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Coronavirus Epidemic

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My American friend  left China for So Cal last week.   He had been living there for about 10 years playing jazz drums.     Decided this was a good time to come back to the USA.

We will be watching the super bowl together.    


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Internationalism may be hazardous to your health.

TLDR: as I write (January 30th), there is no good reason for anyone to be flying across the Pacific. The same may soon be true of the Atlantic. And certainly, no one should be flying in or out of mainland China—except via a quarantine facility.



“Substantial, draconian measures”


Ready to spend half an hour watching TV? Do you know that TV trope where the scientists, having run the numbers, come out to tell the world that—the world is doomed? Here is that press conference, IRL—January 27, 2020. Watch the whole thing.


The West’s best epidemiologists consider this Hong Kong team peers. They have the most hands-on experience in the area, having dealt with both SARS and bird flu. They are relatively immune to ideological pressure from both the West and China.


Their message is not that the coronavirus will become a pandemic—just that they do not know what would keep it from becoming a pandemic. As Dr. Leung puts it:

There is already self-sustaining transmission in quite a number of Chinese cities. Because we have at least four city clusters around the country that have extensive links with the rest of the world’s airports, then the chance of seeding sufficient numbers in overseas cities such that they would generate their own epidemics, is not trivial.

Dr. Leung says: if asymptomatic patients do not shed much virus, as in SARS, “we might have a fighting chance.” Considerable evidence of asymptomatic transmission has since appeared. (The experts are still guessing, but the virus seems to have a large “iceberg” of mild but contagious infections.)


As for his policy recommendations, Dr. Leung thinks the internal Chinese quarantine is too late. For the rest of the world, his recommendation is simple if not specific.


“Substantial, draconian measures limiting population mobility,” says Dr. Leung, Hong Kong’s top guy, both a virologist and a virus-fighter, “should be taken immediately.”


Hong Kong has no ocean borders, but has since taken Dr. Leung’s prescription. We like to remember Athens because of Pericles, not Draco. But only one of them died in a plague.

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Coronavirus: WHO declare a public health emergency


As the number of cases of novel coronavirus rises, the World Health Organization (WHO) take stock of the situation and declare an emergency.

Cases of novel coronavirus, known as 2019-nCoV, first appeared in the city of Wuhan, in China’s Hubei province. Since the initial reports in December 2019, it has spread to a number of countries.

There have now been five confirmed cases in the United States and, as of today, two cases in the United Kingdom.

Authorities have also confirmed cases of the virus in Thailand, Australia, Nepal, France, and Japan. In total, there have been 98 cases in 18 countries other than China.

Of these cases, eight have involved human-to-human transmission; these occurred in Japan, Germany, Vietnam, and the U.S.

According to the WHO, the “vast majority” of cases outside of China developed in people who had either traveled from Wuhan or contacted someone who had made that trip.

As of Thursday, 170 people have died as a result of the virus, and every death occurred in China.



In yesterday’s briefing, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the WHO, congratulated China for the swift and transparent way that the country has handled this outbreak. He explained that “In many ways, China is actually setting a new standard for outbreak response.”

Dr. Ghebreyesus continued, “Thanks to their efforts, the number of cases in the rest of the world so far has remained relatively small.”

The WHO are confident that China is doing all that it can to contain the virus. The organization’s primary concern is that the virus might spread to countries that do not have robust health systems, which could be catastrophic.

For this reason, they have decided to declare a “public health emergency of international concern over the global outbreak of novel coronavirus.”

“To the people of China and to all of those around the world who have been affected by this outbreak, we want you to know that the world stands with you. We are working diligently with national and international public health partners to bring this outbreak under control as fast as possible.”

– Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

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Coronavirus same class as plague & HIV: PM Mishustin says Russia will deport infected foreigners if necessary

Russia can isolate, quarantine, and deport foreigners struck down with the new Chinese coronavirus. The step was announced on Monday by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.

However, in the evening, Deputy Prime Minister Tatiana Galikova moved to calm fears of deportation and insisted that all foreign citizens diagnosed in Russia will be admitted for treatment until they recover completely.

She stated that after being given the all-clear, and discharged, they “will decide themselves whether to stay in our country or not.”

The country reported its first cases on Friday, raising fears that the epidemic affecting neighboring China could prompt a similar health emergency in Russia. However, Mishustin says the situation is currently contained, and there's no need for alarm.

"In order to prevent the spread of infection in our country, all necessary measures have been taken, the operational headquarters is working and, the situation is under control," he told his deputies at a meeting in Moscow. The threat has also led to the postponement of the Russian Investment Forum, an annual event hosted in the southern city of Sochi, which attracts thousands of visitors from around the country.

Mishustin explained that a national plan has been implemented to thwart the circulation of the virus, and that it has also been added to the list of highly dangerous diseases. The Wuhan Coronavirus is the 16th addition to the table which includes maladies such as HIV, malaria, cholera, and the plague. According to the Prime Minister, the measure "will allow the deportation of foreign citizens if they have such a disease and introduce special restrictive measures, including isolation and quarantine."

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All this is so terrible, it became especially scary when they discovered this virus in the United States. 
But we need to think sensibly and pay attention to the facts. Many people who could not cope with this virus had chronic pains before, 
or because of their age, they could not cope with it.

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Important: Shen Yun Is Not From China
Shen Yun is based in New York, not China, and is in no way affected by the coronavirus situation. All Shen Yun performances will go on as scheduled. See you there! (Full press release)

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The coronavirus numbers, broken down

China’s National Health Commission confirmed Sunday evening that 97 more people had died of the Wuhan coronavirus, bringing the death toll in China 908. The global death toll is now 910 with one death in Hong Kong and one death in the Philippines. Let's break down the numbers:

Death toll
In China: 908
Outside China: 2
Global total: 910

In China: 40,171
Outside China: 539
Global total: 40,710

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1 hour ago, NipkowDisc said:

I think the Hollywood celeb community as a humanitarian gesture should offer themselves as voluntary infectees to save the rest of us.



That's called a human guinea pig, there are those who will risk their health even life.


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Clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus infection in China


Background: Since December 2019, acute respiratory disease (ARD) due to 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China. We sought to delineate the clinical characteristics of these cases. Methods: We extracted the data on 1,099 patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV ARD from 552 hospitals in 31 provinces/provincial municipalities through January 29th, 2020. Results: The median age was 47.0 years, and 41.90% were females. Only 1.18% of patients had a direct contact with wildlife, whereas 31.30% had been to Wuhan and 71.80% had contacted with people from Wuhan. Fever (87.9%) and cough (67.7%) were the most common symptoms. Diarrhea is uncommon. The median incubation period was 3.0 days (range, 0 to 24.0 days). On admission, ground-glass opacity was the typical radiological finding on chest computed tomography (50.00%). Significantly more severe cases were diagnosed by symptoms plus reverse-transcriptase polymerase-chain-reaction without abnormal radiological findings than non-severe cases (23.87% vs. 5.20%, P<0.001). Lymphopenia was observed in 82.1% of patients. 55 patients (5.00%) were admitted to intensive care unit and 15 (1.36%) succumbed. Severe pneumonia was independently associated with either the admission to intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, or death in multivariate competing-risk model (sub-distribution hazards ratio, 9.80; 95% confidence interval, 4.06 to 23.67). Conclusions: The 2019-nCoV epidemic spreads rapidly by human-to-human transmission. Normal radiologic findings are present among some patients with 2019-nCoV infection. The disease severity (including oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, blood leukocyte/lymphocyte count and chest X-ray/CT manifestations) predict poor clinical outcomes.

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Maximum death penalty! Heilongjiang High Court cracks down on crimes related to epidemic prevention and control


2020-02-03 20:53:40Beijing News reporter: Wang Yuejun Zhang Yixin
Original copyright prohibits commercial reprint authorization

Maximum death penalty! Heilongjiang High Court cracks down on crimes related to epidemic prevention and control

According to CCTV news reports, in order to give full play to the criminal trial functions of the People's Court, to maintain a safe and stable social order and the legitimate rights and interests of the people, to ensure that the various requirements of the Party Central Committee, the State Council and the Heilongjiang Provincial Party Committee and Provincial Government regarding the prevention and control of new coronavirus epidemics have been met Smooth implementation, the Heilongjiang Provincial High People's Court issued and issued the "Emergency Notice on Severely Combatting Criminal Crimes Related to Epidemic Prevention and Control", arranged and deployed criminal trials related to epidemic prevention and control in courts in the province, and punished severely according to law There are 9 types of 36 criminal crimes involved in epidemic prevention and control.


I. Crimes against national security


1. Using the new coronavirus epidemic to create and spread rumors, incite secession of the country, disrupt national unity, or incite subversion of the state power and overthrow of the socialist system may be suspected of violating Article 103 of the Criminal Law of the People's Republic of China. The second paragraph of Article 105 and Article 105 violate the "offence of inciting to split the state" and "offense of inciting subversion of state power", and the maximum sentence is 15 years.


Crimes against public safety

2. Intentional transmission of new coronavirus pathogens, endangering public safety, may be suspected of violating the provisions of Article 114 and Article 115, Paragraph 1 of the Criminal Law of the People's Republic of China, and violating "hazards by dangerous methods" Public safety crime ", the highest sentence is the death penalty.

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On 2/9/2020 at 10:11 PM, hamradio said:

That's called a human guinea pig, there are those who will risk their health even life.


Scratch the Guinea, and get a Human Pig, Donald Trump to offer himself up.  This way he saves all of us, and the planet, not only from the Coronsvirus, but from him and his insanity also.

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More Concerns About China’s Coronavirus Economic and Political Downside

US equities are cheerily unconcerned about the possibility of the Chinese economy taking a serious hit as a result of coronavirus outbreak. But in the last week, several overlapping stories in widely-read mainstream news outlets have taken issue with the consensus, and argue that China downside scenarios are both more probable and more serious than the mainstream view.

In fairness, the more sober-minded bond market is rattled, and commodities, which are heavily exposed to Chinese activity, are already wobbly. So it isn’t as if investors broadly are asleep at the wheel. From Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at the Telegraph today (we’ll be turning soon to his last week clarion call on China coronavirus risk, and the kindred assessments by other analysts):

Safe-haven flight into the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, and the dollar suggests that some large funds are battening down the hatches. The Australian dollar, a proxy for risk appetite, is plumbing depths last seen during the Lehman crisis.

The US dollar index (DXY) has been rising for several weeks and is not far short of 17-year highs. This creates a self-fulfilling effect of world-wide tightening. It drains global liquidity and squeezes borrowers with $12 trillion of dollar liabilities on the offshore funding markets in Asia and Europe….

“We’re seeing all these signs of recessionary ‘risk-off’ behaviour. Something has to give here,” said Lars Christensen from Markets and Money Advisory….

Few analysts have begun to ‘price’ the implication of a full-blown COVID-19 pandemic across the world…

A pandemic is no longer a scientific tail-risk. It is fast becoming the central risk…We should have a clear idea whether or not the spread is unstoppable within three weeks.

The US Defence Department’s Joint Staff has already activated its pandemic plan, ordering all services to brace for “widespread outbreaks” of the virus, according to Military Times.

We’ll focus on China, since the immediate economic concern is how the progress of the disease and efforts to manage it hurt their citizens and companies, which affects the West directly (supply chain disruption, loss of critical supplies, damage to companies that do a lot of business in and with China) and indirectly (the hit to global demand).

So forgive me a US aside before returning to the China front. Even though the plural of anecdote is not data, I see signs of concern even in the currently low-risk US (my scenario for how things might get troublesome here is that coronavirus winters in the global South, particularly Africa and Australia, and is primed to become US health risk during the 2020-2021 flu season). For instance, a friend in Dallas supplied me with several products, including a hand sanitizer used in operating theaters that supposedly kills nasties for five hours. Interestingly, she didn’t view coronavirus as a current risk but felt it was important to establish protective habits and routines well in advance of a potential threat. This suggests that not only will Americans stay well away from China for some time, but some may already be considering foregoing travel not just to Asia, but potentially even non-essential US trips.

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