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THE COLD, HARD MATH SAYS NETFLIX COULD CRASH 70%


JakeHolman
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Flawed business plan. Every business levels off at eventually. Did they really think their company would just rise forever ? And that it wouldn't be copied over and over and glut the market ?

Just unrealistic. Another of the many bubbles that will be bursting in the near future.

 

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4 hours ago, GGGGerald said:

Flawed business plan. Every business levels off at eventually. Did they really think their company would just rise forever ? And that it wouldn't be copied over and over and glut the market ?

Just unrealistic. Another of the many bubbles that will be bursting in the near future.

You can usually tell a Bubble, in the Bitcoin/Dot-com/Moviepass sense, when:

  • It's a New, Neato Technology that absolutely nobody outside its target users understand, and is therefore considered a "hot new market" by those afraid they'll be left behind if they don't,
  • There's usually one person--often the inventor or entrepreneur--telling everyone why it's the Future, and Too Big To Fail,
  • The more investment goes in, the more the industries believe, oh well, it'll penetrate our society just like the Internet and Uber, and now we'll have to shape our future modern way of life around it, and start investing in other connected industries that take its success for granted before any results show up,
  • Investors start losing reasons to invest in anything else, since, well, anything else is outdated now!
  • A few industry naysayers start saying "Um, where will all this money we're going to get be COMING from?..." and are quickly shouted down as "jealous" of the new industry's success, because they're "too nostalgic" for the old days and are secretly afraid of being left behind.

I don't know whether to categorize Reed Hastings' delusions-of-grandeur for Netflix as just a "Boom" or a "Bubble" (depending on how crazy the tech-illiterate industry went for it), so I can't tell whether their own Bust just officially went Pop.  It's not a "pop" in the Mortgage Meltdown house-of-cards sense that everything's going to come toppling down tomorrow, but at least it's going to take the bloom off the "Why isn't Netflix getting Oscars?" discussion, or the "Oh well, at this rate, theaters will be obsolete in three years, now that everyone's staying home" future-fawning.

It's always something from the real world that happens at the last minute, and like Tony Soprano says, you never hear it coming...

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