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Think Newsom has recall in the bag? Don't be so sure


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2 hours ago, JamesJazGuitar said:

Why would Newsom support a solid alterative candidate on the ballot?     Uh,  because it would have shown that he cared about CA and the CA Dem party;  I.e. that the MAIN goal was to ensure continued Dem leadership.     Instead he put CA as  risk with a Trumper being the possible Governor due to the screwy CA recall process.

So you're correct:  Newsom didn't "risk that",  since,  as  I stated,  all he cared about was his own political career.     

I'll be working hard to defeat Newsom in the next primary.   AGAIN,  I still would like a moderate Dem to be Governor,   but NOT Newsom.     My understand is that most that voted  to keep Newsom did so only because they didn't want a Trumper (NOT because they actually favor Newsom).

 

There'd be no guarantee a Dem candidate would win. The Lt. Gov. (a Dem) ran in the last recall and LOST. I can see why he wouldn't want to risk that. Considering there'll be an election in a year, I can understand why he would do this. Let's face it, every political candidate is looking after themselves. Good luck!

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11 hours ago, MovieMadness said:

All indications are Newsom was losing this recall until the last week, when the democrats mobilized all their votes and miraculously achieved a very high turnout in the last second with "absentee" ballots. This is the same trck with Biden which was used to win the presidential election. it was all the "absentee" ballots that won it for democrats (wink wink). That's why they want the entire country to go with absentee ballot voting.

LOL! FRAUD! ABSENTEE BALLOTS! :D

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11 minutes ago, Hibi said:

There'd be no guarantee a Dem candidate would win. The Lt. Gov. (a Dem) ran in the last recall and LOST. I can see why he wouldn't want to risk that. Considering there'll be an election in a year, I can understand why he would do this. Let's face it, every political candidate is looking after them self,. Good luck!

It appears you don't understand how the CA recall works;    Having a high quality "back-up" from the same party as the sitting Governor only increases the odds that party remains  in power.    Note there  are TWO separate questions;  Recall - Yes or no.     Replacement candidate.

One can vote "NO" and  still select a replacement candidate.    Newsom told Dems to vote NO but NOT select a  replacement candidate (leave it blank).     This selfish stunt increased the odds a Republican would get the most replacement candidate votes and that is  what happened (sick in the heard, Elder got the most votes as  the replacement). 

Newsom should have said vote "NO" but vote for the Dem Lt. Governor as  the replacement.    Then the Lt. Governor would have had more votes than any Republican,  and regardless of the outcome of the recall question,    a  Dem would remain Governor.     This is  simple math.

Anyhow,  CA was saved from Elder and I'm happy about that.    I'll just work to primary out Newsom in 2022.

 

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19 hours ago, JamesJazGuitar said:

I still don't view the recall as a GOP stunt.  I'm not a member and I supported the recall.    

The biggest stunt was pulled by Newsom,  who told  all other major Dems in the state NOT to run as his back-up.       E.g.  The Lt. Governor.    

Newsom is a selfish elitist that doesn't care about the Dem party here in CA but only his own personal political career. 

 

Apparently it worked and the CA Dem party and other Dems agreed with his "stunt" as being the best way to insure a Republican does not win.

1 hour ago, JamesJazGuitar said:

Why would Newsom support a solid alterative candidate on the ballot?     Uh,  because it would have shown that he cared about CA and the CA Dem party;  I.e. that the MAIN goal was to ensure continued Dem leadership.     Instead he put CA as  risk with a Trumper being the possible Governor due to the screwy CA recall process.

So you're correct:  Newsom didn't "risk that",  since,  as  I stated,  all he cared about was his own political career.     

I'll be working hard to defeat Newsom in the next primary.   AGAIN,  I still would like a moderate Dem to be Governor,   but NOT Newsom.     My understand is that most that voted  to keep Newsom did so only because they didn't want a Trumper (NOT because they actually favor Newsom).

 

Almost all politicians care more about their career's, but Newsom also apparently cared about keeping a GOPer out of the governor's office.

43 minutes ago, JamesJazGuitar said:

It appears you don't understand how the CA recall works;    Having a high quality "back-up" from the same party as the sitting Governor only increases the odds that party remains  in power.    Note there  are TWO separate questions;  Recall - Yes or no.     Replacement candidate.

One can vote "NO" and  still select a replacement candidate.    Newsom told Dems to vote NO but NOT select a  replacement candidate (leave it blank).     This selfish stunt increased the odds a Republican would get the most replacement candidate votes and that is  what happened (sick in the heard, Elder got the most votes as  the replacement). 

Newsom should have said vote "NO" but vote for the Dem Lt. Governor as  the replacement.    Then the Lt. Governor would have had more votes than any Republican,  and regardless of the outcome of the recall question,    a  Dem would remain Governor.     This is  simple math.

Anyhow,  CA was saved from Elder and I'm happy about that.    I'll just work to primary out Newsom in 2022.

 

It would seem to me that one fear the Dem party in CA had was that too many people might vote NO on the recall, but then skip voting for a replacement at all.  So, if recall passed, might not be enough votes for a new Dem governor.  Also, if there was a Dem alternative, enough Dem voters could have voted yes and then split the votes for new governor thereby giving it to a Republican.

It does seem that the CA recall needs modifications such as you suggested.  

I think the vote shows that the majority of voters in CA are satisfied with the current governor or did not want a GOPer in the governor's office.  Hopefully that will remain true in 2022.

Any way, appreciate your input as the CA "expert" here.

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19 minutes ago, ElCid said:

It would seem to me that one fear the Dem party in CA had was that too many people might vote NO on the recall, but then skip voting for a replacement at all.  So, if recall passed, might not be enough votes for a new Dem governor

You also appear to misunderstand what happened with the Dem party here in CA;   Newsom told Dems to Vote NO on the recall,  AND to skip voting for a replacement;  To leave that question BLANK.

Again,  this was his advise.  This was what the ads advised.     So of course Dems had fear that too many people might vote NO on the recall, but skip voting for a replacement (i.e. follow Newsom's advise), thus increasing the odds a Republican would win.    AND this is  what happened.     A Republican got the most votes as the replacement.

What the advise of the DEM party should have been was:  vote NO,  but vote for the Dem Lt. Governor as the replacement.    This way if Newsom was recalled the odds would be higher that the Lt. Governor would get more votes  than any Republican. 

 I don't understand how this is so hard for others outside of CA to understand.    Newsom didn't care that CA retain Dem leadership but only HIS leadership.   In this way Newsom was just like Trump;  It is all about them and party be dammed.

PS:  one change being called for is that the recall only contains one question:  Yes or no.   If YES, prevails the Lt. Governor is the Governor.   (i.e. the same process as when a sitting Governor dies).    NO "replacement" candidates running.   

 

 

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3 minutes ago, JamesJazGuitar said:

You also appear to misunderstand what happened with the Dem party here in CA;   Newsom told Dems to Vote NO on the recall,  AND to skip voting for a replacement;  To leave that question BLANK.

Again,  this was his advise.  This was what the ads advised.     So of course Dems had fear that too many people might vote NO on the recall, but skip voting for a replacement (i.e. follow Newsom's advise), thus increasing the odds a Republican would win.    AND this is  what happened.     A Republican got the most votes as the replacement.

What the advise of the DEM party should have been was:  vote NO,  but vote for the Dem Lt. Governor as the replacement.    This way if Newsom was recalled the odds would be higher that the Lt. Governor would get more votes  than any Republican. 

 I don't understand how this is so hard for others outside of CA to understand.    Newsom didn't care that CA retain Dem leadership but only HIS leadership.   In this way Newsom was just like Trump;  It is all about them and party be dammed.

 

 

 

I understood your point, but maybe the thinking was that too many people would vote Yes if there was a Dem replacement candidate, but then more people would vote for the GOPer replacement candidate.  Or too many Dems would vote NO and not vote at all for a replacement and if the YES vote succeeded the GOPer candidate would  win.  Especially if more than one Dem on ballot as a replacement.

Personally, I do not like the recall process.

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2 hours ago, ElCid said:

I understood your point, but maybe the thinking was that too many people would vote Yes if there was a Dem replacement candidate, but then more people would vote for the GOPer replacement candidate.  Or too many Dems would vote NO and not vote at all for a replacement and if the YES vote succeeded the GOPer candidate would  win.  Especially if more than one Dem on ballot as a replacement.

Personally, I do not like the recall process.

I can tell you that there was little fear that people that voted YES,  especially Dems (which outnumber GOPers by 2 -1),  would vote for YES to recall Newson but select a Republican as the replacements.      Even a majority of independents (like me),  wouldn't have done that.    

As for: too many Dems would vote NO and not vote at all for a replacement:   This is what Newsom wanted.   This is what Newsom asked voters to do ,  and that is what happened. (but only because there was no qualified\experienced back-up Dem replacement).

My guess is that if the Lt. Governor was  on the ballot as a replacement,  she would have received the most votes (by a mile).     Dems and independents that voted YES  or NO would have selected her overwhelming over the Trumper Elder  (instead of NOT voting at all,  or voting for one of the 30 plus unqualified hacks like Jenner etc...).

    

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1 hour ago, JamesJazGuitar said:

I can tell you that there was little fear that people that voted YES,  especially Dems (which outnumber GOPers by 2 -1),  would for YES to recall Newson but select a Republican as the replacements.      Even a majority of independents (like me),  wouldn't have done that.    

As for: too many Dems would vote NO and not vote at all for a replacement:   This is what Newsom wanted.   This is what Newsom asked voters to do ,  and that is what happened. (but only because there was no qualified\experienced back-up Dem replacement).

My guess is that if the Lt. Governor was  on the ballot as a replacement,  she would have received the most votes (by a mile).     Dems and independents that voted YES  or NO would have selected her overwhelming over the Trumper Elder  (instead of NOT voting at all,  or voting for one of the 30 plus unqualified hacks like Jenner etc...).

    

I can see that we are never going to understand each other on this, so I'll just quit now.

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51 minutes ago, ElCid said:

I can see that we are never going to understand each other on this, so I'll just quit now.

I admit I don't know what you disagree with (or even if you do).   So yea,  time to move on.

 

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22 hours ago, JamesJazGuitar said:

It appears you don't understand how the CA recall works;    Having a high quality "back-up" from the same party as the sitting Governor only increases the odds that party remains  in power.    Note there  are TWO separate questions;  Recall - Yes or no.     Replacement candidate.

One can vote "NO" and  still select a replacement candidate.    Newsom told Dems to vote NO but NOT select a  replacement candidate (leave it blank).     This selfish stunt increased the odds a Republican would get the most replacement candidate votes and that is  what happened (sick in the heard, Elder got the most votes as  the replacement). 

Newsom should have said vote "NO" but vote for the Dem Lt. Governor as  the replacement.    Then the Lt. Governor would have had more votes than any Republican,  and regardless of the outcome of the recall question,    a  Dem would remain Governor.     This is  simple math.

Anyhow,  CA was saved from Elder and I'm happy about that.    I'll just work to primary out Newsom in 2022.

 

I'm well aware of how the recall works. You don't have to explain it to me. I already mentioned that the  Lt. Gov. (a Dem) ran in the last recall and he LOST. So no guarantee he'd win this time. Newsom has political ambitions. He was betting running against a potential Elder win would help him and it did. It wouldn't look good on his resume that he was recalled. I doubt a GOP governor would've acted any differently. Voters have the chance to vote him out next year if they want to.

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