Ultra early 2019 Oscar tracking???

[spence]

MI know what your thinkin' it's still far too premature to predict the possible leading contenders for THE 92nd ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS (AMPAS)

But believe it or not many sites have started & weeks ago. So I'd join-in & have some fun forecasting who and what may be in THE GOLDEN RACE???  Besides it's always been more fun for this pundit to predict the noms VS actual winners  Marks my 38th year handicapping

(NOTE: Of course all subject to change this early, but per usual it can be a great comment post & give fans a shot at listing what new releases may be nommed this year?)

2019 OSCARS-(Don't know if its going to make the end of this yr but the brand new AMPAS headquarters & library-(looks like something out if Blade Runner or Star Wars & cost $338m) was listed fir almot a year as opening)

BEST PICTURE-(will likely be 8 to 10 again)???   *-denotes poss early leader?

*The Irishman*-(will easily lead the field with a dozen or more nods)

The Joker

Little Women

The Marriage Story

*1917

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

Richard Jewell

& The Two-Popes

 

Best Actor?

Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory

Leonard DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Adam Driver, Marriage Story

*Jaoquin Phoenix, The Joker-(BLOW OUT!)

& Jonathan Pryce, The Two-Popes

SPOILER: Robert De Niro in The Irishman

 

BEST ACTRESS???

Cynthia Erivo, Harriet

Scarlett Johanssen, Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan, Little Women

Charlize Theron, Bombshell

& *Renee Zellweger,  Judy

SPOILER: Lupita N'Yongo, Us

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR???

Tom Hanks in A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Anthony Hopkins, The Two-Popes

Al Pacino, the Irishman

Joe Pesci,  The Irishman

*Brad Pitt, Once Upon a time in Hollywood

SPOILER: Willem Dafoe in The Lighthouse

 

  SUPPORTING ACTRESS???

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell

*Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Nicole Kidman, Bombshell

Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

SPOILER: Scarlett Johnsson in JoJo Rabbit

 

& BEST DIRECTOR???

Noah Baumbach for Marriage Story

*Boon Jong Ho, Parasite

*Sam Mendes, 1917

*Martin Scorsese for The Irishman*

 Quentin Tarentino for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

SPOILER: Greta Gerwig for Little Women

 

^^ just for fun & my fellow motion picture score fans

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE???

Joker

*1917

Little Women

The Marriage Story

SW (John Williams at age 87)

 

 

 

Love covering motion picture scores but again too early, though I see where both Randy Newman may be pitted against Thomas Newman for Marriage Story & 1917  Thomas has yet to score an Oscar?

 

Globe nods are history & SAG tomorrow which since '94 are the better indicator of what Oscar may do nowadays

 

Sure wish and had hoped other TCM-ITE'S had given their own predix again though?  Even if it's just BP

 

THANK YOU

 

(OSCAR ALERT: Hollywood as most know always adored costume dramas, so don't underestimate Downton Abbey & of course The Two Popes)

& official nominees to be announced January 13th, 2020 & Oscars scheduled to be presented on Feb. 9th once again at The Dolby Theatre on Hollywood, Blvd (680l H. Blvd) AKA: Hollywood & Highland

I've seen all the poss BP contenders trailers, trust me a few are very strong  man, they are really hiding THE IRISHMAN?

Of them The Irishman, Joker, Ford vs. Ferrari may be the most powerful to date & I feel it me duty to go & see-(likely next February) The Two-Pope's, due to me rating *Hopkins 5th all-time finest actor yet

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[spence]

Early buzz on Cats is not say a *Chicago or La La Land but still may earn most overall technical nominations?

(OSCAR TRIVIA: How many musicals have won BP?)

[CinemaInternational]

tracking is difficult in advance. Its a guarantee every Oscar year that at least one film will overperform expectations, while another will crash and burn unexpectedly. That said, with Hollywood the way it is now, the field of potential nominees is much samller, so you can arrange a list like this by studio and map out most of your possible contenders:

Netflix
The Irishman
Marriage Story
The Laundromat
The Two Popes
The King
the Last Thing He Wanted

Columbia
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women

Universal
1917
Us
Cats
Queen and Slim

Warner Bros.
Joker
The Goldfinch
The Good Liar
Motherless Brooklyn
Just Mercy

Focus Features
Harriet
Downton Abbey
Dark Waters

Fox Searchlight
Jojo Rabbit
A Hidden Life
Lucy in the Sky

A24
The Farewell
The Lighthouse
Uncut Gems

20th Century Fox
Ford Versus Ferrari
Ad Astra

TriStar
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Neon
Parasite
Clemency

Sony Pictures Classics
Pain and Glory

Roadside Attractions
Judy

Paramount
Rocketman
Gemini Man

Disney
Toy Story 4

Amazon
The Report
the Aeronauts

United Artists
Booksmart

That's pretty much what the lineups will be made of. it's hard to say what will win Picture at this point with the changing face of academy voters.  As for acting winners, at this point I would guess: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Laura Dern (Marriage Story) Although Pitt won before for producing 12 Years a Slave, all four would be first time acting winners.

Also, keep an eye on Maggie Smith. If she gets nominated for Downton Abbey, she will shatter a long-held academy record for acting nominations over the longest span of time.

[spence]

2 hours ago, CinemaInternational said:

tracking is difficult in advance. Its a guarantee every Oscar year that at least one film will overperform expectations, while another will crash and burn unexpectedly. That said, with Hollywood the way it is now, the field of potential nominees is much samller, so you can arrange a list like this by studio and map out most of your possible contenders:

Netflix
The Irishman
Marriage Story
The Laundromat
The Two Popes
The King
the Last Thing He Wanted

Columbia
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women

Universal
1917
Us
Cats
Queen and Slim

Warner Bros.
Joker
The Goldfinch
The Good Liar
Motherless Brooklyn
Just Mercy

Focus Features
Harriet
Downton Abbey
Dark Waters

Fox Searchlight
Jojo Rabbit
A Hidden Life
Lucy in the Sky

A24
The Farewell
The Lighthouse
Uncut Gems

20th Century Fox
Ford Versus Ferrari
Ad Astra

TriStar
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Neon
Parasite
Clemency

Sony Pictures Classics
Pain and Glory

Roadside Attractions
Judy

Paramount
Rocketman
Gemini Man

Disney
Toy Story 4

Amazon
The Report
the Aeronauts

United Artists
Booksmart

That's pretty much what the lineups will be made of. it's hard to say what will win Picture at this point with the changing face of academy voters.  As for acting winners, at this point I would guess: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Laura Dern (Marriage Story) Although Pitt won before for producing 12 Years a Slave, all four would be first time acting winners.

Also, keep an eye on Maggie Smith. If she gets nominated for Downton Abbey, she will shatter a long-held academy record for acting nominations over the longest span of time.

than you and very intelligent analysis

[spence]

though early can you see hanks in support?

[EricJ]

12 hours ago, CinemaInternational said:

tracking is difficult in advance. Its a guarantee every Oscar year that at least one film will overperform expectations, while another will crash and burn unexpectedly. That said, with Hollywood the way it is now, the field of potential nominees is much samller, so you can arrange a list like this by studio and map out most of your possible contenders:

Most of us gave up starry-eyed pre-release Oscar predictions some time after our junior-high love affair with cineplex movies--And that was back when they were still five-nomination awards, and not the meaningless voter-distorted nine-nomination awards we have today.

The cold water that got us out of the addiction created terms for the SPECIFIC kind of Oscar-Bait that ultimately comes up with a bare hook:

1. "This year's 'Beloved'" - The movie with the high-profile book source, the Oscar-worthy cast, and the controversial subject matter, that couldn't even get an audience to look in its direction.
2. "This year's 'Green Mile'" - The movie with the assembled spare parts of several previous winners (Tom Hanks, in another Frank Darabont prison story by Stephen King!), that's groomed for Oscar competition literally from the moment it's announced, and pre-reserved reservations in the major categories that...the voters soon wish they'd left open after seeing the movie.
3. "This year's 'Nine'" - The unkillable belief that ANY major musical released during the Christmas season is a surefire sweeper, because nobody still remembers why Chicago got Best Picture.  (Okay, maybe a little dated, if you'd prefer "This year's 'Into the Woods'" or "This year's 'The Greatest Showman'".)
4. "This year's 'The Postman'" - The belief that any strong title with a collection of past-winner pedigree talent must not only win, but sweep the awards in Picture, Director, and/or Actor, pick a minimum of two...And then the movie opens.
5. "This year's 'Catch Me If You Can'" - The still unexplainable superstition that if Martin Scorsese or Steven Spielberg makes a movie with Leo DiCaprio, it will be the unstoppable awards juggernaut that "The Departed" was, solely for that reason.  Even if, yes, the movie happens to be "Wolf of Wall Street" or "Gangs of New York".
6. "This year's 'Stan & Ollie'" - The belief that any historical biopic performance must mandatorily net a nomination for the actor, if not win.  Why?  No one quite remembers.

You'll notice most of these terms are from the 90's.  There may be more current metaphors, but that was about when I gave up.  It's just one more step in growing up.  😞

[spence]

6 hours ago, EricJ said:

Most of us gave up starry-eyed pre-release Oscar predictions some time after our junior-high love affair with cineplex movies--And that was back when they were still five-nomination awards, and not the meaningless voter-distorted nine-nomination awards we have today.

The cold water that got us out of the addiction created terms for the SPECIFIC kind of Oscar-Bait that ultimately comes up with a bare hook:

1. "This year's 'Beloved'" - The movie with the high-profile book source, the Oscar-worthy cast, and the controversial subject matter, that couldn't even get an audience to look in its direction.
2. "This year's 'Green Mile'" - The movie with the assembled spare parts of several previous winners (Tom Hanks, in another Frank Darabont prison story by Stephen King!), that's groomed for Oscar competition literally from the moment it's announced, and pre-reserved reservations in the major categories that...the voters soon wish they'd left open after seeing the movie.
3. "This year's 'Nine'" - The unkillable belief that ANY major musical released during the Christmas season is a surefire sweeper, because nobody still remembers why Chicago got Best Picture.  (Okay, maybe a little dated, if you'd prefer "This year's 'Into the Woods'" or "This year's 'The Greatest Showman'".)
4. "This year's 'The Postman'" - The belief that any strong title with a collection of past-winner pedigree talent must not only win, but sweep the awards in Picture, Director, and/or Actor, pick a minimum of two...And then the movie opens.
5. "This year's 'Catch Me If You Can'" - The still unexplainable superstition that if Martin Scorsese or Steven Spielberg makes a movie with Leo DiCaprio, it will be the unstoppable awards juggernaut that "The Departed" was, solely for that reason.  Even if, yes, the movie happens to be "Wolf of Wall Street" or "Gangs of New York".
6. "This year's 'Stan & Ollie'" - The belief that any historical biopic performance must mandatorily net a nomination for the actor, if not win.  Why?  No one quite remembers.

You'll notice most of these terms are from the 90's.  There may be more current metaphors, but that was about when I gave up.  It's just one more step in growing up.  😞

I love betting, predicting,etc NFL, BOXING & OF COURSE THE OSCARS  Though I agree all the way there should still be just 5 nominees   From 1931-32 until 1944 they had ten as well

[spence]

And just to compare with the possible upcoming-(noms are in early January of 2020)

below is a list of what the general moviegoing public liked best at THE MOVIES

The Top Ten Highest Grossing Films of the Year; 2019>

1st place Avenger's: End Game (Buena Vista) (made $858 million domestically)

2. The Lion King (2019 version) (BV) ($530m. to date)

3. Toy story 4 (BV/Pixar) ($431m. td)

4.  Captain Marvel (BV) ($427m.)

5th Spider Man: Far from Home (Sony) ($387m. to date)

6. Aladdin 92019) (BV) ($355m.)

7. Us (Universal) ($175m. td)

8. John Wick: Chapter 3 (LG) ($172m. td)

9. How to Train your Dragon: The Hidden World (Univ.) ($165m. td)

& 10th Fast & the Furious: Present's Hobbs & Shaw (Univ.) (%165m. td)

 

& annual $B.0$ leader:  the top ten worldwide & top 10 Adjusted next

Dwayne (The Rock) Johnson (l972-)

 

THANK YOU

[spence]

21 hours ago, CinemaInternational said:

tracking is difficult in advance. Its a guarantee every Oscar year that at least one film will overperform expectations, while another will crash and burn unexpectedly. That said, with Hollywood the way it is now, the field of potential nominees is much samller, so you can arrange a list like this by studio and map out most of your possible contenders:

Netflix
The Irishman
Marriage Story
The Laundromat
The Two Popes
The King
the Last Thing He Wanted

Columbia
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Little Women

Universal
1917
Us
Cats
Queen and Slim

Warner Bros.
Joker
The Goldfinch
The Good Liar
Motherless Brooklyn
Just Mercy

Focus Features
Harriet
Downton Abbey
Dark Waters

Fox Searchlight
Jojo Rabbit
A Hidden Life
Lucy in the Sky

A24
The Farewell
The Lighthouse
Uncut Gems

20th Century Fox
Ford Versus Ferrari
Ad Astra

TriStar
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Neon
Parasite
Clemency

Sony Pictures Classics
Pain and Glory

Roadside Attractions
Judy

Paramount
Rocketman
Gemini Man

Disney
Toy Story 4

Amazon
The Report
the Aeronauts

United Artists
Booksmart

That's pretty much what the lineups will be made of. it's hard to say what will win Picture at this point with the changing face of academy voters.  As for acting winners, at this point I would guess: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker), Cynthia Erivo (Harriet), Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood), Laura Dern (Marriage Story) Although Pitt won before for producing 12 Years a Slave, all four would be first time acting winners.

Also, keep an eye on Maggie Smith. If she gets nominated for Downton Abbey, she will shatter a long-held academy record for acting nominations over the longest span of time.

*Hopkins has been undernominated over the years?

[spence]

To quote the legendary *Gary Cooper "I Reckon' nobody has anything to say here, very strange?"

 

Hasn't anybody even watched some of the trailers, I musta seen them all a couple times to date, the pssible contenders are easy to find online

 

Sure wish I knew official nationwie release date for both 1917 7 especially the Irishman?

 

Last 2019 releases I plan to see re>

Judy-(Sept 27th)

*GFII-(though obviously not new)-(Nov. 1-4)

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Hopefully by then The Irishman

T6

& though I;m not a buff, I've gone to all 8 SW flix & hope to go & check out the 9th

 

Who agrees or plans otherwise,etc?

 

 

[spence]

Come on not 1 guess on Musicals sweeping?

(9) to date

 

How about Westerns=-(an easy one?) & War films?

[spence]

THANKS AGAIN FOR THE MARVELOUS AVATAR!

 

Is Black Rock an actual Western by the way?

Of course Broken Lance (l954) (***1/2) was/is & HWTWW (l963)  but what about it?

[jamesjazzguitar]

4 minutes ago, spence said:

THANKS AGAIN FOR THE MARVELOUS AVATAR!

 

Is Black Rock an actual Western by the way?

Of course Broken Lance (l954) (***1/2) was/is & HWTWW (l963)  but what about it?

I don't consider Bad Day at Black Rock to be a western.    Yea,  it is set in a small town in the west (CA), but otherwise there are no western themes.

But noir themes can be found in the film.

 

[spence]

2 minutes ago, jamesjazzguitar said:

I don't consider Bad Day at Black Rock to be a western.    Yea,  it is set in a small town in the west (CA), but otherwise there are no western themes.

But noir themes can be found in the film.

 

I agree, somewhat of a comparison would be is Giant also a Western?

[CinemaInternational]

On 9/7/2019 at 1:11 PM, spence said:

*Hopkins has been undernominated over the years?

Well he should have been up for 84 Charing Cross Road back in 1987, and a nomination for either The Lion in Winter or The Elephant Man would not have been amiss.

[spence]

2 hours ago, CinemaInternational said:

Well he should have been up for 84 Charing Cross Road back in 1987, and a nomination for either The Lion in Winter or The Elephant Man would not have been amiss.

Ever see The Remains of the Day from 1993? In my view he delivered o0ne of the all-time finest performances as Mr. Stevens & I usually don't care for costume dramas Most will scoff & say no Hannibal Lechter of course, magnificent role but is technically on screen about 22 minutes, like *Finch in Network he campaigned for lead actor though *Hopkins himself kept telling all that Nick Nolte in Prince of Tides was gonna take it.  On that note *Tracy was in 1936's San Francisco (M-G-M) (***1/2) only 17 minutes but was of course up for Best Actor.

Plus, how about-(I'm in the minority here I'm positive) 1984's accurate from all accounts version of The Bounty (****-stars!)  I've always felt strongly that he was robbed of what woulda been his first Oscar shot as Capt Bligh Plus, great score by *Vangelis again

& try to find another vastly underrated role &movie The World's Fastest Indian-(true story)

It's almost a tie for me who's the greatest living actor him or *D. Day-Lewis=(also in the Bounty)

[spence]

2 hours ago, CinemaInternational said:

Well he should have been up for 84 Charing Cross Road back in 1987, and a nomination for either The Lion in Winter or The Elephant Man would not have been amiss.

Just to compare and see  who woulda' bumpedfor Best Actor in 87 Charing Cross Road (***1/2) (NOTE: To editors, it's eating words again fellas?)

Best Actor Oscar nominees for 1987>

*Michael Douglas in Wall Street

William hurt, Broadcast News

Jack Nicholson in Ironweed

Marcello Mastroianni, Dark Eyes

Robin Williams in Good Morning, Vietnam

 

[CinemaInternational]

21 hours ago, spence said:

Ever see The Remains of the Day from 1993? In my view he delivered o0ne of the all-time finest performances as Mr. Stevens & I usually don't care for costume dramas Most will scoff & say no Hannibal Lechter of course, magnificent role but is technically on screen about 22 minutes, like *Finch in Network he campaigned for lead actor though *Hopkins himself kept telling all that Nick Nolte in Prince of Tides was gonna take it.  On that note *Tracy was in 1936's San Francisco (M-G-M) (***1/2) only 17 minutes but was of course up for Best Actor.

Plus, how about-(I'm in the minority here I'm positive) 1984's accurate from all accounts version of The Bounty (****-stars!)  I've always felt strongly that he was robbed of what woulda been his first Oscar shot as Capt Bligh Plus, great score by *Vangelis again

& try to find another vastly underrated role &movie The World's Fastest Indian-(true story)

It's almost a tie for me who's the greatest living actor him or *D. Day-Lewis=(also in the Bounty)

Yes, have seen the Remains of the Day and out of the official academy nominees for 1993 he wiould have been my pick. (in a personal lineup, its close betweeen him and Jeff Bridges in Fearless)

21 hours ago, spence said:

Just to compare and see  who woulda' bumpedfor Best Actor in 87 Charing Cross Road (***1/2) (NOTE: To editors, it's eating words again fellas?)

Best Actor Oscar nominees for 1987>

*Michael Douglas in Wall Street

William hurt, Broadcast News

Jack Nicholson in Ironweed

Marcello Mastroianni, Dark Eyes

Robin Williams in Good Morning, Vietnam

 

Personal lineup for 1987 actor would be:
Anthony Hopkins/84 Charing Cross Road***
John Candy/Planes Trains and Automobiles
Nicolas Cage/Moonstruck
Kevin Kline/Cry Freedom
Lou Diamond Phillips/La Bamba

[spence]

2 hours ago, CinemaInternational said:

Yes, have seen the Remains of the Day and out of the official academy nominees for 1993 he wiould have been my pick. (in a personal lineup, its close betweeen him and Jeff Bridges in Fearless)

Personal lineup for 1987 actor would be:
Anthony Hopkins/84 Charing Cross Road***
John Candy/Planes Trains and Automobiles
Nicolas Cage/Moonstruck
Kevin Kline/Cry Freedom
Lou Diamond Phillips/La Bamba

Cool, so your a fellow Fearless fan, uh  wet to that on my birthday n '93 & only made $7m. & 1 Oscar shot  Rosie Perez-(s. actress) I read in Premiere yrs back *Jodie Foster was fascinated about it as well 

Just to compare the Best Actor nominees for 1993 were>

*Tom Hanks in Philadelphia (won)

Laurence Fishburne, What's Love Got to Do with It?

Anthony Hopkins, Remains of the Day

Liam Neeson in Schindler...

&  Daniel Day-Lewis, In the Name of the Father

 

Matter of fact Fearless may be his very best movie along with Last Picture Show

 

Alost 4-got did you also see *Hopkins for that year in Shadowlands?

 

*

[EricJ]

2 minutes ago, spence said:

Cool, so your a fellow Fearless fan, uh  wet to that on my birthday n '93 & only made $7m.

Well, you didn't have to be that excited about it...    😁

[CinemaInternational]

22 hours ago, spence said:

Cool, so your a fellow Fearless fan, uh  wet to that on my birthday n '93 & only made $7m. & 1 Oscar shot  Rosie Perez-(s. actress) I read in Premiere yrs back *Jodie Foster was fascinated about it as well 

Just to compare the Best Actor nominees for 1993 were>

*Tom Hanks in Philadelphia (won)

Laurence Fishburne, What's Love Got to Do with It?

Anthony Hopkins, Remains of the Day

Liam Neeson in Schindler...

&  Daniel Day-Lewis, In the Name of the Father

 

Matter of fact Fearless may be his very best movie along with Last Picture Show

 

Alost 4-got did you also see *Hopkins for that year in Shadowlands?

 

*

Did see Shadowlands as well. In some ways, 1993 was one of the last great movie years. So many meaty dramas.

[UMO1982]

The Chaperone was made in 2018 but not released until 2019. Is it eligible for this year's awards. Elizabeth McGovern and Blythe Danner were excellent.

[spence]

2 hours ago, UMO1982 said:

The Chaperone was made in 2018 but not released until 2019. Is it eligible for this year's awards. Elizabeth McGovern and Blythe Danner were excellent.

at this early stage of the annual game though it has no Oscar buzz, i'll try and look into it   Danner's never been up for one

[UMO1982]

15 minutes ago, spence said:

at this early stage of the annual game though it has no Oscar buzz, i'll try and look into it   Danner's never been up for one

 

Interesting film ostensibly about Louise Brooks, but McGovern, as the chaperone, is really the central character, and she gives a terrific performance. Danner has only one longish scene as her mother and she's great! But yes, the film sort of went unbuzzed.

 

[spence]

Another Alternate Oscar I agree with author Danny Peary is Louise Brooks winning lead actress in Panora's Box (l928)