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Biden’s Lead Down to Three


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Biden’s Lead Down to Three

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, it’s a three-point race.

Democrat Joe Biden now leads President Trump 49% to 46% among Likely U.S. Voters, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. The latest national telephone and online survey finds that two percent (2%) still prefer some other candidate, while another two percent (2%) remain undecided.

Two weeks ago, Biden had a 12-point lead. A week ago, he was ahead by eight. This is the first time in a month that Biden’s support has fallen below 50%.

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This means that Trump has caught Biden and has the momentum. Hiding in his basement worked for months but now Biden can't even come out and give a rally.

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7 minutes ago, MovieMadness said:

This may be hard for some to believe, but Trump is polling higher than Obama was at the end of his first term- and we know how that turned out.

The rise of the brain dead in America.  We will have a proper census count of the imbeciles this November.

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19 minutes ago, MovieMadness said:

Biden’s Lead Down to Three

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, it’s a three-point race.

Democrat Joe Biden now leads President Trump 49% to 46% among Likely U.S. Voters, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. The latest national telephone and online survey finds that two percent (2%) still prefer some other candidate, while another two percent (2%) remain undecided.

Two weeks ago, Biden had a 12-point lead. A week ago, he was ahead by eight. This is the first time in a month that Biden’s support has fallen below 50%.

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This means that Trump has caught Biden and has the momentum. Hiding in his basement worked for months but now Biden can't even come out and give a rally.

Rasmussen (and Trafalgar) are two of the most Republican-slanted polling organizations. Other pollsters may veer one way or the other, but they try to keep to professional standards. Rasmussen is not terribly highly respected. (538 gives them a grade of C+. )

CNN just released two polls at 4pm today:

Florida: Biden 50%, Trump 46%;

Pennsylvania: Biden 53%, Trump 43%.

 

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 Romney was leading against Obama with two weeks to go, and what happened? Biden = Romney

A 3 point lead is a statistical tie since California has millions more Democrat fraud votes going for Biden.

 

PS Hillary lost the last election, in case anyone forgot. She was polling ahead by the Democrat pollsters (big surprise there).

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5 minutes ago, MovieMadness said:

 Romney was leading against Obama with two weeks to go, and what happened? Biden = Romney

A 3 point lead is a statistical tie since California has millions more Democrat fraud votes going for Biden.

That's true, but it's about the states, as Hillary learned in 2016.  If Biden keeps Hillary's states, which he probably will, and adds Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, he wins. And Biden's current lead in those states exceeds the margin of error.

 

 

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The way some Trump supporters find conform today, it appears, is to cherry pick one poll that looks less miserable for Trump and remind everyone what happened in 2016. Clinton's lead was up and down prior to the election while Biden's has been stable, never less than 5% (except for this one from Rasmussen, Trump's favourite polling company). Many people couldn't stand Clinton. Biden doesn't have that issue. That's a major difference, even if Biden doesn't excite voters.

Some Democrats are whispering of a possible landslide victory, though they're still spooked by 2016 despite what they see in the polling numbers today.

One thing for certain: close state losses will be challenged by Republican lawyers who will try to overturn the results.

Another sure thing: while there may yet be some kind of October surprise in the final days, Trump's last big chance to try to turn the numbers around will probably be in tomorrow's debate. He will bring up the Moscow pipeline "Biden crime family" nonsense  which polls indicate the American public doesn't care about, more concerned with covid 19 (a subject that gives Trump the shivers) and the economy (which Trump curiously doesn't like to talk about as much as he enjoys attacking science, Dr. Fauci and Joe Biden). I look for Trump to probably  put another nail in his reelection coffin tomorrow evening with another scattershot bullying performance.

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I look at the polling on fivethirtyeight.com pretty regularly. There has been some tightening, but there is no way that Biden is up only by three. 

Right now they predict 346/192 Biden/Trump. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MovieMadness said:

Biden’s Lead Down to Three

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, it’s a three-point race.

Democrat Joe Biden now leads President Trump 49% to 46% among Likely U.S. Voters, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey. The latest national telephone and online survey finds that two percent (2%) still prefer some other candidate, while another two percent (2%) remain undecided.

Two weeks ago, Biden had a 12-point lead. A week ago, he was ahead by eight. This is the first time in a month that Biden’s support has fallen below 50%.

**********************************************

This means that Trump has caught Biden and has the momentum. Hiding in his basement worked for months but now Biden can't even come out and give a rally.

I don't know why you keep posting this lie about Biden hiding in his basement for months - he didn't.  He went out, he campaigned, he visited - he just didn't have superspreader PR events.  No, he is not going to give a rally because he doesn't need to as he is not an egotistical, narcistic, sycophant that must receive adoration from the minority that supports him.  Trump may hold rallies, but he has said nothing about how he will fix the problems his four years have created in this country.  Just the same, tired old attacks on his betters.

And as Tom pointed out. Joe ain't Hillary.  A lot of people just don't like Hillary at all and a lot of women did not want to vote for a woman for president.  So, no problem here for Biden.

As for polls, Biden is doing quite well.  He has two problems.  First that Dems and Dem leaning voters may not vote for him.  This is heavily influenced by the Nazi tactics that his supporters and Republican governments are using to try and suppress a fair and honest election.  They plan to steal the election.

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1 minute ago, ElCid said:

I don't know why you keep posting this lie about Biden hiding in his basement for months - he didn't.  He went out, he campaigned, he visited - he just didn't have superspreader PR events.  No, he is not going to give a rally because he doesn't need to as he is not an egotistical, narcistic, sycophant that must receive adoration from the minority that supports him.  Trump may hold rallies, but he has said nothing about how he will fix the problems his four years have created in this country.  Just the same, tired old attacks on his betters.

And as Tom pointed out. Joe ain't Hillary.  A lot of people just don't like Hillary at all and a lot of women did not want to vote for a woman for president.  So, no problem here for Biden.

As for polls, Biden is doing quite well.  He has two problems.  First that Dems and Dem leaning voters may not vote for him.  This is heavily influenced by the Nazi tactics that his supporters and Republican governments are using to try and suppress a fair and honest election.  They plan to steal the election.

I find it impossible to "like" your comment - in particular what I put in bold - but I do agree with it. 

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By the way, who thinks Trump is a good debater? He's not good on issues and spends all his time interrupting and trying to throw a debating opponent off with those interruptions and snarky one liners because in an honest exchange of ideas he's hopeless. In the last debate he alienated many voters with his bullying interruptions turning the debate into a shambles. More of the same tomorrow? I strongly suspect so as the pressure at losing the campaign is clearly getting to Trump.

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8 minutes ago, TomJH said:

By the way, who thinks Trump is a good debater? He's not good on issues and spends all his time interrupting and trying to throw a debating opponent off with those interruptions and snarky one liners because in an honest exchange of ideas he's hopeless. In the last debate he alienated many voters with his bullying interruptions turning the debate into a shambles. More of the same tomorrow? I strongly suspect so as the pressure at losing the campaign is clearly getting to Trump.

His microphone will be mutable tomorrow night, so no more of that. I doubt Trump  would show up tomorrow night, but he knows he is losing and he is desperate.

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8 minutes ago, LsDoorMat said:

His microphone will be mutable tomorrow night, so no more of that. I doubt Trump  would show up tomorrow night, but he knows he is losing and he is desperate.

My understanding is that the debaters' microphones will only be muted during the two minute period when the opponent first replies to a question. After that it is open mikes so Trump will have his opportunity to play the bully once again. Trump is showing the signs of cracking up like Captain Queeg. Who knows what may come flooding out of his mouth. Maybe he'll start talking about strawberries.

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25 minutes ago, LsDoorMat said:

I find it impossible to "like" your comment - in particular what I put in bold - but I do agree with it. 

OK, I'll accept that.  The reports of what Trump supporters are already doing at various early voting sites and ballot drop off sites tends to support my statement.  The actions by Republicans state governments to suppress the vote also support it.

The Washington Post
The Post Most
 
 
d064c9fc800a8dcca425bf6b495e8679-X543XSATFYI6XPAQICZFHAXRXY-600-0-70-8.jpg

(Maria Alejandra Cardona/Reuters)

Shouting matches, partisan rallies, guns at polling places: Tensions run high at early-voting sites

Dozens of allegations of possible voter intimidation and improper campaigning have marked the early days of voting.

By Joshua Partlow   Read more »

15 minutes ago, LsDoorMat said:

His microphone will be mutable tomorrow night, so no more of that. I doubt Trump  would show up tomorrow night, but he knows he is losing and he is desperate.

But only for the two minute response to initial questions as I understand it.  Then the mikes will be open.  Besides which, I am confident that while Biden is speaking during his two minutes, Trump will gesticulate and make loud comments.

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3 minutes ago, ElCid said:

OK, I'll accept that.  The reports of what Trump supporters are already doing at various early voting sites and ballot drop off sites tends to support my statement.  The actions by Republicans state governments to suppress the vote also support it.

 

But only for the two minute response to initial questions as I understand it.  Then the mikes will be open.  Besides which, I am confident that while Biden is speaking during his two minutes, Trump will gesticulate and make loud comments.

I dropped my absentee ballot off at an early voting site on Monday. Being diabetic,  standing in a line like I always have was just too risky. I hope it gets counted. 

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d064c9fc800a8dcca425bf6b495e8679-X543XSATFYI6XPAQICZFHAXRXY-600-0-70-8.jpg

 

Yep, if I was undecided this bunch would certainly make me want to vote for Trump! :)  

Why is it OK for them to do that to the American flag but taking a knee for the National Anthem is not OK? 

Just wondering. 

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2 hours ago, MovieMadness said:

Biden’s Lead Down to Three

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, it’s a three-point race.

Democrat Joe Biden now leads President Trump 49% to 46% among Likely U.S. Voters, according to Rasmussen Reports’ weekly White House Watch survey.

 

Why not average all of the polls together ?

lpUzw2B.png

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6 minutes ago, LsDoorMat said:

d064c9fc800a8dcca425bf6b495e8679-X543XSATFYI6XPAQICZFHAXRXY-600-0-70-8.jpg

 

Yep, if I was undecided this bunch would certainly make me want to vote for Trump! :)  

Why is it OK for them to do that to the American flag but taking a knee for the National Anthem is not OK? 

Just wondering. 

I've actually had problems with wearing the American flag on police, fire, EMS and similar uniforms.  The US Military wears it to identify themselves as being with American forces in a foreign county.  Of course it is on the uniform all the time because you don't take time to start sewing things on it when being sent into a conflict.  Even then, it is subdued.

Don't think much of law enforcement supporters with their "blue flag."  Also don't like fire departments that drag it around behind their vehicles in rain, snow, foul weather and so forth.  Despite what they say, they do not clean them and take care of them.

As for your question, the so called patriots in this country have long discriminated against anyone who does not agree with them.

 

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4 minutes ago, GGGGerald said:

Why not average all of the polls together ?

lpUzw2B.png

I think 538 does average the reliable polls.  In fact, the chart you show begins with an average.  One of the networks has their poll of polls that is supposed to average them out.  However, people will always be selective in which polls they wish to publicize.

The averages I have seen still show Biden comfortably ahead.

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9 minutes ago, GGGGerald said:

Why not average all of the polls together ?

lpUzw2B.png

If you average these polls together Biden has a lead of 7.6. Round that up to 8 and that is probably a realistic "tightening" at this point. 

If you figure 3% vote for OTHER. ..

44.5%   Trump

52.5%   Biden

3% other

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2 minutes ago, ElCid said:

I think 538 does average the reliable polls.  In fact, the chart you show begins with an average.  One of the networks has their poll of polls that is supposed to average them out.  However, people will always be selective in which polls they wish to publicize.

The averages I have seen still show Biden comfortably ahead.

That's why I like that site. You can see each poll result and judge for yourself.

I don't need talking heads to tell me when I can read for myself.

 

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1 minute ago, GGGGerald said:

That's why I like that site. You can see each poll result and judge for yourself.

I don't need talking heads to tell me when I can read for myself.

 

The biggest problem with polls is who they poll.  Second biggest is whether or not the people being polled are honest.  I have never been polled on either state or national elections.

The best story about polling is when the newspapers polled the Dewey-Truman contest by telephoning people.  A vast number of Democrats and independents did not have phones, whereas the wealthier, more elite Republicans did.

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One last look at the polls: Hillary Clinton's lead is holding steady

Today's the day when the old cliche is true: The only poll that counts is the one on election day.

So what do the final election day polls show for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? Well, pretty much what they've been showing.

“Our polls have shown Clinton’s lead in the national popular vote to be remarkably stable despite the many apparent twists and turns in the campaign,” said Jon Cohen, the chief research officer for SurveyMonkey.

“All fall, Clinton has maintained a lead over Trump, with her margin hovering in a narrow band between four and six percentage points.”

SurveyMonkey has polled more than 1 million Americans over the last 11 months, providing a pool of data that is bigger than any previous effort. Its final poll sits at the high end of what it has found for the year, showing Clinton leading Trump 47% to 41%, with 6% for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, and 3% for Jill Stein of the Green Party.

Overall, SurveyMonkey estimates Clinton's chances of winning at 96%.

The final ABC/Washington Post tracking poll offers a very similar look — 47% for Clinton, 43% for Trump in a two-way contest.

Several other national surveys released on Monday were consistent with a Clinton lead of about four points. She was ahead by that amount in surveys by CBS, Fox News and YouGov. Polls by Reuters and Bloomberg both had Clinton ahead by three points, while a final poll by Monmouth University had her up by six. 

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And that night she lost by a landslide. This goes to show you can't trust Democrat pollsters. This is especially true since Biden is hiding this week and not holding rallies like Trump does, he can't talk about what he wants to do or even talk about his son getting rich off of selling access to him.

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29 minutes ago, MovieMadness said:

One last look at the polls: Hillary Clinton's lead is holding steady

Today's the day when the old cliche is true: The only poll that counts is the one on election day.

So what do the final election day polls show for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? Well, pretty much what they've been showing.

“Our polls have shown Clinton’s lead in the national popular vote to be remarkably stable despite the many apparent twists and turns in the campaign,” said Jon Cohen, the chief research officer for SurveyMonkey.

“All fall, Clinton has maintained a lead over Trump, with her margin hovering in a narrow band between four and six percentage points.”

SurveyMonkey has polled more than 1 million Americans over the last 11 months, providing a pool of data that is bigger than any previous effort. Its final poll sits at the high end of what it has found for the year, showing Clinton leading Trump 47% to 41%, with 6% for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, and 3% for Jill Stein of the Green Party.

Overall, SurveyMonkey estimates Clinton's chances of winning at 96%.

The final ABC/Washington Post tracking poll offers a very similar look — 47% for Clinton, 43% for Trump in a two-way contest.

Several other national surveys released on Monday were consistent with a Clinton lead of about four points. She was ahead by that amount in surveys by CBS, Fox News and YouGov. Polls by Reuters and Bloomberg both had Clinton ahead by three points, while a final poll by Monmouth University had her up by six. 

********************************************************

And that night she lost by a landslide. This goes to show you can't trust Democrat pollsters. This is especially true since Biden is hiding this week and not holding rallies like Trump does, he can't talk about what he wants to do or even talk about his son getting rich off of selling access to him.

She didn't lose by a landslide, she got 3 million more votes. But I agree, elections can be tampered with, as you should know, and we have to make sure that doesn't happen here (again).

9821b9d47badeb047ab05b54c0ef9da8.jpg

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