill,  Juan Castro,  etc..).       

But I have no "evidence" for this assumption.     So yea,   it is equally a concern that if the Dem nominee is a progressive that moderates will either sit out the general or in the worst-case vote for Trump.

 

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4 hours ago, Bogie56 said:

Would that be the case for you or say, Joe Biden supporters if an Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders became the candidate by majority?  Are those 'moderate' supporters 'spoiled' as well or does the criticism just work one way?

NO!  I think the Biden and other moderate supporters are the core of the anybody but Trump voters.  They will vote for whoever the Dem candidate is. 

I am basing this on what happened in 2016 so it is not a "one way criticism."   While we know more about Trump now, there was plenty of evidence of what kind of president he would be.  The Bernie supporters and other "liberals" still didn't vote.

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