Ultra early 2019 Oscar tracking???

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On 9/9/2019 at 6:09 PM, CinemaInternational said:

Well he should have been up for 84 Charing Cross Road back in 1987, and a nomination for either The Lion in Winter or The Elephant Man would not have been amiss.

The late John Hurt in 1980's powerful & sad Elephant Man had the showier role  Did you ever see that David Bowie also played that role on stage & with no make-up?

[CinemaInternational]

Looks like The goldfinch is the unexpected bomb. Scratch it from the roster of contenders.

[JakeHolman]

 

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20 hours ago, JakeHolman said:

 

  hade the chance to see that J. Skinner docu on Steve yet?  It's on youtube

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Hasn't anybody seen any of these projected releases yet?

[CinemaInternational]

12 hours ago, spence said:

Hasn't anybody seen any of these projected releases yet?

Not yet really. Only Toy Story 4. More will follow in the next few months.

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(NOTE: Has anybody tried locating the below & very early Best Picture contenders trailers on youtube or elsewhere yet?  Only trailer not yet available is  Little Women)

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On 9/21/2019 at 6:46 PM, CinemaInternational said:

Not yet really. Only Toy Story 4. More will follow in the next few months.

that was marvelously done huh   his originals had the heart more(still can), but now more of course is technical

[JakeHolman]

 

[EricJ]

On 9/22/2019 at 8:16 PM, spence said:

(NOTE: Has anybody tried locating the below & very early Best Picture contenders trailers on youtube or elsewhere yet?  Only trailer not yet available is  Little Women)

Why, no, as a matter of fact.  Nobody has.  

Next question?

[speedracer5]

I haven’t seen any of your best picture contenders, but I saw Renée Zellweger in “Judy,” she was fantastic! 

[JakeHolman]

 

[JakeHolman]

give me a ford every time ...

[JakeHolman]

 

[JakeHolman]

 

[JakeHolman]

 

[CinemaInternational]

For those who like to follow stars, the likely top contenders in the acting races alphabetically. The ones in italics are the ones I think will get in at this point:

Actor
Antonio Bandaras/Pain and Glory
Robert De Niro/The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio/Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver/Marriage Story
Taron Egerton/Rocketman
Eddie Murphy/Dolomite is My Name
Joaquin Phoenix/Joker
Jonathan Pryce/The Two Popes
Adam Sandler/Uncut Gems

Actress
Awkwafina/The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo/Harriet
Scarlett Johansson/Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o/Us
Saoirse Ronan/Little Women
Charlize Theron/Bombshell
Alfre Woodward/Clemency
Renee Zellweger/Judy

Supporting Actor
Alan Alda/Marriage Story
Christian Bale/Ford Vs Ferrari
Willem Dafoe/The Lighthouse
Jaime Foxx/Just Mercy
Tom Hanks/A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Anthony Hopkins/The Two Popes
Al Pacino/The Irishman
Joe Pesci/The Irishman
Brad Pitt/Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Wesley Snipes/Dolomite is My Name

Supporting Actress
Annette Bening/The Report
Penelope Cruz/Pain and Glory
Laura Dern/Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson/Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez/Hustlers
Florence Pugh/Little Women
Margot Robbie/Once upon a time in Hollywood
Maggie Smith/Downton Abbey
Meryl Streep/Little Women
Shuzhen Zhou/The Farewell

[LawrenceA]

59 minutes ago, CinemaInternational said:

Supporting Actor

Christian Bale/Ford Vs Ferrari
 

I saw an article yesterday that said that Bale will be submitted in the lead category by the studio. I'm not sure if that therefore means he has to be considered, or if the Academy can ignore it and nominate him in whatever category they see fit. 

[CinemaInternational]

Just now, LawrenceA said:

I saw an article yesterday that said that Bale will be submitted in the lead category by the studio. I'm not sure if that therefore means he has to be considered, or if the Academy can ignore it and nominate him in whatever category they see fit. 

Good question. I think he would have more of a chance in supporting, because the top 6 are pretty much set in stone in Leading, but supporting seems pretty tight though too. I have a feeling he'll just miss out either way.

Also, i don't get this whole process of sending a lead to supporting if there are two men or two women leading a film. They have been doing this since the Thelma and Louise girls split the votes in 1991, and its a bit long in the tooth by now.  People like last year's supporting winner Mahershala Ali were not supporting in the least.

There have been times where the Academy has rejecting the classification the studo originally sent, like keisha Castle-Hughes for Whale Rider back in 2003. There are probably others too.

One other thing I'm struck by this year is how many of the would be contenders have been Hollywood veterans for at least 20 years or are previous winners. There are very few up-and-comers or formerly little known names this year.

[LawrenceA]

4 minutes ago, CinemaInternational said:

One other thing I'm struck by this year is how many of the would be contenders have been Hollywood veterans for at least 20 years or are previous winners. There are very few up-and-comers or formerly little known names this year.

We're still a few months away from the end of the year, and there's usually one or two surprises left in that time frame. Maybe we'll see somebody new emerge, however unlikely. And I'm sure one or two more of the "shoo-ins" will fizzle out, like The Goldfinch. 

Yeah, everything I've heard about Ford v Ferrari says that Bale is supporting, but whether due to a contract stipulation or studio hype, they've decided to submit him as a lead. 

A couple of yours above were under my radar. Clemency and Just Mercy. I'm always glad for more recommendations.

[CinemaInternational]

Just now, LawrenceA said:

We're still a few months away from the end of the year, and there's usually one or two surprises left in that time frame. Maybe we'll see somebody new emerge, however unlikely. And I'm sure one or two more of the "shoo-ins" will fizzle out, like The Goldfinch. 

Yeah, everything I've heard about Ford v Ferrari says that Bale is supporting, but whether due to a contract stipulation or studio hype, they've decided to submit him as a lead. 

A couple of yours above were under my radar. Clemency and Just Mercy. I'm always glad for more recommendations.

True. There's always at least one film that blows out (although Cats looks like its heading that way, and Dark Waters has been very muted as well), and maybe another that surprises.

I saw some words briefly about Clint Eastwood's newest Richard Jewell (regarding the security man briefly suspected of being the bomber at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics), but that has quieted down again.  Most of the short-lived talk concerned Olivia Wilde and Kathy Bates.

Knives Out, a movie that is a satirical take on the whodonnit genre by investigating who killed wealthy Christopher plummer, is getting good notices for Ana De Armas, Daniel Craig, and Jaime Lee Curtis.

And some other films like Waves (for Sterling K. Brown) or Motherless Brooklyn (for Edward Norton) or The Good Thief (for Ian McKellan or Helen Mirren) could sweep in as well.

I have this sneaking hunch that Clemency will be the surprise nod on Oscar morning for Alfre Woodard in actress. it ticks all the boxes. Hard-hitting story, veteran actress, long overdue for a second nomination, comeback momentum.

[sewhite2000]

I liked both of your main points, Cinema International. I too miss the days when two actors of the same gender could be considered for leading category nominations from the same movie. But the studio is always wary of vote-splitting, I suppose, whether it be Midnight Cowboy or the example you gave, Thelma & Louise. It didn't seem to hurt Amadaeus, when two far-from-famous actors both got leading nominations, and one of them won. I always thought it was odd relative newcomer Al Pacino got shuttled off to the Best Supporting Actor category for the original Godfather, when his descent into the villainy that's already consumed the rest of his family is the main arc of the whole movie, and his part is much bigger than Brando's. I'm not thinking of the title of the movie with Tom Cruise and Jamie Foxx, where Foxx got a Supporting Actor nomination even though he had every bit as much screen time as Cruise. Or last year's The Favourite, which had three female roles of roughly equal size, but if I was forced to choose, I would say Emma Stone and Rachel Weiss were the two lead performers as the opponents for the queen's affection, yet Olivia Colman got the Best Actress nod (and win), and the other two were put in the supporting actress category. I hope Ford v Ferrari is a great film, and frankly I would love it if both Damon and Bale got Best Actor nominations. Or, hey, what about both DiCaprio and Pitt for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood?

I also agree that while it's fun to see a lot of longtime favorites under consideration, there's a distressing de-emphasis on new or not-well-known talent at this early stage. That may change. Awkwafina was an actress I was already tired of after seeing her in that all-female Ocean's movie and Crazy, Rich Asians, but she really moved me in The Farewell. Ditto with the actress who played the grandmother. I hope there are similar lesser-knowns out there who get a shot.

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Jake, if you check out my very early 2019 Oscar tally sheet, I had all these listed a month ago

 

But some revisions of course need to be made  Two-Popes just bleeds Oscar bait as far as nominations go

 

& there might be some given this era that find JoJo rabbit offensive?

I kinda liked Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (**1/2 at best) but most pundits have that in a big nomination way

 

But, right now THE IRISHMAN appears to be the leader momentum wise

 

Many calling it one of the greatest ever made  Phoenix is a lock to win despite backlash for the film I thought it great yet staggeringly depressing

 

Watch for it to land the most overall noms by far 11 or more

 

& Zellweger seems to have lost much hoopla already, plus already winning  Watch for Cynthia Erivo in Harriet

 

& They have been dying to give both Scorsese & Pacino 2nd statuettes for years now

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Revised and still early 2019  Oscar tracking chart   *-Indicates possible frontrunner  my 38th year handicapping

 

Likely to be 8 to 10 BP contenders again, personally I liked just 5

Best Picture?

Ford vs. Ferrari

Harriet

*The Irishman

The Joker

Little Women

The Marriage Story

1917

0nce Upon a Time in Hollywood

Parasite

& The Two-Popes

 

Best Actor?

Robert De Niro in the Irishman

Leonardo DiCaprio, 0nce Upon a Time in Hollywood

Adam Driver, Marriage Story

*Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

& Jonathan Pryce, The Two-Popes

 

Best actress?

Awkwafina, The Farewell

*Cynthia Erivu, Harriet

Scarlett Johannsen, Marriage Story

Saoirse Ronan, Little women

& *Renee Zellweger, Judy

 

Supporting Actor?

Christian Bale in Ford vs. Ferrari

Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

Anthony Hopkins, The Two-Popes

*Al Pacino, The Irishman

& Brad Pitt, 0nce Upon a Time in Hollywood

 

Supporting Actress?

Annette Bening in The Report

*Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Margot Robbie, 0nce Upon a Time in Hollywood

Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey

& Meryl Streep, Little Women

 

& Best Director?

Greta Gerwig for Little Women

Boon Jong Ho, Parasite

Sam Mendes, 1917

*Martin Scorsese,  The Irishman

& Oliver stone, 0nce Upon a Time in Hollywood

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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& saw where this is the very first time the Golden Razzie's will be on tv   Sure she's not fond of it, but it's champ is MADONNA with 5 wins, she never accepted any of them though