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Biden’s Lead Down to Three


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13 hours ago, MovieMadness said:

One last look at the polls: Hillary Clinton's lead is holding steady

Today's the day when the old cliche is true: The only poll that counts is the one on election day.

So what do the final election day polls show for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump? Well, pretty much what they've been showing.

“Our polls have shown Clinton’s lead in the national popular vote to be remarkably stable despite the many apparent twists and turns in the campaign,” said Jon Cohen, the chief research officer for SurveyMonkey.

“All fall, Clinton has maintained a lead over Trump, with her margin hovering in a narrow band between four and six percentage points.”

SurveyMonkey has polled more than 1 million Americans over the last 11 months, providing a pool of data that is bigger than any previous effort. Its final poll sits at the high end of what it has found for the year, showing Clinton leading Trump 47% to 41%, with 6% for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian nominee, and 3% for Jill Stein of the Green Party.

Overall, SurveyMonkey estimates Clinton's chances of winning at 96%.

The final ABC/Washington Post tracking poll offers a very similar look — 47% for Clinton, 43% for Trump in a two-way contest.

Several other national surveys released on Monday were consistent with a Clinton lead of about four points. She was ahead by that amount in surveys by CBS, Fox News and YouGov. Polls by Reuters and Bloomberg both had Clinton ahead by three points, while a final poll by Monmouth University had her up by six. 

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And that night she lost by a landslide. This goes to show you can't trust Democrat pollsters. This is especially true since Biden is hiding this week and not holding rallies like Trump does, he can't talk about what he wants to do or even talk about his son getting rich off of selling access to him.

Wrong again.  Clinton won the popular vote and EC vote was 304 to 227 and that is not a "landslide."

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3 minutes ago, MovieMadness said:

Trump still has a lead over Obama with less than two weeks to go.

What race are you watching?

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47 minutes ago, cigarjoe said:

He's crazier than a sheet house rat, in case you haven't guessed yet......

With Trump lagging in the polls behind Biden in a real race, MM has now resorted to posting that Trump is ahead of Obama in an imaginary one.

This makes me wonder, if Biden wins the Oval Office, will Movie Madness insist that Trump is still there?

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2 hours ago, cigarjoe said:

He's crazier than a sheet house rat, in case you haven't guessed yet......

 

53 minutes ago, MovieMadness said:

(For the clueless)

Obama polls 2012

Trump polls 2020

Trump leads where Obama was, yet Obama won. It's not hard to figure out the rest.

Unless you have TDS.

Is it my imagination or did MM just confirm Cigar Joe's statement?

 

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21 minutes ago, MovieMadness said:

Trump is polling higher just like Obama did in 2012 in the final two weeks. Democrats better be very worried thanks to sleepy joe's performance last night.

Not as worried as Trump supporters.

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2 hours ago, MovieMadness said:

Trump is polling higher just like Obama did in 2012 in the final two weeks. Democrats better be very worried thanks to sleepy joe's performance last night.

Which polls - national or swing states?

Latest I have seen shows Bidden polling ahead of Trump in most states trump must win.  As for debate results, Biden did OK, but Trump did terribly.  One writer gave Bidden a C+ and Trump an F.  Probably nobody's vote will change based on the debate.

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Updated polls show a Trump surge since the debate., up 8 points in two weeks.

White House Watch

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Democrat Joe Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters.

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Hiding in his basement has Biden losing now.

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38 minutes ago, MovieMadness said:

Updated polls show a Trump surge since the debate., up 8 points in two weeks.

White House Watch

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Democrat Joe Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters.

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Hiding in his basement has Biden losing now.

Why do you NEVER provide links to your sources?

And whatever source you have, if that's a national poll, it's out of line with the other polls which have Biden well ahead.

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44 minutes ago, MovieMadness said:

Updated polls show a Trump surge since the debate., up 8 points in two weeks.

White House Watch

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Democrat Joe Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters.

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Hiding in his basement has Biden losing now.

Thanks for helping remind people that every vote against Trump counts!

So people, please ensure you vote!      Don't depended on others to send Trump packing!

 

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Biden's lead is growing in three battleground states:

"With voting already well underway, former Vice President Joe Biden has extended his leads over President Donald Trump in three key battleground states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — according to new polls by the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.

Trump’s support had held steady in each state over the past three months, closely mirroring his job approval ratings, which have hovered in the low 40s. The difference in the final days is that a larger share of undecided and potential minor party voters have come to support Biden."

https://news.wisc.edu/new-polls-show-biden-with-growing-leads-in-three-battleground-states/

 

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That University of Wisconsin poll is a new poll that didn't cover 2016, so they have nothing to go on. Some of these "pollsters" would have declared Biden the winner in the last debate even if he had dropped from a heart attack. And a national poll always comes out closer to the final outcome, whereas the swing states will follow. There is a reason that Trump won in 2016 and the pollsters got it wrong. Nothing they have done has changed the way they do this.

An example is the gaffe Biden did about ending the oil industry. None of the polls matter in the oil industry states before he said that. Hillary said she would end the coal industry and lost the coal states. That's why Joe was put into hiding in his basement.

When Obama ran for his re-election, his first debate he did worse and so did Trump. By the last debate he won since Romney stopped attacking him. This election is a repeat of that plus Hillary and her coal debacle. Trump is out in rallies each day and evening. Biden is hiding and couldn't muster up five squirrels to come see him.

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4 minutes ago, NipkowDisc said:

Some of these "pollsters" would have declared Biden the winner in the last debate even if he had dropped from a heart attack.

:lol::D:lol::D

True.  Because Trump lied every time he opened his mouth.  The bar has become subterranean.

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1 hour ago, MovieMadness said:

That University of Wisconsin poll is a new poll that didn't cover 2016, so they have nothing to go on. Some of these "pollsters" would have declared Biden the winner in the last debate even if he had dropped from a heart attack. And a national poll always comes out closer to the final outcome, whereas the swing states will follow. There is a reason that Trump won in 2016 and the pollsters got it wrong. Nothing they have done has changed the way they do this.

The difference between now and 2016 is that in 2016, Trump was a fairly unknown quantity in terms of how he would govern, which meant that people who just didn't like Hillary voted to give him a chance. Trump's deplorables will stay with him this year, but many of the voters who gave him a chance won't.

Yes, Trump won the coal states. West Virginia gave him the highest Republican vote in its recent history.  Meanwhile, West Virginia continues to have the third highest rate of cancer deaths in the country. That was a point that Trump clearly made in the last debate: if you're getting a paycheck, it doesn't matter if the work kills you.

Another important point (made in the following podcast) is that Biden is above 50% in almost all the polls in those three states. In 2016, although Clinton was leading in the polls there, she was under 50%. There were a lot of undecideds, who broke mostly for Trump. There aren't many undecideds there this year, and it would be very unusual for someone who is clearly for Biden to switch to Trump at this point.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/fewer-undecided-voters-is-good-news-for-biden-in-the-midwest/

 

 

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5 hours ago, MovieMadness said:

Updated polls show a Trump surge since the debate., up 8 points in two weeks.

White House Watch

Trump 48%, Biden 47%

The latest national telephone and online survey finds Trump edging Democrat Joe Biden 48% to 47% among Likely U.S. Voters.

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Hiding in his basement has Biden losing now.

I've noticed you still haven't revealed your source for this "poll." You know, faking an imaginary poll in order to make a partisan statement doesn't count as a real poll.

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3 hours ago, Swithin said:

The difference between now and 2016 is that in 2016, Trump was a fairly unknown quantity in terms of how he would govern, which meant that people who just didn't like Hillary voted to give him a chance. Trump's deplorables will stay with him this year, but many of the voters who gave him a chance won't.

Yes, Trump won the coal states. West Virginia gave him the highest Republican vote in its recent history.  Meanwhile, West Virginia continues to have the third highest rate of cancer deaths in the country. That was a point that Trump clearly made in the last debate: if you're getting a paycheck, it doesn't matter if the work kills you.

Another important point (made in the following podcast) is that Biden is above 50% in almost all the polls in those three states. In 2016, although Clinton was leading in the polls there, she was under 50%. There were a lot of undecideds, who broke mostly for Trump. There aren't many undecideds there this year, and it would be very unusual for someone who is clearly for Biden to switch to Trump at this point.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/fewer-undecided-voters-is-good-news-for-biden-in-the-midwest/

 

 

Plus there was Jill Stein last time siphoning off votes.

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3 hours ago, Hibi said:

Plus there was Jill Stein last time siphoning off votes.

And Johnson got 2.5% of the vote in Pennsylvania.   Half of that would have given Clinton the State.  We are not hearing about any third parties this election.

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