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MY 23rd Annual PREDICTIONS 2002 OSCARS-(SAVE & COMPARE THIS SUNDAY)


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Welp, given we are getting down to the wire I thought it time I finally-(already hit several other websites/contests,etc) Plus, writing for a newsletter entitled "Oscartalk"

 

Below are only the top 8 major categories forecasted

for the winners for THE 77th ANNUAL ACADEMY AWARDS-(AMPAS)

 

This is as noted my 23rd yr. in doing so-(took about 5 to kind of get a handle on the politics invloved in Hollywood/ACADEMY & I of course, still make mistakes-(won Variety's top prize for 2002 though as it's annual "Oscar-Oracle") Last yr. I hit 18 for 24 on the button

 

So here goes: 2004 OSCARS

 

BEST PICTURE:

WILL WIN: "MILLION DOLLAR BABY" (WB)

SHOULD WIN: (same)-(NOTE: Strongest new release I have seen in 2 years. Folks respect "The Aviator" for being well crafted technically. But, this is the 1 that sticks to you!!!)

 

 

BEST ACTOR:-(easiest category to predict this year)

WILL WIN: JAMIE FOXX in "Ray"

SHOULD WIN: (same)-(TRIVIA: If he has his name called.

Foxx will be the 8th black performer to win. Though Denzel Washington has won twice td.)

 

 

BEST ACTRESS:

WILL WIN: HILARY SWANK in "Million $ Baby"-(P.S. Though Annette Bening is on her 3rd attempt & is Hollywood Royalty in being married-(for quite sometime too) to Warren Beatty!?)

SHOULD WIN: (same)

 

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

WILL WIN: MORGAN FREEMAN in "Million $ Baby"

SHOULD: (same)

 

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:-(NOTE: This category is "my weakest slot" It has often pulled some "wacky things too?"

Lauren Bacall losing on her 1st shot ever in '96. The famous 1992 Marisi Tomei victory,etc)

WILL WIN: CATE BLANCHETT in "The Aviator"-(P.S. I know sagebrush of this site hates her performance. But, thats what makes "Horse Racin'" This is once-again a close race with>V. Madsen in "Sideways?" Another thing in this Cate's corner, for playing the most legendary of all "KATE'S" As in of course KATE HEPBURN! She lost for '98's "Elizabeth" Still almost a flip of the coin?)

SHOULD WIN: (same)

 

 

BEST DIRECTOR:-(arguably as tough to forecast as s. actress)

WILL WIN: CLINT EASTWOOD for "Million $ Baby"-(This would give Clint 4 total "Golden Boys'" If "MDB' also takes the biggie as expected. Due to him producing his films as well. He won same 2 for the even greater 1992 Western masterpiece: "Unforgiven")

SHOULD WIN: MARTIN SCORSESE or "The Aviator"-(Far from his best flix>"R. Bull"/ "GoodFellas"/ "Taxi Driver"

But for what the lil' geniues of filmmaking still had to put together. Though not a great movie-(plays loose with facts & other problems) a technical triumph)

 

ADAPTED-SCREENPLAY:

WILL WIN: "SIDEWAYS" (Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor)

SHOULD: (same)

 

& BEST ORIGINAL-SCREENPLAY:

WILL WIN: "ETERNAL SUNSHINE, OF THE SPOTLESS MIND" (Charlie Kaufman)-(NOTE: My original forecasted winner here was: "Vera Drake" Due to Mike Leigh also being up for BD for same. Another close call)

SHOULD WIN: (same)

 

Please feel free to join in & predict as well

 

These are the most difficult OSCARS to get a handle on in 9yrs. 1995 the year of *"Braveheart"

 

Thank You & PLEASE SAVE & MATCH 'EM UP?

 

 

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Certainly all of your picks could easily win, but I feel fairly strongly that this is the year that Scorsese, and his movie (as Best Picture), will finally take home the gold (and deservedly so). I loved three of the BP Nominees (Aviator, Million Dollar Baby and Sideways), liked one very much (Finding Neverland) and pretty much couldn't stand one (Ray, which I found both tedious AND boring, a very bad combination for a film. It's hard to believe that a guy who lived such an interesting life should have a film made of it that is so incredibly UN-interesting).

 

And, although unfortunately I believe you are probably correct about Jamie Foxx winning Best Actor, I think it would be a major miscarriage of justice. Foxx was good, no doubt, but great, as many are saying? No way! If you're going to give him an Oscar for an IMPERSONATION of Ray Charles, you might as well have given Jim Carrey an Oscar for doing the same thing with Andy Kauffman. Don Cheadle, in my mind, is the one who should get the Oscar this year. In fact, I'd have no problem with any of the nominees EXCEPT Foxx winning this year.

 

Just my opinion, of course (which I NEVER have any trouble expressing!)

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To juaritt, thanks for input-(& to any others, please feel free as well to PREDICT!)

 

By the way, on Don Cheadle winning his 1st shot at "The Golden Boy" A pal 0'mine & fellow pundit>Mr. Scott Feinberg, was at Yale University the other day & they had a visit from the actual individual Cheadle portrayed in this movie. As well as his wife-(played by s. actress nominee: Sophie 0konedo)

 

& as I always say I PREDICT THE ACADEMY AWARDS & If I were a voting member of the AMPAS there are a couple flix/performances that I strongly feel were "snubbed," of at least being in this race.

 

Kevin Spacey's tour de force work as Bobby Darin in "Beyond the Sea"-(despite the age difference, which is mentioned early in the bio. He delivers an amazing pc. of work)

Plus, 1 that likely devides many. However, it stuck with me>Uma Thurman & David Carradine in "Kill Bill, volume 2"

Actually, none of the Carradine Dynasty has won an acting shot?

 

I forgot to list a kind of tie-breaker "MDB" I forecast to win 5 overall this Sunday & "The Aviator" 3 to 4.

 

Thank You

 

(P.S. to Mongo, you should throw your hand in here buddy)

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It's funny - so many Oscar threads, with enthusiasm for trivia and bets on winners, but almost no interest in the actual awards and show. Guess this is a clear representation of viewer apathy, but I can understand where the backlash is coming from. One tires of Hollywood's internal politics, the snubbing of many actors for reasons unrelated to talent, the rewarding of other actors for reasons unrelated to talent, and studios releasing truckloads of "downers" during the Christmas season (when most people are already feeling "low") for their own selfish Oscar manipulation. There's resentment, too, towards the media for selling many of these films as instant classics, when, in fact, most of these titles would have been regarded as just "above average" a decade ago. Most of these same titles would also have gotten much lower ratings if they'd been released in spring or summer, before the Oscar hype machine kicks in. It's no wonder more and more moviegoers are tuning out the Oscars, when so many of them (including just about every person I know, in fact) have become angry at watching such super-hyped films and asking afterwards, "That's all there is?" or "What were those critics smoking?" You figure, by this time, that the studios and Academy would start to analyze their own actions, especially when their heavy-handedness is inspiring the public to go see the likes of Meet the Fockers and Hitch. And now, the Academy is desperate for their show to attract younger viewers. Yes, of course, it'll be worth my losing hours of precious sleep just to hear Beyonce sing as many as three different songs during the telecast. Yep, nothing like that Oscar "tradition" . . Zzzzzzzzzzzz.

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I totally agree with you Orson4ever! Still, I manage to look forward to the Oscar night from year to year, and to a certain degree still play the "who's gonna win" game after picking my own personal favorites (from an increasingly dismal field), and then leaving them unaltered through all the hype and other nonsense that occurs up to "the big show".

 

I will also admit that "The Red Carpet" stuff leaves me totally cold, and I will try to reserve judgment on Chris Rock until the end of his hosting duties this year. ;)ML

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To orson4ever, I am apparently another that never "Gave a Darn" about what whom was wearing & the entire "Red Carpet Jazz" All that matters in the final analysis in what is on the screen!!!

 

Don't know if I mentioned this nonsense yet? To save time,etc The OSCARS Producing team & all involved, are going to actually have nominees standing on the stage & when they announce "The Winner" Oops, they don't even say that anymore, due to it possibly hurting the others feelings? So it is of course now: "THE OSCAR GOES TO?"

 

So what are they going to do now, have everyone else slump off-stage & or have them lowered down beneath it?

 

Just taking more away from history, once-again?

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Given we cannot as yet still go back & EDIT stuff.

I had to possibly-(& almost at the last minute as well) Revise something, before tonights OSCARS-(P.S. Is it just me, but whom else cannot stand Barbara Walters & her annual specials? However I can take her with a grain of salt compared to Joan Rivers-(WHAT A NIGHTMARE!!!)

 

The sole revision-(given I only forecasted the top 8) Is the very one I had questioned myself on-(see below)

 

BEST ORIGINAL-SCREENPLAY:

"VERA DRAKE" (Mike Leigh; is also nominated a 2nd time in his career for BD for same drama. So I am going against majority here & predicting this 1 to win here)

 

& I keep going back & fourth on Scorsese vs. Clint?

As he woulda' phrased-it in 1 of his Westerns. I reckon' so I'll stick with the almost 75yr. old *Eastwood winning

 

By the way, this is really neat He will likely do the same again tonight. When Eastwood was up for this award-(BEST DIRECTOR) just last year for "Mystic River" He took his ma' of whom is only turning 96!

 

Scorsese's as many are aware, used his parents in his pictures. Mostly his mama-(1st time was 1973's "Mean Streets" & her final was '95's "Casino" She passed away a couple yrs. later. & his father was last seen-(though briefly) in '93's "Age of Innocence"-(the poor guy didn't get to do a scene with Michelle Pfeiffer though!) He had his largest role though in "GoodFellas" He passed away in 1995-(though both his parents were well into their 80's)

 

Thank You

 

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Well, all is said & done by now of course.

& who watched this yrs. ACADEMYV AWARDS by the way?

 

I knew well in advance about them having nominees on stage,etc But the most asinine of all-(even Donald Trump mentioned this one) Was having an OSCAR awarded in the middle on the audience? Whats next, to save time, throw it to them?

 

Not exactly classy stuff, at least in my view anyway & I know they always tend to be too-long

I've been saying for over 20 years, that to save time they should just show the Best 0riginal-Song contenders as they are used over a montage of said motion picture.

 

Anyway, I hit 17 for 24 correct-(same as 2yrs. ago, when I won in Variety as it's annual "Oscar-Oracle")

& 7 of 8 of the major categories.

But, to this viewers own point of view, the finest thing this time s that they actually cited the best flix & or performances

 

Very let-down though in our own Mr. Robert 0sborne this yr. He generally-(on air) just gives his predictions of the majors-(I recall him doing so for 1997, 2000 & I believe another year. After all, he wrote "THEE BOOK!")

 

Thank You

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I watched on & off during the evening. TCM was showing Kapo again and I missed it last time so I watched that and then turned over to the Oscars. I was glad to see Morgan Freeman finally be acknowledge for his screen work, because I think he's just great (haven't seen the movie but he's deserved it a couple times already.) However, I kind of wanted to see Thomas Haden Church win only because he's made quite a comeback after being out of the business for a while. Same for Virginia Madsden, even though she's been acting all along, it was great to see her get a chance at the Oscars. The rest of the categories I didn't really care who won.

 

I thought Chris Rock was actually pretty good as the host. I know he's getting mixed reviews, because he seems to be a polarizing figure. He was irreverent but he held back. I think it's about time things were mixed up a bit. But I doubt he'll be asked back because there was a lot of hate out there for him. But, again, I thought he did a really good job. And Sean Penn needs to get the stick out of the uncomfortable place.

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He did do a couple of sitcoms and I think a few independent films but I think for about 3 or 4 years after that he ranched in Texas. He was really, really funny on "Wings" (I think his type of humor you either like or don't like.) But, IMO, since he got burned on those two sitcoms he probably took a step back.

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I watched the Oscars the other night and had mixed feelings like everyone else. I applaud the fact that they did actually speed things up this year, because the past couple of Academy Award telecasts have been interminable. I will agree with myidolspencer, that there is little need for performances of all the nominated songs. I usually don't like ANY of the songs that are nominated for Academy Awards, but that's just me.

 

As for myidolspencer's statement that the best performances and films were cited is a matter of debate. One last time, I will state that not only was Paul Giamatti's performance in SIDEWAYS my favorite of the year, it was also one of the best reviewed performances of the year. That he wasn't nominated is a horrendous omission. I also think ETERNAL SUNSHINE OF THE SPOTLESS MIND deserved a Best Picture nomination. But whoever said the Oscars were perfect?

 

As for Chris Rock, well, he was funny some of the time, but also annoyed me a few times during the broadcast. I, like Sean Penn, was not amused by his trivial opinion of Jude Law, if only for the reason that Chris Rock would have us believe that a director would rather make a film with a dubious talent like Tom Cruise, instead of working with a 'real' actor like Jude Law. Maybe that's true, but Cruise isn't even in Jude Law's league, so brackenhe, I suppose I too should remove the aforementioned stick from that uncomfortable place!

 

Also, at the very end of the broadcast, I thought Chris Rock's 'shoutout' to Brooklyn was immature and inappropriate. I was also not amused by the interviews with the movie patrons who had not seen, nor cared for any of the nominated films. It was borderline disrespectful to the nominees and directors, producers, etc., who made these fine films. Most of us already know that the taste of the average movie fan is pretty lame. Just take a look at what the top three Box-Office winners for any given week are and tell me I'm wrong.

 

It's not that I don't have a sense of humor. I laughed at some of Rock's funnier material, but as a film fan, I do take the Oscars seriously and expect the laughs to be mixed with a modicum of respect for the proceedings. Maybe I'm asking too much. I, like brackenhe, also had hopes for Thomas Haden Church and Virginia Madsen, as I loved SIDEWAYS so much. But it's hard to argue with choices like the great Morgan Freeman and the amazing Cate Blanchett, who has been my favorite actress for quite some time now. Either way, for better or worse, I ALWAYS look forward to the Oscars........

 

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Keith--I understand your comments and didn't mean to offend anyone. I thought the movie theater segment was funny, especially when all the sudden Albert Brooks pops up and says "White Chicks--the best movie of the year." That cracked me up especially after all the others he talked to.

 

I'm a huge movie fan, but I really don't take any of these awards shows too seriously. I've watched all my life mainly because I want to see if anything exciting happens. But I wish these people wouldn't take themselves so seriously.

 

And I do agree with you about Tom Cruise. He's not my favorite--not even close.

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